NFL Analysis
1/27/25
17 min read
1st & 10 Conference Championships: How We Got Another Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl
One game remains. After a divisional rivalry and one of the best conference rivalries, we have our Super Bowl matchup. The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are deserving participants after having their best offensive games of the season on Sunday. Let’s look at how that happened.
Each week, 1st & 10 will bring you a Monday morning in-depth breakdown of everything you need to know from Sunday’s slate of games. We’ll fill this column with stats, film, and plenty of words to keep you covered on anything you might have missed or want to dive deeper into from Sunday.
All stats provided by TruMedia unless noted otherwise
1st & 10 Conference Championship Games
1. Patrick Mahomes Is Inevitable
Here we are again. After an entire season of worrying (or at least faking worry) about the Kansas City offense, Patrick Mahomes came through with his best game of the season. In the 32-29 win against the Buffalo Bills, Mahomes averaged 0.45 EPA per play and had a 64.1 percent success rate. Both of those marks were easily his highest in a game this season.
When the Chiefs need the quarterback to come through and play at his best, Mahomes has been up to the task.
Mahomes often got the ball out quickly, averaging just 2.54 seconds to throw. Throughout the seasons, the Chiefs went to quick passing in an attempt to take the pass rush out of the game. That worked against the Bills, as Mahomes was only pressured on 23.5 percent of his dropbacks, his lowest rate in a game this season.
The first drive was a masterclass in how the Chiefs planned to control the line of scrimmage. They came out running a ton of RPOs and getting opening passing looks.
When Mahomes did have to hold onto the ball, he was more than willing to scramble. His 17.6 percent scramble rate was the second-highest of his career in a game, behind a Week 6 meeting with the Bills in 2020 (20.6 percent). In the regular season meeting between these two teams this year, Mahomes had his only game without a scramble.
The Bills wanted to keep him in the pocket and did a great job of not letting him breakthrough. However, they couldn't do that in this game.
Mahomes averaged 1.17 EPA per play with a 100 percent success rate on his scrambles in the AFC Championship Game — often using his legs in high-leverage situations.
He rolled to take a bootleg on fourth-and-1, then kept it for a six-yard gain in the second half.
On the following drive, he took a scramble in for a touchdown.
Then, in the fourth quarter, Mahomes had a designed keeper that gave Kansas City the lead.
Kansas City also stretched the Buffalo defense out horizontally by going into empty. Mahomes was in empty on 17.6 percent of plays and averaged 0.74 EPA per play when he did.
A matchup advantage in empty set up the Xavier Worthy touchdown. The Chiefs had Isiah Pacheco and Travis Kelce on the right side, which brought Matt Milano and Rasul Douglas to that side of the field. On the left side, the Chiefs opened in a trips bunch, then motioned Marquise Brown out wide, and Kaiir Elam followed him. Taron Johnson lined up across from JuJu Smith-Schuster, leaving safety Damar Hamlin on Worthy inside.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) January 27, 2025
The third-and-5 contest catch to Worthy also came from empty. The Bills came out in dime and the empty look put 10 defenders at the line of scrimmage, leaving one safety deep and just far enough toward the middle of the field to not be earlier to the pass.
2. Spags Was In His Bag, Too
The Chiefs did not blitz Josh Allen much because that’s one way to get beaten easily. Allen has been one of the league’s best quarterbacks against the blitz (his 0.30 EPA per play against the blitz during the regular season tied with Lamar Jackson for the best mark among quarterbacks), but Spags has mastered the well-timed blitz and used some against the Bills in the fourth quarter.
Four of Kansas City’s six blitzes against Allen came in the fourth quarter. He beat the first but couldn’t do enough on the others. Spanguolo called blitzes on Buffalo’s two final offensive plays.
On a third-and-10, the Bills ran a screen into a zero blitz, but Amari Cooper slipped and then had to jump over tackle Spencer Brown, and that allowed George Karlaftis to catch him from behind. The play only gained five yards.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) January 27, 2025
On fourth-and-5, the Chiefs sent another blitz with just five men, but it involved two defensive backs who were free to knock Allen off his rhythm on what was supposed to be an easy mesh call. Instead, the Chiefs had a wall of zone defenders ready to jump on the crossers, and Allen had to heave a pass down the field, which was still almost caught by Dalton Kincaid.
Allen was pressured on 37 percent of plays with four pass rushers. Chris Jones was a big factor there with five pressures, two on early downs, and three quarterback hits.
