NFL Analysis
2/4/25
10 min read
1st & 10: 10 Plays That Explain How The Chiefs And Eagles Got To The Super Bowl
It’s Super Bowl Week. Without a game to recap for 1st & 10, we will look at some plays that help tell the story about how the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs got to this point as they get ready to square off in Super Bowl LIX.
The plays we’re looking at might not be the biggest or most meaningful ones of the season, but they have something to do with why these are the final two teams and why those plays mattered in the bigger picture.
All stats provided by TruMedia unless noted otherwise
1st & 10 Super Bowl Preview
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 3, 2025
1. Chris Jones Strip Sack - Week 1
The Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl last season on the back of the defense. Kicking off the 2024 season, the Chiefs showed they’d be able to keep that up. In the regular season opener, Kansas City pressured Lamar Jackson 15 times and forced him to -0.27 EPA per play when pressured.
Chris Jones led the team with six pressures, including the strip-sack in which he blew past rookie Roger Rosengarten and knocked the ball out of Jackson’s hands to be recovered by the Chiefs. At the time of the fumble, the game was tied 7-7. Kansas City kicked a field goal to go up 10-7 and did not trail again in the game.
The Chiefs weren’t as dominant on defense during the regular season — they ranked 15th in EPA per play as opposed to fifth in 2023 — but it was clear the top-end talent could still come through in big spots.
Jones finished the season ranked sixth in pressures and took over games in high-leverage moments. His 29 pressures in the fourth quarter ranked third among all defenders.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 3, 2025
2. Saquon Barkey’s First Run of 20+ Yards - Week 1
Saquon Barkley’s first big play with the Eagles came on a touchdown leaking out of the backfield. While that was exciting at the time and brought hope that there might be a Christian McCaffrey-like boost to the Eagles’ passing game, that’s not where Barkley’s impact was felt during the course of the season — he only finished the year with 33 catches, a career low for a full season.
Instead, Barkley’s impact came on the explosive run. He had a run of 20 or more yards in nine games this season, tied for first with Derrick Henry. Few things were more inevitable than a big Barkley run, especially in the second half of games.
Barkley totaled -2.5 rushing EPA in the first half of games but had 35.9 rushing EPA in the third and fourth quarters during the regular season.
This run from Barkley was worth 2.2 EPA. During the regular season, no player had more rushing attempts that added at least 1.0 EPA than Barkley’s 42. He already has seven in the playoffs.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 3, 2025
3. Nick Bolton's Game-Clinching Run Stop - Week 3
Unlike last season, the Kansas City run defense was the defense's best unit. The Chiefs did not allow big plays against the run, as they ranked with the third-lowest explosive rush rate during the regular season.
So much of that came from the linebackers' play, flowing to the ball and not allowing runners to get through the second level. According to FTN, Kansas City’s defense ranked second in second-level yards.
The linebacker play mattered throughout the season because the defensive line wasn’t often holding rushers to limited gains. The Chiefs only ranked 26th in the rate of runs stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage and ranked 28th in power success rate on close down and distances.
In this game against the Falcons, the Chiefs linebackers might have had their splashiest game against the run with four tackles for loss, including this game-clincher on a fourth-and-1 with 57 seconds remaining in the game with the Chiefs up by five.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 3, 2025
4. Eagles Shift The Front - Week 3
It would be easy to forget at this point of the year, given that the New Orleans Saints are the only team to not yet hire a head coach, but the Saints were a buzzsaw through the first two weeks of the season. They had a plus-62 point differential, which was the second-best for a team in the opening two weeks since 2000.
Then, in Week 3, the Eagles slowed them down in a 15-12 win. This was really the first sign of a masterful Vic Fangio defensive game plan.
In order to slow down the Saints' wide-zone run game and play-action, the Eagles went back to an old Fangio staple of five-man fronts but did so with late rotations from the linebackers. On this play, linebacker Zack Baun adds to the line just before the snap and helps set the edge, leaving no room for Alvin Kamara to run as he’s tackled for a 3-yard loss.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 3, 2025
5. A.J. Brown's Deep Touchdown - Week 7
The idea behind this Eagles offense is that there is too much talent, and someone will be open because few defenses, if any, have the players to matchup with every threat on a given play. That level of talent often left someone exposed in a 1-on-1 matchup.
On this fourth down against the Giants, A.J. Brown motioned across the formation to the left side of the offense. That put him on an island outside against CB Nick McCloud. Even as pressure closed in, Jalen Hurts was able to throw the ball up, and Brown beat McCloud for an easy 41-yard touchdown.
