NFL Analysis
12/2/24
23 min read
1st & 10 Week 13: Eagles Defense, Vikings Comeback, Bills Blowout & More
Week 13 gave us the closest week of games we’ve ever seen. Per Jonathan Jones of CBS, 12 games were decided by seven points or fewer, the most in a single-week. Those close games gave us some fun action, so let’s get into it.
Each week, 1st & 10 will bring you a Monday morning an in-depth breakdown of everything you need to know from Sunday’s slate of games. We’ll fill this column with stats, film, and plenty of words to keep you covered on anything you might have missed or want to dive deeper into from Sunday.
All stats provided by TruMedia unless noted otherwise
1st & 10 NFL Week 13
1. The Eagles have a defense that can win games
Since the Philadelphia Eagles’ Week 6 bye, only the Lions have put up better EPA per play on defense. The Eagles have easily been one of the best defensive units in the league. Nowhere was that highlighted more than in Philadelphia’s ability to shut down and disrupt the offense of the Baltimore Ravens in a 24-19 win.
The Ravens were held to their second-lowest success rate of the season (38.4 percent) and their lowest yards per play in a game this year (5.2). Entering the game, Baltimore was fifth in success rate and first in yards per play.
On early-down runs, the Eagles held the Ravens to a 30.4 percent success rate and stuffed 20 percent of runs for zero or no gain. That penetration came with the typical Vic Fangio philosophy of playing with a light box (50 percent of the time on early-down runs).
Philadelphia’s defensive line is quick and powerful, and the interior defenders can make splash plays at any point. Jalen Carter had three tackles for loss in the game and took over the interior.
Per Next Gen Stats, Carter played 70 of the Eagles’ 71 defensive snaps and was double-teamed on 25 of his 43 pass rush snaps. That 58.1 percent rate was still only his third-highest of the season.
The Eagles have been quick to come downhill all season, and the run fits from the second level have been stellar, with Zach Baun being one of the most impressive players in that regard. The edge rusher turned off-ball linebacker had a team-high 13 tackles, eight of which produced a positive play for the defense. He had a tackle on 25.9 percent of his run snaps.
Watch him shoot the gap and take down Derrick Henry in the backfield on a third-and-2 in the second quarter.
Baun also was in on a sack of Jackson in the third quarter.
Without much of a run game to work with, the Ravens had to keep more receivers on the field to throw the ball. Baltimore used 11 personnel on a season-high 46.5 percent of snaps. Because of the offensive personnel and the game situation, the Eagles were able to counter with nickel defense at the highest rate the Ravens have seen this season at 76.1 percent. When the Eagles were in nickel, the Ravens averaged -0.05 EPA per play.
Playing in nickel can be advantageous when that nickel defender can stand up to Derrick Henry as Cooper DeJean did on a third-and-11 in the fourth quarter.
Without blitzing often, just 13.6 percent, the Eagles pressured Lamar Jackson on 54.5 percent of his dropbacks, the highest rate he’s been pressured this season. While under pressure, Jackson averaged 0.27 EPA per play, mostly thanks to scrambles, but he was sacked three times, tied for the most he’s been sacked in a game this season, and his highest sack rate (7.7 percent).
Jalen Carter had eight pressures in the game, while Milton Williams had nine. That interior pressure consistently disrupted the timing of the passing offense. Meanwhile, Josh Sweat had seven pressures off the edge.
Jackson had nearly identical splits to his game against the Chargers but did not hit as many big plays.
The Ravens still were able to move the ball and reached the red zone on 45.5 percent of their drives, the seventh-highest rate in the league this week. But Baltimore only scored a touchdown on 40 percent of their red zone trips and was let down by Justin Tucker, who missed two field goals and an extra point in the game. That’s a seven-point swing in a game that ended up with a five-point margin.
This loss potentially locks the Ravens in as a wild-card team and one that will need to go on the road in the opening weekend of the playoffs. That’s a tough fate for a team that has been one of the best in football for most of the season but has come through some tough losses.
It’s not time to worry about Baltimore, even though this isn’t the ideal situation for this team to be in with some of their worst offensive performances during the past few weeks.
