Analysis

7/11/23

17 min read

2023 Best Ball: Top 250 Underdog Fantasy Rankings 3.0

By Josh Larky & Ryan Reynolds

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Our top 250 Underdog Fantasy best ball rankings have a new format. Players are ranked by site average draft position (ADP) and given a 1-5 scale. That ranking indicates Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds’ interest in that player at the current ADP. 

You’ll find dozens of player write-ups to provide additional context behind the ratings/rankings process.

The average exposure to a player is about 8.3 percent, taking someone once every 12 drafts. Below, you can see how to translate our rating system to our ideal player exposures.

Underdog Top 250 Rankings 3.0

Players 1-25

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

If we’re drafting best ball teams with any kind of volume, we don’t want to fade Justin Jefferson. However, if we were drafting just one team and had the first overall pick, we’d lean toward Ja’Marr Chase over Jefferson.

Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders

We’ve considered Davante Adams a relative fade for months, but now his ADP has fallen far enough that we are starting to select Adams a little more often.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns 

We like Nick Chubb, but his ADP has risen to the point that we are trying to be even with the field.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Like Adams, Jonathan Taylor’s falling ADP makes him easier to take. In a vacuum, we’d prefer Saquon Barkley; in some situations, we’d prefer Chris Olave.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry is a classic risk versus reward decision. On the negative side, Henry has a lot of miles on him, he’ll turn 30 in January, and the Titans’ offense is limited with a bottom-tier offensive line. 

On the positive side, he is a one-of-one athlete who gets two fantasy playoff games against the Texans, who he has smashed during the past few seasons.

Players 26-50

Breece Hall, New York Jets

With Breece Hall trending toward being available early in the year, we’ve become more bullish on him. Hall ends an ADP tier at running back.

Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars

Calvin Ridley is another risk versus reward decision point. On the negative side, he’s played five games in two seasons, giving him a volatile floor. On the positive side, he could walk right in and become Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target. In that scenario, Ridley has a top-five ceiling.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

In recent drafts, Najee Harris sometimes falls toward the end of the fourth round. The Steelers offensive line improved this offseason, and Harris could see at least borderline bell cow usage. We’re not outright fading Harris.

DeAndre Hopkins, Free Agent

DeAndre Hopkins’ landing spot will be the key. If he ends up in Kansas City or Buffalo, it would be no surprise if Hopkins moved up a full round. If he lands in New England or Tennessee, chances are he stays in the fourth.

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

Justin Fields breached 1,000 yards on the ground last season, and the Bears gave him a true wide receiver in DJ Moore. Now, Justin Fields is starting to slide into the fifth round. We’re buying that dip.

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Players 51-75

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

T.J. Hockenson’s been starting to consistently fall into the fifth round, which is a pretty interesting discount for a tight end who was a volume monster once he joined Minnesota last year. The downside is the addition of Jordan Addison could realistically hurt Hockenson’s volume; it’s easier to ignore that downside at current costs.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

There are running backs we’d cluster with Aaron Jones, who we can draft a round or two later.

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

We like Diontae Johnson, but his ADP has surged, so we’re no longer actively targeting him.

Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans

We’re still interested in Dameon Pierce, but we don’t need to force it as his ADP slides.

Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs

Kadarius Toney is another risk versus reward option where a talented player could be the second option in Patrick Mahomes’ offense in a best-case scenario. The problem is Toney has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career.

Players 76-100

D’Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles

Hovering around pick 78, D’Andre Swift is an interesting home run swing behind the Eagles’ premium offensive line.

David Montgomery, Detroit Lions

David Montgomery is in a great situation, but he’s started to get steamed, as his ADP was roughly a round higher than a few weeks ago.

Darren Waller, New York Giants

Darren Waller could realistically be Daniel Jones’ top option in the Giants’ improving passing attack.

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

Deshaun Watson is another risk tolerance decision. As we recently discussed on The 33rd Team’s Fantasy and Betting podcast, Watson’s performance in his return to action last season was brutal. However, if he returns to his 2020 form, he has top-five upside at the position.

Dalvin Cook, Free Agent

Where Dalvin Cook signs will determine what happens to his ADP. If he lands in Miami, it skyrockets. If he lands with the Jets, it stagnates or falls some. Say he ends up with a contender as a secondary option for the Chargers, Cowboys or Bengals, Cook’s ADP either stabilizes or rises.

Players 101-125

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara has a court date scheduled for July 31. His ADP could significantly rise or fall based on the result of that event.

Samaje Perine, Denver Broncos

Even if Javonte Williams plays more than we expect, Samaje Perine will have a significant role in the Broncos’ offense.

