Fantasy
12/18/23
7 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: NFL Week 16 Waiver Wire Targets
Welcome to The 33rd Team’s fantasy football waiver wire article. The players listed below are recommended acquisitions in both points-per-reception (PPR) and half-PPR scoring formats. The list will be updated as news breaks throughout the week.
Players listed below are available in at least 50 percent of Yahoo and/or ESPN leagues unless otherwise stated.
Check out Fantasy Takeaways From Every Week 15 Game here.
Top Waiver Wire Options
Ty Chandler, Minnesota Vikings RB
Thirty-plus percent of current Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB)
No. 2 RB Ty Chandler showcased his explosiveness with No. 1 RB Alexander Mattison sidelined in Week 15. Chandler had 157 yards from scrimmage, one rushing touchdown, three receptions on four targets and 23 rushing attempts.
Minnesota coach Kevin O’Connell told reporters on Monday that Chandler will have a “featured role” in the offense. Fantasy managers should treat Chandler as a high-end RB2 regardless of Mattison’s status.
Josh Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers WR
Fourteen percent of current FAAB
Josh Palmer averaged 3.77 yards per route run (YPRR), highlighted by a 79-yard receiving touchdown, in his return from injured reserve. The team remains tight-lipped regarding No. 1 WR Keenan Allen’s heel injury, but Palmer is locked into the No. 2 wide receiver role at worst.
Palmer’s field-stretching role (12.7-yard average depth of target (aDot) bodes well against a Buffalo Bills’ defense surrendering explosive pass plays to opposing NFL wide receivers at the league’s 13th-highest rate (17.3 percent).
Noah Brown, Houston Texans WR
Fourteen percent of current FAAB
Fill-in No. 1 WR Noah Brown caught eight of 11 targets for 82 receiving yards and one touchdown, operating as Houston’s featured Week 15 pass catcher. No. 1 WR Nico Collins suffered his second 2023 calf strain in Week 14 and failed to practice in Week 15; a Week 16 return is not guaranteed.
Brown’s 2.15 YPRR is promising, but he faces a tough, if banged-up, Cleveland Browns secondary in Week 16. C.J. Stroud’s potential return (concussion) would stabilize Brown’s Week 16 WR3 viability.
Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts WR
Thirteen percent of current FAAB
Michael Pittman Jr. entered the NFL concussion protocol in Week 15, jeopardizing his Week 16 availability. Slot WR Josh Downs should operate in a high-volume Week 16 role against an Atlanta Falcons’ slot-coverage unit that ranks 18th in adjusted YPRR allowed (0.82) and ties for 21st in explosive pass plays allowed rate (16.7 percent).
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions WR
Twelve percent of current FAAB
In Fantasy Takeaways, I wrote, “Detroit Lions WR Jameson Williams ran a season-high 26 routes in Week 15, leapfrogging WR Josh Reynolds (19) while closely trailing No. 1 WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (34) and TE Sam LaPorta (28).”
Increased opportunity improves Williams’ week-to-week fantasy reliability in his field-stretching role. He gets an indoor matchup against a Minnesota Vikings wide receiver-coverage unit that ranks 14th in explosive pass plays allowed rate (15.9 percent), 24th in adjusted yards allowed per route run (0.89) and 29th in catch rate allowed (67.5 percent).
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders RB
Eleven percent of current FAAB
As detailed in Fantasy Takeaways, Las Vegas Raiders No. 2 RB Zamir White totaled 85 yards from scrimmage, one touchdown and three receptions on four targets, crucially logging a 50 percent backfield snap share in the two-minute drill with No. 1 RB Josh Jacobs sidelined due to a quadriceps strain. Running backs who suffer this injury average 1.8 games missed per Doctor of Physical Therapy (DPT) Adam Hutchison’s Injury Report, so it is more likely than not that Jacobs will miss Week 16.
Trey Sermon, Indianapolis Colts RB
Ten percent of current FAAB
The Week 16 availability of Indianapolis Colts' No. 1 and 2 running backs — Jonathan Taylor (thumb/UCL surgery) and Zack Moss (shoulder) — is unknown at this point.
No. 3 RB Trey Sermon led the way following Moss’ Week 15 exit, efficiently averaging 5.2 yards per rushing attempt on 17 attempts while averaging 3.65 yards after contact per attempt, the fifth-best among 29 Week 15 NFL running backs with at least 10 rushing attempts. Indianapolis faces a stout yet injury-riddled Atlanta Falcons defensive front in Week 16.