The Eagles are now 10-2 and just a game back of the Lions for the top seed in the NFC. After an inconsistent start to the season, this now looks like a team that can win in multiple ways. The passing offense can be explosive enough, even when the down-to-down consistency might not be there. Jalen Hurts looks smoother and quicker as a runner. Then, there’s Saquon Barkley.
Baltimore was able to hold Barkley down for much of the game, but like Derrick Henry early in the season, Barkley was the closer in this game. He had 63 of his 107 rushing yards in the fourth quarter, including a 25-yard touchdown that put the Eagles up 21-12. Watch left tackle Jordan Mailata pull and open up the gap on this play.
The Eagles have been clicking on both sides of the ball lately and have turned into the complete team many expected to see last season. But with the second-half dropoff and questions coming into the season, it wasn’t clear if the team would be able to match the results the talent would suggest it could. At this point, they have.
This defensive unit can clearly carry games down the stretch and into the playoffs. That’s a huge boost for a team that was 30th in weighted DVOA on defense last season.
2. Vikings Make A Comeback On The Cardinals
The Minnesota Vikings and Arizona Cardinals are two unexpected playoff-caliber teams who gave us one of the more entertaining games of the year in Week 13. Minnesota came back from a 13-point deficit to win 23-22 thanks to an eight-play, 70-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter.
In this game, both defenses threw everything they had at the opposing quarterback. The Vikings blitzed Kyler Murray on 58 percent of his dropbacks. Against the blitz, Murray averaged just 4.0 yards per attempt and -0.15 EPA per play.
While Murray has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league while facing pressure this season (he was seventh in EPA per play when pressured through Week 12), the blitz has been one way to get him. Entering this game, his -0.12 EPA per play against the blit was 28th among quarterbacks. That is music to the ears of Brian Flores.
In addition to those blitzes, the Vikings played a season-high 51 percent man coverage, their second-highest rate under Brian Flores, according to Next Gen Stats. Murray threw into a tight window (a yard or fewer of separation) on 24.4 percent of his attempts.
Still, for most of the game, Murray was able to hold up and produce enough when those extra rushers did not come. He finished with 0.09 EPA per play, which is impressive given how aggressive the Vikings were on defense.
The Cardinals were able to take a 19-6 lead after Murray found Marvin Harrsion Jr. in the end zone.
Arizona had that lead because the defense was able to frustrate the Minnesota offense and Sam Darnold, especially on third down.
The Cardinals blitzed on 42.9 percent of the Vikings’ third downs, and there were constantly free rushers coming at the quarterback.
On third down, Darnold averaged -1.33 EPA per play with a zero percent success rate. He was 0-for-7 with three sacks.
But things turned around for the Minnesota offense in the second half. After averaging -0.65 EPA per play in the first half (while completing 88 percent of his passes), Darnold averaged 0.41 EPA per play in the second.
Darnold was able to extend some plays to make throws. On a third-quarter drive, Darnold had an under-center play-action snap where he stepped up in the pocket against pressure and found Jalen Nailor for 18 yards. That was followed up by another play-action snap where Darnold stepped up and fired a tight-window throw to Justin Jefferson for 15 yards.
That led to a Johnny Mundt touchdown, with Darnold running around a bit before finding the open receiver.
The turning point of the game came when the Cardinals looked as if a win would be sealed. With 4:14 remaining, Arizona had a first-and-goal from the 5-yard line with a 22-16 lead. A false start pushed the Cardinals back five yards, and then an intentional grounding penalty on Kyler Murray set up a second-and-goal from the 25-yard line.
Arizona got back up to the 4-yard line but faced a fourth down. Leading by three, the Cardinals elected to kick a field goal and go up by six points. It’s been a talking point for a few years, but kicking a field goal to go up six late in a game is often a risky strategy.
The six-point lead gives the opponent the information to know it’s touchdown or bust on the following drive to win the game, making their play more aggressive instead of playing for a field goal to tie when trailing by three. We’ve seen this lead backfire on multiple teams.
By ESPN's fourth down numbers, the Cardinals would have an 88.1 percent win probability while going for it in that spot and an 80.1 percent win probability with a field goal.