After being one of the best quarterbacks under pressure during the regular season, Allen had a 15.4 percent success rate when pressured against the Chiefs, which was his second-worst mark of the season. He had a 12.4-yard average depth of target under pressure but had just 2.0 yards per attempt.
3. Bills Couldn’t Get Going in Short yardage
Buffalo had the shortest average distance to go on third down of the four teams on Sunday (5.8) but managed just a 35.7 percent success rate. On third and short, the Bills tried to use Allen sneaks, but the Chiefs had those scouted. On third-and-3 or less, Buffalo only converted two of six attempts.
According to the referees and replay, a failed sneak early in the fourth quarter turned the ball over, allowing the Chiefs to take the lead and forcing the Bills to play from behind on the next drive.
Having trouble getting going was a theme for the Bills in this game. After some early failed rushing attempts, Buffalo defaulted to having Allen drop back with a 65.5 percent pass rate in the first half. In the second half, the Bills got back into the ground game and passed 44 percent of the time with more plays under center.
Buffalo got the run game going when it wanted to establish it — especially in the six linemen looks against the Chiefs’ base defense — but it didn’t have a passing counter off of it. The Bills also couldn’t find a way to get the run game going when the Chiefs had lighter bodies on the field, failing to produce positive EPA against Kansas City’s nickel and dime packages.
Bills Offense vs. On-Field DBs (per TruMedia)
| On-Field DBs | Plays | EPA/Play | EPA/Pass | EPA/Rush | Success% | Pass Success% | Rush Success% | Yd/Ply | PassRate |
| 4 | 13 | 0.12 | -0.28 | 0.52 | 42.9% | 33.3% | 50.0% | 3.5 | 46.2% |
| 5 | 35 | 0.08 | 0.44 | -0.12 | 47.2% | 50.0% | 42.9% | 5.6 | 40.0% |
| 6 | 18 | 0.36 | 0.38 | -0.07 | 42.1% | 37.5% | 50.0% | 7.3 | 88.9% |
4. Jalen Hurts Had His Best Game
After a concussion kept Jalen Hurts out of the final weeks of the regular season, and a knee injury clouded his status coming into the NFC Championship Game, he had his best game of the season.
There have been times this season when Hurts’s production and efficiency did not match his actual level of play, but this was not the case. Hurts averaged 0.40 EPA per play with a 60 percent success rate — well above his efficiency during the previous two playoff games.
Hurts 2024 Playoff Games (per TruMedia)
| Game | EPA/Play | QBSuccess% | Plays | aDOT | YPA | Comp% | Avg Time To Throw | Blitz% | Pressure% | Press To Sack% |
| WC | 0.05 | 37.9% | 29 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 61.90% | 3.39 | 20.8% | 41.7% | 20.0% |
| DIV | -0.13 | 41.2% | 34 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 75.00% | 2.92 | 30.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% |
| LC | 0.40 | 60.0% | 40 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 71.40% | 2.84 | 54.8% | 32.3% | 20.0% |
Without Cam Jurgens to start the game — and then with Jurgens after Landon Dickerson, who filled in at center, was forced to leave the game with an injury — Washington tested the Philadelphia offense line by sending a ton of extra rushers.
The Commanders blitzed Hurts on 54.8 percent of his dropbacks (he was the only quarterback this weekend with a blitz rate over 17 percent). It was his only game this season with a blitz rate above 50 percent. When blitzed, Hurts went 10-of-16 for 145 yards with 0.32 EPA per play and a 58.8 percent success rate.
The Eagles have often won because of a talent advantage across the offense, and this game put those players in a position to succeed.
The Eagles had a good plan to keep Hurts comfortable in the pocket and take advantage of those mismatches on the outside. Brown drew a lot of attention, which left some other areas of the field open for DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, who also had some jet sweeps in this game to keep the defense off-guard.
Hurts’ ability to handle pressure and play within a rhythm was key to this game. Hurts averaged 0.48 EPA per play and a 73.3 percent success rate on throws within 2.5 seconds of the snap, which was his best combined performance of the season. He also was more in control on extended plays. On plays of 2.5 seconds or more, Hurts averaged 0.43 EPA per play and 9.4 yards per attempt.
It was also clear that Hurts had no limitations as a runner. While he did not scramble often, he was called on for nine designed rushes and had three rushing touchdowns.
