Analysis
10/20/23
5 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: NFL Week 7 Underdog Fantasy Battle Royale Picks
If you are new to Battle Royale, check out our strategy guide.
Slate Overview
This slate is very ugly (but fun, we tell ourselves!) so I will change my approach in the process this week. There is one game over 45 projected points while half of the games are projected 41 points or lower. Scores in Battle Royale likely will be low and touchdowns will be hard to come by. Quite frankly, it’s a mess.
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Quarterbacks
Seven starting quarterbacks are questionable or out and there are another few who are not fantasy relevant. On top of that, there are four elite options this week that deeper selections would need to beat out to win. That dwindles the player pool significantly.
Tier 1: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson
Tier 2: Justin Herbert, Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff
The Rest: Deshaun Watson, Jordan Love, Sam Howell
Mahomes is in a smash spot this week against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The touchdowns haven’t quite been there this season, but I expect some positive regression. The Travis Kelce stack should be taken whenever possible, it’s very rare to acquire. Mahomes can be run alone, but Rashee Rice and Kadarius Toney are valid options due to the fragility of the slate.
Herbert is in a bad spot with this stout Kansas City Chiefs defense, a low team total, and an injured thumb. I also do not expect the rushing production to continue as it has. I will stay away due to the relatively high ADP.
Smith and Stafford are high-upside options that are not always drafted. Both players' teams are toward the top of team totals, and the opposition’s pass defenses are bad.
It’s important to stay diligent on potential stacks as each draft unfolds. It is easy to get buried or boxed out on quarterback to pass catcher stacks, which is highly unfavorable. Keep your options open and reach for a quarterback beyond the third round if needed.
Running Backs
It can be argued that 10 of the 20 teams in this slate have unplayable running backs due to injury or timeshares. This leads to a very shallow slate for running backs with a massive cliff after RB7, Aaron Jones. From there, Brian Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jerome Ford and James Cook are viable options to mix in. Given that the receiver position feels deeper, lean into more single RB builds than usual.
An argument can be made for Kenneth Walker over Austin Ekeler this week. Sportsbooks agree, putting Walker head and shoulders above other RBs on the slate in touchdown likelihood at 58 percent. Ekeler certainly has his receiving upside, but he is tied with Saquon Barkley for RB4 on the slate in touchdown likelihood at 45 percent.
Bijan Robinson has fallen a bit in recent weeks, and rightfully so, but he still appears quite over-drafted. He is an exceptional and fun player but the Atlanta Falcons have not used him as such, and his team’s total is extremely low against an elite run defense.
Isaiah Pacheco has quietly taken over the Chiefs’ backfield, and I don’t believe the field has adjusted enough against a porous defense. I’m taking him over Robinson and Barkley.
Gibbs is in for a larger-than-usual role due to injuries, but the Detroit Lions don't appear to trust him in short-yardage or pass-blocking situations. If Craig Reynolds is out, Gibbs becomes even more appealing.
Wide Receivers
There are five receivers at the top of the draft. They are followed by another tier of four guys, and then it’s everyone else. The last of the nearly always drafted players (ADP 33 and up) don’t feel great to take at 16 percent rostership. With very minimal projection difference, the much lesser-owned players are sharper selections.
Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs rightfully sit atop the draft. There isn't too much of a difference between them, which the sportsbooks agree with, setting their touchdown and receiving yard lines almost identical. Both are fantastic picks but also provide meaningful leverage opportunities with teammates.
I love the Seattle Seahawks relative to the field this week and will be prioritizing DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Monitor the injury report on Metcalf — if he doesn’t suit up, Jaxon Smith-Njigba becomes a clear play. The Seahawks are projected for lots of points, and these players all provide leverage on the always-drafted Walker.
Diontae Johnson has practiced fully, so expect him to be a full-go for the Pittsburgh Steelers. He absolutely should not be going nearly untouched. When healthy he is at least as good as George Pickens. Sportsbooks agree, setting their lines nearly the same in Johnson’s first week back.
A handful of mostly undrafted players who have a reasonable chance at scoring touchdowns, providing leverage or both include Johnson, Gabe Davis, Jakobi Meyers, Drake London, Joshua Palmer, Romeo Doubs, Rashee Rice and Courtland Sutton.
Tight End
Kelce, Mark Andrews and Sam LaPorta are each in their own tier, and then there’s a dozen or so players who project within a point or two. If you don’t get one of those three, scroll down at tight end to avoid bad chalk.
Darren Waller and Kyle Pitts are likely being drafted far too often. Sportsbooks do not remotely favor either of them to score, putting their chances well below many players who are lower in ADP. Their yardage props are 36.5 and 32.5, respectively. Luke Musgrave projects better than both, for what it’s worth.
Tyler Higbee is being drafted, well almost entirely undrafted, as TE17. Sportsbooks have him as fourth most likely to score and only slightly behind LaPorta. His receiving yard prop is at 26.5, just 10 lower than TE4, Waller. For reference, that is the difference between Davante Adams and Keenan Allen, who many would value similarly.
Logan Thomas (TE7) through Zach Ertz (TE19) project very similarly and can be mixed in based on stacks, leverage and roster construction.