Against press coverage, Brown had the eighth-most receiving EPA with the 47th-most routes against it, per Next Gen Stats.
Brown finished the season with 3.04 yards per route run and tied for the ninth-most receptions of 20 or more yards despite playing in only 13 games.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 3, 2025
6. Travis Kelce’s Goal Line Touchdown - Week 10
As has been the case for the past two regular seasons, Travis Kelce was not unleashed. He only averaged 8.5 yards per reception, more than two yards lower than the career-low he had set last season at 10.6, which was nearly two yards lower than his previous career low.
But Kelce still led the team in target share and had the most receptions of 20 or more yards. When the team needed something from Kelce, the "break glass in case of emergency" option was there.
That’s where we get this goal line touchdown, giving us a glimpse of what Kelce can still do when needed. Kelce was in-line before the snap, faked a route outside, broke back into the middle of the field, and left Ja’Quan McMillian on the ground.
After just 1.45 yards per route run in the regular season, Kelce leads the Chiefs with 2.47 yards per route run and is averaging 15.1 yards per reception in the playoffs.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 3, 2025
7. Cooper DeJean’s Pass Breakup - Week 12
The Eagles' defense shifted once rookie second-round pick Cooper DeJean got himself into the lineup as a full-time player. On-off splits can be noisy, but there’s a clear difference in what DeJean added to the defense.
On non-red zone plays, the Eagles allowed one fewer yard per play with DeJean on the field (4.7) than without him (5.7). Philadelphia is in nickel 92.1 percent of the time when DeJean is on the field, but the defense is also better against the run while playing with a significantly higher rate of light boxes (78 percent).
DeJean really helped with the coverage and what the Eagles could do in the secondary with so many plus-coverage defenders. DeJean allowed the Eagles to play a little more aggressively in coverage, bumping up the rate of man coverage used.
That also gave Philadelphia the ability to pass players off in coverage either pre- or post-snap, as the defense did on this play against the Rams. DeJean lined up in the slot, and as the Rams used a late short motion to get Puka Nacua as the inside receiver, DeJean bumped over and ran with Nacua to break up a corner route.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 3, 2025
8. Jalen Carter Pressures Lamar Jackson - Week 13
It feels impossible to mention the Eagles defense without noting the impact Jalen Carter had inside. Carter’s overall pressure numbers weren’t crazy during the regular season, but he rarely came off the field and consumed so much attention to open things up for other interior defenders like Milton Williams, allowing the edge rushers to be blocked 1-on-1 often.
Carter was always around in the backfield to make a big play when needed.
Against the Ravens, Carter had eight pressures — six on early downs — and consistently got Lamar Jackson off his spot. It was not the last time Carter would break through in a meaningful game.
Carter has been even better in the playoffs so far. His 20 pressures in the playoffs are five more than the next-highest defender (teammate Nolan Smith), and that’s nearly 38 percent of his regular pressure total.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 3, 2025
9. Patrick Mahomes scrambles for a touchdown - Week 16
Patrick Mahomes had his lowest scramble rate since 2019 during the 2024 regular season, but he was at his best when he took off. Mahomes averaged 0.94 EPA per play with a 75.7 percent success rate on scrambles during the regular season. Both of those figures were career highs, and they led all quarterbacks in 2024.
Mahomes knows when to take off, and that’s what has led to so many successful runs. He’s not breaking off explosives, but he often gets a yard more than what is needed to move the chains.
This touchdown run against Houston was one of his most aggressive during the regular season, and that has translated to the playoffs, where he averages 0.92 EPA per play and had an 80 percent success rate on 10 scrambles through two games. Mahomes has a 15.2 percent scramble rate so far in the playoffs, more than 2.5 times his 5.7 percent rate during the regular season.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) February 3, 2025
10. Xavier Worthy catch and run - Week 17
When Xavier Worthy was drafted, the popular thought was that the receiver who ran a 4.21 40-time would unlock the deep pass that had been missing in the Kansas City offense. While the Chiefs tried to start him out that way, and there have been some big plays down the field, that hasn't been his best role.
As the season went along, the Chiefs found more success using Worthy as a short-area underneath receiver and creating space for him to use his speed. During the first 13 weeks of the season, Worthy had nine games with an average depth of target of more than 10. His highest since Week 14 is 8.45, and he’s had at least a 23 percent target share in each game since Week 15.
Getting Worthy in space has been helpful for a Chiefs offense that doesn't want to force things downfield. However, that has helped create some explosives, as Worthy has three plays of 20 or more yards in the playoffs.