The Cardinals kicked the field goal to go up six, and the Vikings were aggressive. Minnesota faced a fourth-and-5 from the Arizona 33-yard line with 2:10 remaining.
If the Vikings were trailing by three, it’s possible they elect to attempt a 50-yard field goal to tie the game. Instead, the Vikings knew they had to go for it and converted the fourth down with a 12-yard pass to Justin Jefferson.
Three plays later, the Vikings scored a touchdown to take the lead.
With the win, Minnesota is now 10-2 and still just a game behind the Lions for the lead in the NFC North. With the Lions and Packers playing on Thursday night, the Vikings could suddenly be a half-game back of first place before they play again.
3. The Bills Had Fun In The Snow
In a 35-10 win over the San Francisco 49ers, the Buffalo Bills looked like they were having a ton of fun. On a snow-covered field, Buffalo looked like a team that could do nothing wrong. After a three-and-out to start the game, the 49ers kicked a field goal, but the Bills came back with a touchdown, and the game was never close after that.
Buffalo looked more comfortable on the snow-covered field with a run game that was working early. Ray Davis carried the load on the first touchdown drive, and James Cook had a 65-yard touchdown the next time the Bills got the ball back.
The Bills ran for 220 yards as a team with three touchdowns, including a Josh Allen score in the fourth quarter. Of course, that wasn’t his most impressive play of that day. That would be the one where he was credited with a passing and receiving touchdown on the same play.
On a first-and-goal from the 7-yard line, Allen threw a quick pass to Amari Cooper. After the game, Allen admitted he thought he threw a bad pass, so he went over to the area in case there was a fumble.
But with Cooper wrapped up and Allen floating around, Cooper lateralled the ball to Allen, who took it in for a touchdown.
The Bills set up that play by going for it on fourth-and-2 from the 25-yard line, which turned into an 18-yard pass to Khalil Shakir.
Buffalo hammered inside runs for much of the game and took advantage of the fact that the offensive lines looked like they had much better footing than the defensive lines and could easily control the line of scrimmage.
Having a better offensive line allowed the Bills to lean into the run game. The 49ers couldn’t, as they trailed big for much of the game. They also lost Christian McCaffrey to what is believed to be a season-ending knee injury.
While focusing on that run game, the Bills used an extra offensive lineman on 30.4 percent of their plays. Buffalo had led the league in the use of six offensive linemen coming into the week (13.7 percent with the next-highest team at 7.5 percent) but this was an effort to get more bulk to control the line of scrimmage. It worked. On plays with six offensive linemen, the Bills averaged 8.0 yards per play.
With the game in control, Allen still had some passes, and he ended up averaging 0.79 EPA per play. Having passing, rushing, and receiving touchdowns in the same game will help.
The Bills clinched the AFC East with the win and are still in striking distance of the top overall seed in the AFC, with the Chiefs just a game in front of them.
4. Is Washington’s offense back?
After weeks of worry, the Washington Commanders offense bounced back and looked like the early-season version in a 42-19 win over the Tennessee Titans.
Things had the potential to be different when Terry McLaurin had his first catch while lined up on the right side of the offense. A common complaint about the Kliff Kingsbury offense is how static the alignments can be with receivers lining up in the same spots, according to reports.
McLaurin went to Kingsbury and Dan Quinn earlier this week to request getting the ball earlier and being used in multiple ways. McLaurin only aligned on the right side on 15 percent of his snaps against the Titans, a season-high.
McLaurin had two receiving touchdowns in the game.
While there were differences, what made the Washington offense click was that it looked like the version we saw earlier in the season. A lot of that came from the running game, which averaged 0.23 EPA per play.
Brian Robinson got things started with a 40-yard touchdown run on Washington's first drive.
Having a good run game against the Titans is also impressive. Heading into the game, the Titans were fifth in both EPA per play and success rate against the run.
What stood out in the run game is that Jayden Daniels' scrambles were back. During the past few weeks, Daniels had scrambled less, which lowered the ceiling of the offense. In this game, Daniels scrambled on 15.8 percent of his dropbacks and looked more comfortable in his movements.
While he did have an interception, he finished the game with 0.46 EPA per play, a huge turnaround from the dropoff after his rib injury.