Streaming Options
Quarterbacks
Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns (@ Houston Texans)
Six percent of current FAAB
As detailed in Fantasy Takeaways, Joe Flacco is the QB10 in fantasy scoring over the past three weeks and leads the league in both passing attempts (44.3) and yards passing (313.0) per game. The Houston Texans’ pass defense allows the league’s third-highest completion rate (68.6 percent) and allows pass plays of more than 15 yards at the league’s fifth-highest rate (15.9 percent).
Nick Mullens, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Detroit Lions)
Five percent of current FAAB
Nick Mullens debuted in Week 15, totaling 303 yards passing, two touchdowns passing, two interceptions and 10 yards rushing on two carries. Mullens played conservatively and trusted his elite pass-catching corps to make plays post-catch.
Mullens attempted 57.6 percent of passes within five yards of the line of scrimmage and finished with Week 15’s third-best completion rate (78.8 percent). Minnesota’s matchup with the Lions’ third-ranked offense (407.1 yards from scrimmage per game) yields Week 16’s second-highest FanDuel over/under (46.5).
Tight Ends
Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Buffalo Bills)
Eight percent of current FAAB
Gerald Everett has earned eight targets in consecutive weeks and will continue operating in a featured role if Keenan Allen cannot return from his Week 14 heel injury. Everett’s 5.7 yards after the catch per reception average ranks 10th highest among 42 NFL tight ends with at least 25 targets, and Buffalo could be without multiple interior coverage defenders.
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots (@ Denver Broncos)
Eight percent of current FAAB
Hunter Henry faces a Denver Broncos defense that ranks bottom-five in both catch rate (75.9 percent) and explosive 16-plus-yard pass plays allowed rate (18.8 percent) to opposing tight ends. Fantasy managers must monitor news regarding Henry’s Week 15 knee injury, but the veteran tight end ranks in the top three in YPRR (2.08) and PPR points per game (19.3) among 15 NFL tight ends with at least 10 targets over the last two weeks.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
Five percent of current FAAB
The Seattle Seahawks’ tight end coverage unit ranks 23rd or worse in catch rate allowed (74.7 percent) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (14.3 percent), and it ranks 31st in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap (0.92). Chigoziem Okonkwo averages a 20.4 percent TPRR rate and 1.93 YPRR over the last two weeks. He is a serviceable replacement if Derrick Henry’s knee injury jeopardizes his Week 16 availability.
Kicker
Michael Badgley, Detroit Lions (@ Minnesota Vikings)
Five percent of current FAAB
As mentioned in the Mullens section above, this game’s 46.5 over/under is Week 16’s second-highest. Detroit’s new kicker, Michael Badgley, should attempt field goals and extra points frequently, protected from the elements by U.S. Bank Stadium’s roof.
Defenses
Green Bay Packers D/ST (@ Carolina Panthers)
Nine percent of current FAAB
The Green Bay Packers rank top 12 in both quarterback pressure rate (37.9 percent) and yards passing allowed per game (211.1). Struggling Carolina Panthers QB Bryce Young plays behind the NFL’s seventh-worst offensive line (40.9 percent quarterback pressure rate allowed) and averages 3.92 sacks per game, the fourth-most among 43 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts.
Cincinnati Bengals D/ST (@ Pittsburgh Steelers)
Six percent of current FAAB
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ offensive line’s 38.5 percent quarterback pressure rate allowed ranks 10th-highest in the league. The unit will protect dismal backup QB Mason Rudolph (or starting QB Kenny Pickett if he can return from in-season ankle surgery). The Cincinnati Bengals’ mid-tier pass rush (35.1 percent quarterback pressure rate, 15th in the league) can produce, given the matchup.
Looking Ahead to Week 17
Los Angeles Rams D/ST (@ New York Giants)
Two percent of current FAAB
The New York Giants’ 43.4 percent quarterback pressure allowed rate is the NFL’s second-highest. Los Angeles Rams DL Aaron Donald ranks in the top 12 among NFL defensive linemen with a 16.4 quarterback pressure rate.
Have a question about a player on or off this list? Join our Discord and hop into the waiver wire channel. We’ll answer as many questions as we can on our Tuesday Waiver Wire show.
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