Analysis
6/22/23
7 min read
Looking Back at the 2022 Comeback Player of the Year Race
Betting in an NFL awards market differs from betting in other futures markets because voters determine the winner in awards races. In most futures markets, you’re betting on — or in some cases against — a definitive outcome. For instance, if you bet on the Super Bowl winner this year, there’s not going to be any question about which team actually wins that game. That’s not how things work in awards markets.
In awards markets, who wins is determined by 50 individuals. What you’re really betting on in an awards market is who someone else thinks should win. It requires an entirely different process from any other betting market.
That’s why we’re going to take a look at each awards race from last season, so we can try to see things more from a voter’s perspective than from our own.
For the first part of this series, let’s start with the Comeback Player of the Year race.
The Comeback Player of the Year Race
Last year’s Comeback Player of the Year (CPOY) race was a bit unorthodox because there were no premium quarterbacks coming off a major injury. The year before, Dak Prescott and Joe Burrow were the two CPOY headliners heading into opening day and were, for the most part, the only real contenders throughout the 2021 season, with Burrow edging Prescott down the stretch.
Last year, volatile quarterbacks such as Jameis Winston (+500), Baker Mayfield (+800) and Daniel Jones (+800) were the early CPOY favorites at the position. Premium running backs coming off significant injuries — Derrick Henry (+400), Christian McCaffrey (+900) and Saquon Barkley (+1600) — were among the other primary contenders, although Garrison Hearst is the last running back to win the CPOY back in 2001.
Early in the Season
The New York Giants started hot with Jones serving as a game manager, which catapulted Barkley to an early CPOY lead through the first few weeks. McCaffrey and Winston were Barkley’s primary competition early in the season.
Washington Commanders' rookie RB Brian Robinson was shot during the offseason, causing him to miss all of September. In the weeks leading up to Robinson’s return on October 9, he was initially priced among the favorites in CPOY markets. Ultimately, because Robinson was a rookie, he was ruled ineligible in the CPOY race. My tickets on Robinson were refunded at multiple sportsbooks.
If Robinson was a veteran running back when he ran for nearly 800 yards despite being shot weeks before the season started, he may have won this award.
Mid Season
In the first four weeks of the season, Geno Smith laid a nice foundation for his remarkable 2022 campaign. His Seattle Seahawks went 2-2 during that span while knocking off Russell Wilson’s Denver Broncos in the year’s first installment of Monday Night Football. Smith hung 300 yards passing and two scores in a Week 3 loss to the Atlanta Falcons before doing the same in a shootout victory over the Detroit Lions in Week 4.
The following week in New Orleans, Smith threw for 268 yards and three scores in a 39-32 loss to the Saints. The Seahawks were 2-3 at this point, but Smith was doing things no one outside of Seattle expected. That’s when the Seahawks went on a four-game winning streak where Smith completed 70.6 percent of his passes. That run put Smith right in the thick of things in CPOY betting markets.
At the midseason point, five of our six panelists would have voted for Smith.
Something worth noting is when the Seahawks dominated the Giants in Week 8, Smith gained ground on Barkley in CPOY markets. While another irregularity is that McCaffrey was traded to the contending 49ers in mid-October.
Whenever you place any kind of bet, we encourage you to shop for the best line.
The Second Half of the Season
Smith, McCaffrey and Barkley were the three primary contenders through most of the second half of last season.
After Seattle’s Week 9 victory against the Arizona Cardinals, the Seahawks went 3-5 the rest of the way after their unexpected 6-3 start.
The upstart Giants also stumbled in the second half. Barkley didn’t breach 100 yards rushing in any of his final seven games. Barkley’s continued contention in this race was a little bizarre during the second half of the season.
Starting in Week 8 with a win over the Los Angeles Rams, the 49ers went on a 10-game win streak to finish out the season. McCaffrey was the centerpiece of the offense during that stretch; San Francisco went 9-1 after McCaffrey joined the team.
In the same way Smith gained ground on Barkley when the Seahawks beat the Giants, McCaffrey closed the gap on Smith when the 49ers beat the Seahawks in Week 15 on Thursday Night Football. Jared Goff stormed into contention late in the year, moving from a 40-1 long shot to a 5-1 contender in a matter of weeks.
The Last Week of the Regular Season
With one week to go, the CPOY race had four contenders:
- Geno Smith +175
- Saquon Barkley +175
- Christian McCaffrey +250
- Jared Goff +500
In Week 18, Smith’s Seahawks beat the Rams in overtime to make the playoffs.
Barkley’s Giants had already locked up a playoff spot, so he didn’t play in the regular season finale against the Philadelphia Eagles.
The 49ers were still in contention for the No. 1 seed in the NFC if the Eagles lost to the Giants, so San Francisco’s starters played in Week 18. The 49ers bludgeoned the Kyler Murray-less Cardinals, 38-13, resulting in McCaffrey seeing roughly half the workload he normally would.
Goff’s Lions knocked off the Packers, in Green Bay, on Sunday Night Football in the last game of the regular season. Unfortunately for Lions fans, that Seahawks win against the Rams meant Detroit was on the outside looking in for the playoffs.
The Vote
Smith ultimately took home the 2022 Comeback Player of the Year award behind some of the most unexpected production a quarterback has ever had. Leading the Seahawks to the playoffs in the wake of Wilson’s departure further cemented Smith’s CPOY case.
Comeback Player of the Year voting:
- Geno Smith: 28
- Christian McCaffrey: 12
- Saquon Barkley: 4
- Brandon Graham: 2
- Nick Gates: 2
- Jared Goff: 1
- JJ Watt: 1— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) February 10, 2023
McCaffrey was Smith’s primary challenger in this race, as he should have been. McCaffrey’s arrival transformed the 49ers offense, but ultimately, quarterback is the most valuable position in the sport, which gave Smith the edge with many voters.
Barkley is a dynamic athlete who had a strong year in the country’s biggest market for a Giants team that wasn’t expected to make the playoffs. Coming off a ruptured Achilles tendon that cost him most of the 2021 season, Brandon Graham had 11 sacks at 34 years old for the Eagles’ league-leading pass rush.
Giants offensive lineman Nick Gates returned to action after a career-threatening leg injury robbed him of most of the 2021 season. Arizona’s J.J. Watt is a generational pass rusher who missed over half the 2021 season and played through a heart issue early last year. Watt had 12.5 sacks last season.
Goff had a very similar season to Smith statistically. If the Seahawks lost to the Rams and the Lions got into the playoffs, Goff may have finished as the Comeback Player of the Year.
Follow The 33rd Team Podcast Network on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