Overall, Washington’s 0.25 EPA per play led the week for offenses. They scored a touchdown on 50 percent of their drives and only punted once. The Commanders scored a touchdown on five of their seven red zone trips in this game. That was a place where this offense struggled, even when it was playing well at the start of the season.
Washington’s red zone touchdowns included a 16-yard crosser from the right side of the field for McLaurin, a slant to McLaurin, and a Daniels scramble. It looked like a well-designed and executed offense.
The Commanders have a favorable schedule to finish the season with games against the Saints, Cowboys, and Falcons. A Week 15 game against the Eagles in Philadelphia could be big for the NFC East, but Washington is nearly guaranteed a playoff spot already.
5. Steelers put up points
The Pittsburgh Steelers' identity this season has been a great defense, lifting up an offense that can connect for a few big plays. It was just two weeks ago that we were discussing how the Steelers had won multiple games this season without scoring an offensive touchdown. Well, Pittsburgh put up 44 points in a 44-38 win against the Cincinnati Bengals.
In this game, Russell Wilson threw for 414 yards and three touchdowns. He had an 80.5 QBR and averaged 0.37 EPA per play. We’ve seen Wilson have big games before, but this was different.
Wilson had a 62.8 percent success rate against the Bengals. That’s easily the highest he’d had as a Steeler, but it was the sixth-highest of his career. Wilson has only hit a 60 percent success rate 11 times and has not done so since the 2020 season in Seattle.
Russell Wilson's Highest Single-Game Succes Rates In His Career (per TruMedia)
While big plays and scoring opportunities have come from Wilson’s moonballs to George Pickens this season, the success against Cincinnati came from throwing underneath more often. Wilson had a 5.1-yard average depth of target, his lowest of the season. He also got the ball out in 2.68 seconds on average, his fastest of the season.
The Steelers were still able to create explosives as Wilson had a season-high 30 percent explosive pass rate despite not throwing the ball deep. Pittsburgh receivers found open space against a Cincinnati defense that has struggled for much of the season.
Wilson accepted the check-down and threw 34 percent of his attempts to running backs in this game. It’s funny that we’re going to highlight that figure as a positive because that’s all Wilson did in Denver, in a negative way. There were so many wasted throws to running backs. But with a smarter plan around it, Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris combined for 99 receiving yards.
In a high-scoring environment that led to a lot of passing, that helped unleash the Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers sacked Joe Burrow four times and had 11 total quarterback hits.
With the win and the Ravens' loss, the Steelers now have a 64 percent chance to win the AFC North, according to The Upshot. We knew Pittsburgh could drag teams down to play in the much for the types of ugly games they like to play, but if there’s another gear to this Steelers offense that can be unleashed against non-Bengals opponents, then this could be a fascinating playoff push.
6. Chargers Picked The Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons easily had their best defensive performance of the season. Justin Herbert was held to -0.41 EPA per play and pressured on 35.7 percent of his dropbacks, while the Los Angeles Chargers only gained 187 yards in the game and did not score an offensive touchdown. Yet, the Chargers came away with a 17-13 win thanks to four Kirk Cousins interceptions.
Cousins struggled to find a rhythm in the passing game and the lack of mobility was an issue, even though he got the ball out quickly enough to only be pressured on 17.5 percent of his dropbacks.
The first interception came off an under-center play-action snap. Atlanta was in pistol on 41.6 percent of plays and Cousins only has 36 total under-center, play-action dropbacks on the season. Against the Chargers, he was 2-of-4 for 17 yards with this pick. Cousins had to step up a little bit, double-clutch, and throw into traffic. Rookie Tarheeb Still picked off the pass.
On the next interception in the third quarter, Cousins had a miscommunication with Darnell Mooney on a fourth-and-5.
Mooney stuttered before going out to the first down line and as Cousins threw to where he expected Mooney to be, Still had another interception and returned it for a touchdown.
Through Week 12, Still had played the most snaps among Chargers cornerbacks and led the group in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap. His lead in both will increase.
