Fantasy

4/7/23

5 min read

2023 Fantasy Football: Recapping Allen-Watson Dynasty Trade

By Josh Larky

Dynasty Trade Recap

I made a recent Superflex Dynasty trade with Dave Kluge — naturally, Twitter went into a frenzy, with more than 100 people weighing in via the comments section. This article breaks that trade down, assessing the risk and rewards for each side. Below, you'll find the now semi-viral tweet that started the discussion.

 

Trade Recap

I'll walk through player age, fantasy point history and understanding of the draft picks traded between the two of us, ending with a brief look at 2023 expectations for Josh Allen and Deshaun Watson. But first, let's make sure we all understand the trade itself.

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Larky Receives

  • Deshaun Watson
  • Kluge's 2024 1st-Round Rookie Pick
  • Kluge's 2025 1st-Round Rookie Pick

Starters on Larky's Roster

Notable Backups on Larky's Roster

Kluge Receives

  • Josh Allen
  • Larky's 2024 2nd-Round Rookie Pick
  • Larky's 2025 3rd-Round Rookie Pick

Starters on Kluge's Roster

Notable Backups on Kluge's Roster

Age

  • Allen turns 27 at the end of May.
  • Watson turns 28 in September.
  • Age should not be a significant factor in this trade, given how long quarterback's careers often are.

Fantasy Point History

Player 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Josh Allen College 17.3 18 24.7 23.7 24.7
Deshaun Watson 24.1 20.7 21.3 23.1 Suspended 14.3
  • Watson started his career with better fantasy output and before his abbreviated 2022 season, was generally scoring 1-3 fewer fantasy points per game than Allen.
  • Watson's six-game sample from 2022, after taking nearly two years off from football due to suspension, is highly concerning and represents low-end QB2 numbers for fantasy football.
  • In many ways, this dynasty trade hinges on whether or not Watson can regain his form from the 2017-2020 seasons.

 

Draft Picks

Larky Receives

  • The best pick in this trade is the 2024 first-round rookie pick, which we can assume will be in the 1.07-1.10 range, given Kluge's team likely finishes in the top half of the league for 2023.
  • For the 2025 first-round rookie pick, while this will also be a blue-chip prospect, it's a full two seasons away from materializing.

Kluge Receives

  • The 2024 second-round rookie pick will likely be in the 2.07-2.10 range, given the strength of Larky's roster.
  • We can mostly throw out the 2025 third-round rookie pick for all intents and purposes, given the elite QBs and other picks involved in the trade.
    • For context, a 2023 third-round rookie pick likely nets you a backup running back with upside or a low-ceiling wide receiver prospect.
    • This year, RB Roschon Johnson (scouting report) and WR Jayden Reed (scouting report) fit the bill.

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2023 Expectations

Josh Allen

  • Allen is at worst the QB3 off the board in redraft, going in an elite tier with Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes.
  • After three straight seasons with 23.7-24.7 fantasy points per game, Allen has a narrow range of outcomes, and it's tough to see him finishing lower than QB3 per game if not QB1 per game overall.
  • Pre-2023 NFL Draft, Allen has a below-average supporting cast:

Deshaun Watson

  • Watson took two years off from football due to suspension and did poorly — both in real life and for fantasy football — upon returning.
  • His first four seasons in the league are among the best historically for both real-life and fantasy football.
  • Watson goes off the board slightly after quarterbacks such as Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. He's being valued as a low-end QB1 ahead of 2023.
  • While Watson's first four seasons would have put him close to the Mahomes-Allen-Hurts tier, his suspension and subsequent 2022 showing demonstrated his fantasy floor is similar to Derek Carr and Ryan Tannehill.
  • Pre-2023 NFL Draft, Watson has an above-average supporting cast:
    • Amari Cooper is a slightly above-average WR1.
    • Elijah Moore has the potential to be a well above-average WR2 but has considerable downside.
    • Donovan Peoples-Jones broke out last season and looks to be one of the NFL's better WR3s.
    • David Njoku is an above-average pass-catching tight end.
    • Nick Chubb is still one of the NFL's better runners.
  • This trade rests on how Watson looks in 2023. Four weeks into the 2023 season, we should have a better idea of which version of Watson is on the field.

Now that you've read this breakdown, let us know in the Twitter comments who you think won this trade. Given how many people have publicly — and staunchly — supported each side, it's reasonable to assume this was a fair superflex dynasty trade.

Tags: 2023 Fantasy Football, Deshaun Watson, Dynasty See More

Josh Larky

Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

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