Daniel Jones, New York Giants

Daniel Jones is the last semi-reliable, dual-threat quarterback available.

Odell Beckham Jr., Baltimore Ravens

Given his injury history and age, it’s impossible to know what Odell Beckham Jr. will look like this season. He’s also in a suddenly crowded Ravens wide receiver room, making him a player we’re only taking if he slides.

Jamaal Williams, New Orleans Saints

The Saints have a top-five offensive line, and Jamaal Williams led the league in rushing touchdowns last season. If Kamara ends up getting suspended, Williams’ ADP will skyrocket. Even if Kamara doesn’t miss a game, Williams has a reasonable ADP.

Players 126-150

Nico Collins, Houston Texans

Nico Collins’ ADP has risen several rounds because he has the clearest path to being the Texans’ default WR1.

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

We are bullish on Russell Wilson having a much better season than he did in 2022.

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen Warren remains a premium handcuff, but he has been getting steadily steamed for weeks. We’re still fine with taking him, but we’re no longer actively targeting him.

Jonathan Mingo, Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have a wide-open wide receiver room. Carolina will give Jonathan Mingo every opportunity to be a factor this season.

Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr has never really been a consistent fantasy option, but the Saints’ easy schedule gives him a higher ceiling than normal.

Players 151-175

Marvin Mims, Denver Broncos

Wilson likes to extend plays and throw the ball downfield. That meshes well with Marvin Mims’ skillset.

Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles

Kenneth Gainwell has been getting steadily steamed to the point we’re taking our foot off the gas. 

Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints

Given Michael Thomas’ recent injury history and the Saints’ lack of proven talent outside of Olave at wide receiver, Juwan Johnson could be the Saints’ second or third option.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

There’s still considerable risk Brock Purdy misses some time, but when he plays, he’ll enjoy one of the best supporting casts in the league.

Tyquan Thornton, New England Patriots

We’ve been heavy on Tyquan Thornton for most of the offseason, but his ADP has risen to a point where we are now being less aggressive.

Players 176-200

Parris Campbell, New York Giants

Parris Campbell’s ADP has steadily risen, but he’s still a reasonable bet to play a big role in the Giants’ passing attack. That said, we prefer him in full PPR.

Jeff Wilson, Miami Dolphins

If Miami signs Cook, Jeff Wilson’s ADP could fall further. If Cook signs elsewhere, Wilson remains a steal.

Tyler Conklin, Minnesota Vikings

We’ve been banging the drum on Tyler Conklin all offseason, and we’re not stopping now. 

Ty Chandler, Minnesota Vikings

Alexander Mattison is a solid back who hasn’t been a starter for even half a season. Ty Chandler is an explosive runner who could make an impact if given an opportunity.

Hayden Hurst, Carolina Panthers

It doesn’t feel great, but Hayden Hurst was well paid, and the Panthers have one of the more limited wide receiver groups in the league. Hurst could have a bigger role than many expect.

Players 201-225

Pierre Strong, New England Patriots

In a worst-case scenario, Pierre Strong is Rhamondre Stevenson’s primary handcuff. In a best-case scenario, New England gives multiple running backs notable roles, and Strong is second in the pecking order.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

Dallas has a muddy tight end room where three players could see meaningful playing time. We want to have some exposure to Jake Ferguson because he could fill most of Dalton Schultz’s vacated role.

Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders

Michael Mayer’s ADP has fallen enough for us to take a few back-of-the-draft shots.

Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs led the league in touches last year, which is why we want to be overweight on his primary handcuff, Zamir White.

Richie James, Kansas City Chiefs

Consider Richie James a limited talent who will have to jump Toney, two recent second-round picks and Marquez Valdes-Scantling for meaningful playing time.

Players 226-250

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

There’s no guarantee he will start the whole season, but Ryan Tannehill is going late, considering some of the production he’s posted.

Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals’ offense will be bad until Kyler Murray returns, and Michael Wilson likely starts the year as the team's fourth receiver.

Malik Davis, Dallas Cowboys

Unless Dallas signs someone, Malik Davis could have a considerable role for a player routinely available in the last round.

Joshua Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers

Whether it’s Joshua Kelley or Isaiah Spiller, we want to find out who Austin Ekeler’s primary backup will be as soon as possible. As things stand, we have a slight lean toward Kelley.

Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders

We are more bearish on the Commanders’ passing attack than most, but Logan Thomas is a plus athlete for the tight end position that often goes undrafted.

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Josh Larky

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Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

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Ryan Reynolds

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Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.