The full buy-in on the ground was notable. Watch Saquon Barkley lead the way as a blocker and take on Frankie Luvu on Hurts’s nine-yard touchdown run.
5. Saquon Can Run
Barkley had three rushing touchdowns to go, with three from Hurts and one from Will Shipley, for a total of seven rushing touchdowns on the day.
The rushing success happened early with a 60-yard touchdown on his first touch of the game.
With the interior of the offensive line a question mark in this game — Dickerson starting the game at center made the Eagles worse at two interior positions — the Eagles kept a lot of runs to the outside. According to Next Gen Stats, Barkley had 112 yards and all three of his touchdowns on carries outside of the tackles. He only had six yards on five carries between the tackles.
Barkley’s quickness and vision played a big part in that. On his second touchdown, Frankie Luvu crashed through the middle of the line and into the backfield, but Barkley bounded outside and found a path to the end zone.
It was similar on his third touchdown. There was no immediate penetration, but Barkley bounced outside with nowhere to go between the tackles.
By total rushing EPA, Barkley is having one of the best postseasons for a running back since 2000.
Top Rushing EPA In Playoff Run Since 2000 (Per TruMedia)
| Player | Team | Season | Rush EPA | EPA/Rush | Rush Success% | Rush | Yards |
| Raheem Mostert | SF | 2019 | 15.4 | 0.29 | 50.9% | 53 | 336 |
| Brian Westbrook | PHI | 2006 | 11.5 | 0.35 | 39.4% | 33 | 257 |
| Thomas Jones | CHI | 2006 | 11.0 | 0.20 | 36.4% | 55 | 301 |
| Edgerrin James | IND | 2003 | 9.4 | 0.15 | 54.8% | 62 | 281 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | 2024 | 8.8 | 0.13 | 37.9% | 66 | 442 |
| James Cook | BUF | 2024 | 8.2 | 0.16 | 52.8% | 53 | 272 |
| Warrick Dunn | ATL | 2004 | 7.8 | 0.24 | 34.4% | 32 | 201 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | PHI | 2022 | 7.6 | 0.23 | 48.5% | 33 | 181 |
| Le'Veon Bell | PIT | 2016 | 7.3 | 0.11 | 53.8% | 65 | 357 |
Barkley hasn’t been a killer on every play — he’s only had a 37.6 percent success rate during the playoffs — but it’s known a big play will happen eventually. Often, for the Eagles, that explosive run is the death blow to opposing teams. Even early on, Barkley’s 60-yard touchdown was crushing against a Washington team that settled for a field goal after having two fourth down conversions on an 18-play, 54-yard opening drive.
Per the Next Gen Stats win probability chart, the Eagles went from a 62 percent chance to win after the field goal to a 74 percent chance following Barkley’s touchdown. The ESPN model had a similar jump from 58.2 percent to 69.8 percent.
6. The Eagles defense is stifling
Forcing four turnovers and recovering all three forced fumbles is always going to help win a game — as a result of the turnovers, the Eagles’ average starting field position on offense was their 44-yard line — but the defense did much more than just force turnovers.
The Eagles were able to create pressure and force Jayden Daniels to rush his process without bringing a blitz. Jalen Carter led the team in pressures (eight), working against a backup guard in Trent Scott, filling in for Sam Cosmi. Carter did not record a quarterback hit in the game but was constantly in the backfield, starting with the first play of the game.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) January 27, 2025
Carter’s ability to jump off the line with quickness disrupted multiple plays in this game.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) January 27, 2025
To combat the pass rush and try to spread the defense out, the Commanders went empty on 35.7 percent of Daniels’s dropbacks. He had just a 35 percent success rate and was pressured 50 percent of the time.
Philadelphia’s interior defensive line was nearly unstoppable, with every player coming through with impact plays.
Eagles Interior Defensive Linemen Pressures (per TruMedia)
| Player | Pass Rush Snaps | Pressures | Pressure% | Pressure Share |
| Jalen Carter | 46 | 8 | 17.4% | 42.1% |
| Milton Williams | 31 | 4 | 12.9% | 21.1% |
| Moro Ojomo | 22 | 4 | 18.2% | 21.1% |
| Jordan Davis | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 15.8% |
The dominance along the defensive line also played a massive role against the run, where the Eagles had a 70.4 percent success rate. Washington couldn’t run, and it abandoned that early, forcing Daniels to drop back often. Having the defensive line take control in the ground game put little stress on Philadelphia’s nickel defense against the run.
