Analysis
7/18/23
6 min read
2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football: Undervalued Quarterbacks
The quarterback position usually holds some stability year over year compared to running backs and tight ends. Instead of buying high-end, name-brand products, we might find more value in focusing on the undervalued quarterbacks in dynasty leagues.
We know the advantage of mobile quarterbacks adding fantasy points via the ground. During the past five seasons, 20 quarterbacks scored 50 fantasy points as a rusher or slightly more than three per game.
The quarterbacks with more than 200 rushing fantasy points during the past five seasons include Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Outside of Watson, the rest would require a heavy investment via a trade or startup selection, depending on one's draft strategy and preference.
As in past articles, we'll look at the market value vs. Ian Miller's dynasty rankings, plus the underlying metrics to find potentially undervalued quarterbacks to consider.
Undervalued Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota VikingsMiller's QB18 vs. KTC QB22
During the past eight seasons, Kirk Cousins ranked as a borderline QB1 in fantasy points per game. Cousins ranked QB14 or better in seven of eight seasons, with efficient production in three previous seasons before 2022.
From 2019 to 2021, Cousins averaged the eighth-most fantasy points over expectation per game at 3.7, which dropped to -1.7 (No. 48) last season.
As a passer, his adjusted yards per attempt regressed to 6.0 (No. 20) after 7.4 (No. 3) in 2021. Cousins still boasted above-average accuracy, with the eighth-best on-target percentage in 2022, down from the fourth-best in 2021.
Volume made up for a lack of efficiency, as Cousins threw the most pass attempts of his career last season.
The Minnesota Vikings leaned into the passing game, with the second-highest pass rate at 66 percent behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They also used the third-fastest pace of play, with 24.8 seconds per snap trailing the Buccaneers and Arizona Cardinals. Assuming the pass volume and pace remain high, it could balance out the slight dip in efficiency for Cousins.
Final Takeaways
Cousins regularly hovers as a high-end QB2 and consistently produces with above-average efficiency. Dalvin Cook's departure seems to validate the narrative and data that the Vikings will run a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense in 2023.
In 12 games without Cook, the veteran quarterback averaged nearly five more pass attempts, 54 passing yards, and a similar touchdown rate and yards per attempt per game.
It's a small sample, but with the questions around how much Alexander Mattison consumes Cook's workload, the Vikings likely lean on the passing game.
Cousins is expected to provide value for the next few years as a high-end or mid-range QB2 based on his market.
To oversimplify, Cousins, as the quarterback on a high-volume passing offense connected to Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison, is undervalued in dynasty leagues. He is especially valuable for dynasty managers in a competitive window.
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ersMiller's QB17 vs. KTC QB26
We've seen much discourse on the Twitterverse regarding Trey Lance. It's a concerning yet noisy group of first-round quarterbacks that played 10 games or fewer in their first two NFL seasons.
Over the past 10 years, Brandon Weeden, Lance, Jordan Love and Paxton Lynch fall into that group. Lance is probably the outlier because of his rushing ability. Unfortunately, injuries derailed Lance's early career, and it's a small career sample of eight games played in two seasons.
As a rookie, Lance ranked third in air yards per attempt (AY/A) at 8.5 behind Joe Burrow and Jimmy Garoppolo (minimum 50 pass attempts). The San Francisco 49ers' offense can boost passing efficiency for Lance, even with the struggles in accuracy. That's evident by the 71.2 percent on-target percentage (No. 83) in the past two seasons.
The upside comes via rushing and mobility. Lance averaged the eighth-most rushing yards per game and the fifth-most expected points per game as a rusher (2021-2022). As a passer, Lance avoids sacks, with a 4.7 percent sack rate (No. 22 out of 111 qualified quarterbacks) in 2021 and 2022.
Final Takeaways
It doesn't make sense to nitpick Lance's profile with his tiny NFL sample. However, we should lean into Lance's athleticism, rushing upside and unknowns as one of the undervalued quarterbacks in dynasty leagues.
Dynasty managers planning to retool or rebuild should look to acquire Lance. We're regularly dealing with small samples in fantasy football, so recency bias sometimes seeps into the upcoming season.
The market values Lance as QB26 in dynasty leagues, nine spots lower than Miller's rankings. That's behind Brock Purdy and Love, who likely have a similar amount or even more uncertainty. Lean into the uncertainty at quarterback, especially with Lance possessing the rushing skills that drive the position, though landing on another team will impact his value.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson, Denver BroncosMiller's QB19 vs KTC QB23
Initially, I almost put Kenny Pickett in this section. That's because Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth landed in other undervalued columns. However, we don't want to push a player to fit the narrative.
There's no denying the struggles for the Denver Broncos' offense and Russell Wilson, though they dealt with injuries to Greg Dulcich, Javonte Williams and Jerry Jeudy at points during the season. We typically associate Wilson with efficiency, but that fell off last season.
From 2018 to 2021, Wilson ranked eighth or better in fantasy points over expected per game (FPOE/G) and the second-most per game at 5.0, as seen above. Last season, Wilson had the worst FPOE/G in his career, and the first time it was below three since 2016.
As a passer, we witnessed similar trends with a career-low 6.9 AY/A versus 7.8 in his career.
From a volume and pace standpoint, the Broncos tied for 11th in pass rate at 60 percent and ranked ninth in seconds per snap (Sec/Snap) at 25.8. For context, the Seahawks averaged a 55 percent pass rate and 26.9 Sec/Snap from 2018 to 2021, with Wilson at quarterback.
Final Takeaways
The Broncos ranked 27th in offensive total expected points added per game (EPA/G) at -5.58 compared to the Seahawks at 1.75 (No. 11) from 2018 to 2021. With Sean Payton as coach, the Saints averaged 5.56 offensive EPA/G (No. 1) during the 2013-2021 seasons.
The Broncos' offense likely rebounds after a brutal 2022 season. They still have quality options at receiver, including Courtland Sutton, Jeudy, Dulcich and Marvin Mims, plus the eventual return of Williams. It's a story of regression in Wilson's favor tied to a head coach that should boost the offensive value for the team.
Though Wilson will turn 35 during the 2023 season, he still provides a solid rushing floor. During the past five seasons, Wilson averaged at least two rushing fantasy points per game (2.98) in all five years. That tied him with Jackson (8.22) and Allen (6.84), as seen above.
The graph above sorts by seasons with at least two Rushing FP/G. Although Wilson has declined from 3.19 Rushing FP/G (2018-2020) to 2.62 (2021-2022), it's still a consistent part of his profile. In the age of recency bias, buy back into Wilson as one of the undervalued quarterbacks in dynasty formats.
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