The third interception might be the most inexcusable. On a third-and-goal while down by four, Cousins moved up in the pocket and floated a ball into a crowd of players in the end zone. Marcus Maye, who was just claimed off of waivers on Wednesday and played 19 snaps in this game after Alohi Gilman was placed on injured reserve, came down with the interception in the back of the end zone.
Cousins’s final interception came in the fourth quarter on the 14th play of an attempted go-ahead drive. After a sack and a second-and-21, the Falcons got back to a fourth-and-12.
The Chargers came out with three deep safeties, and Derwin James drove on a pass intended for Drake London. However, the pass went inside and helped James jump into the play.
7. Anthony Richardson vs Drake Maye
In a 25-24 Indianapolis win over New England, both Anthony Richardson and Drake Maye showed why they can be quarterbacks that lift their offenses.
Maye was exceptional in this game, completing 80 percent of his passes and adding a 41-yard scramble. He took four sacks behind the Patriots’ offensive line but his 75 QBR suggests a team with a quarterback performance equal to Maye’s would be expected to win 75 percent of the time.
That’s an incredible spot for a rookie quarterback playing with an underwhelming supporting cast and what might be the worst offensive line in the league.
Throughout the season — and in this game — Maye just finds ways to make plays.
Richardson still has ups and downs in down-to-down consistency, but his upside remains sky-high. He’s continually better on film than his completion percentage would suggest, and that was the same against New England when he only completed 50 percent of his passes.
Still with the game on the line, the Colts put together a 19-play, 80-t-yard drive for the game-winning touchdown.
Richardson had a calm strike to Alec Pierce for the touchdown on a fourth-and-goal from the 3-yard line. It was the third fourth-down conversion of the drive.
Then, with 12 seconds left, the Colts decided to go for two and the win. Richardson kept the ball and plowed into the end zone. Those are the types of plays a team can call with a quarterback like that behind center.
Richardson finished the game with 0.20 EPA per play, the seventh-highest of the day, despite a raw box score that would not suggest such a meaningful and successful performance.
8. Chart of the day
The Buccaneers had an up-and-down passing day, but Tampa Bay relied on the running game in a 26-23 overtime win against the Carolina Panthers. Bucky Irving had a career-high 152 rushing yards after setting a previous career-high of 88 yards against the Giants in Week 12.
Despite a four-game losing streak that started in Week 7, the Buccaneers started to find their run game. Since that time, Tampa Bay has been third in total EPA on runs and EPA per play with the fourth-lowest stuff rate.
At 6-6, the Buccaneers still have a 47 percent chance to make the playoffs, per The Upshot.
9. Play of the day
Against his former team, Leonard Williams had a 92-yard pick-6, the longest return for a player listed at 300 pounds or more. It’s not just an impressive interception.
Let’s focus on how Williams made this happen. He lined up as the tackle on the far hash and dropped back into coverage to make the play on the opposite hashmark. That’s an insane play from a player in that position.
He also had two sacks against Aaron Rodgers, capping off a two-week stretch in which Williams completely took over games in the middle of the Seattle defense. Those big plays kept the Seahawks in the game and in the lead in the NFC West.
That’s going to matter because it’s unlikely a wild-card team will come out of the division. Per The Upshot, the Seahawks have a 39 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 36 percent chance to win the division.
10. Houston Keeps Winning While Disappointing
The Houston Texans remain the most frustrating team in the league. Houston beat Jacksonville 23-20 but was rarely impressive while doing so.
C.J. Stroud remains great but has not been able to single-handedly lift the offense from problems this season. Stroud was pressured on 21.1 percent of his dropbacks but was sacked on 25 percent of those pressures. When pressure comes, it’s usually quick, and there are no answers to help Stroud avoid the rush.
Defensively, the Texans lost Azeez Al-Shaair after a late hit that knocked Trevor Lawrence out of the game. When Mac Jones came in, he picked apart the Houston defense and averaged 0.32 EPA per play, though that came on a 37.5 percent success rate. Still, allowing Mac Jones to hit some big plays should not be what the Texans are.
They’re still getting great play from Derek Stingley, Will Anderson, and Danielle Hunter. On offense, you can say the same about Stroud and Nico Collins. But rarely does the full team performance feel like it matches the individual effort of its stars.