Philadelphia played with a light box on 56 percent of Washington’s rushing attempts and the Commanders still had their second-lowest rushing success rate of the season.
7. How Good Was the Eagles’ Offensive Performance?
The Eagles scored 55 points, a record in a Conference Championship Game. There have been 568 playoff games since 2000. Philadelphia’s game against Washington ranks fifth in points per drive and 17th in EPA per drive. Here are the top five playoff performances by points per drive:
Most Points Per Drive In Playoff Game Since 2000 (per TruMedia)
| Team | Week | Year | Opponent | Drives | Pts/Drive | EPA/Drive | TD/Drive | Score/Drive |
| Bills | WC | 2021 | Patriots | 8 | 5.88 (1) | 4.55 (1) | 87.5% (1) | 87.5% (1) |
| Colts | WC | 2004 | Broncos | 10 | 4.90 (2) | 3.44 (3) | 70.0% (2) | 70.0% (11) |
| Falcons | LC | 2016 | Packers | 9 | 4.89 (3) | 3.25 (5) | 66.7% (3) | 77.8% (4) |
| Colts | DIV | 2003 | Chiefs | 8 | 4.75 (4) | 3.78 (2) | 62.5% (5) | 75.0% (7) |
| Eagles | LC | 2024 | Commanders | 12 | 4.58 (5) | 2.45 (17) | 66.7% (3) | 66.7% (17) |
8. What do the Bills do now?
This is a crushing blow for the Bills, again one of the league’s best teams running into Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs and falling short of reaching the Super Bowl. By DVOA, the Bills came into the season with two four-year stretches during the past five seasons that qualified as the best four-year runs not to reach a Super Bowl. I would imagine a third, from 2021-2024, will be added to this list.
In many ways, this is another heartbreak for the Bills, but it also shows where the floor might be for a team that was expected to be in a soft rebuild following the loss of players such as Stefon Diggs, Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer.
Buffalo could need to make some tough calls again this offseason. According to Over The Cap, the Bills are currently almost $7 million over the projected 2025 cap. It'll be $1 million under with an easy cut of Von Miller. However, contributors such as Amari Cooper, Mack Hollins, and Damar Hamlin will be free agents — Hollins might be the one most important to be retained.
With Allen, this team should always be close. The 2024 season is proof. Most of what the Bills wanted to do worked throughout the year.
The Bills might just be lacking that star outside Allen at an impact position like receiver or edge rusher. The depth and quality are nice, but there is no one to take over a game on either side of the ball. It might be tough to shop for that level of talent when there is so much else to manage along the roster.
9. Can Washington build on this Year 1 success?
Everything about this season is a win for the Commanders. They were not supposed to be here in the first season under a new head coach and general manager with a rookie quarterback.
The ceiling for Washington is so much higher than I imagined at the start of the season. Daniels can be a true difference-maker at the position and just came off a year in which he ranked seventh in EPA per play. It was easy to overlook throughout the season, but the Commanders were a great offense that ranked fifth in EPA per play.
Last offseason, general manager Adam Peters did an excellent job of bringing in capable veteran free agents who brought a level of competency throughout the roster. A few of them are scheduled to be free agents again—Bobby Wagner, Jeremy Chinn, Dante Fowler, and Zach Ertz, among them.
This offseason, the key should be filling in this roster with high-level talent. This team could use a better No. 2 receiver to complement Terry McLaurin. The secondary is still a slight issue, even after the trade for Mashon Lattimore. The offensive line could use another young piece. Washington has a solid roster, but there are few places where an upgrade would not make sense.
Washington is scheduled to have nearly $88 million in cap space. The Commanders could do almost anything they wanted on the market and not be priced out of it. That could also be a dangerous place, but given the restraint and thought given to last season’s foray into free agency, we could see some more smart pieces added to a roster that should contend for a playoff spot — and a division title — again next season.
10. A Super Bowl Rematch
We’ll have plenty of time to preview the Super Bowl matchup, which will have two weeks of buildup, but it's not too early to get excited.
When these two teams played in the Super Bowl two seasons ago, we had one of the most thrilling games, won by a field goal with eight seconds left on the clock. Jalen Hurts had one of the best quarterbacking performances from a losing team, and Mahomes was near-perfect throughout the game.
That game might be a lot to live up to, but it should be another fun, close, well-schemed game.
