Analysis

8/9/23

12 min read

2023 Fantasy Football Redraft Rankings

By Matthew Hill

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An offseason filled with speculation and hot takes is finally ready to be put to rest with the kickoff of the first full week of preseason games. The rise of best ball means people have been drafting for months. However, I offer my initial run of redraft rankings for those who do not partake in the contests or are having difficulty transitioning from a best ball mindset to traditional redraft. 

The following features my initial rankings with explanations for players I have considerably above or below the Fantasy Pros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). Players locked into their roles will not likely see movement in their ADP in the coming weeks. 

But for rookies and veterans in new places, now is an excellent time to select them before game highlights shift their ADPs radically. 

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins, Vikings

Kirk Cousins posted a top-seven overall finish last season, and the Vikings spent the 23rd overall pick on a WR2 upgrade in Jordan Addison. They also released RB Dalvin Cook, signaling Minnesota is prepared to rely even more on the veteran’s arm. His ECR outside of the top 12 is several spots too low. 

Jared Goff, Lions

Like Cousins, Jared Goff is another “boring” veteran coming off of a top-10 finish. Goff is being overlooked despite his situation improving with the addition of RB Jahmyr Gibbs and TE Sam LaPorta. Goff offers mid-QB1 upside at a QB16 ECR cost. 

Anthony Richardson, Colts

Anthony Richardson was the consensus top quarterback in rookie drafts, but his “create-a-player” athleticism has been discounted in redraft. Unless we start to hear more talk of Richardson sitting behind Gardner Minshew to begin the season, I have the athletic marvel just outside my top 12. 

Daniel Jones, Giants

Despite not having Richardson’s athletic profile, Daniel Jones offers underrated dual-threat ability. Jones was fantasy’s QB8 last season behind his 708 yards rushing and seven touchdowns on the ground. He is a low-end QB1, with his ECR of QB14 being several spots too low. 

Running Backs

Tony Pollard, Cowboys

Tony Pollard has an outside shot at finishing as the top running back in fantasy. Still, it has taken a while for the public to trust the Cowboys' backfield is ultimately his. With his ADP slowly climbing into the middle of Round 2, securing him in drafts could take a late first. 

Alexander Mattison, Vikings

Speaking of the public being slow to buy a running back’s new reality, Alexander Mattison is being valued as a low-end RB2 despite everything pointing to Mattison being the Vikings’ feature back. 

This hesitancy makes Mattison a buy. Yes, the ship has sailed on getting Mattison near the double-digit rounds like earlier this best ball season when there was uncertainty surrounding Dalvin Cook. However, he remains a great value with mid-range RB1 upside at an RB22 (ECR) cost. His price will only continue to rise this preseason. 

Rachaad White, Buccaneers

Rachaad White has feature-back size (6-foot, 214 pounds), an elite receiving profile and little competition for touches. Tampa Bay’s offense could be a mess, but White should see enough checkdowns and designed passes to make up for a potentially limited number of goal-line carries. 

Tampa Bay’s anticipated offensive woes should factor into his ADP. However, his ADP is too low for the volume he is set to receive. His RB26 ECR is at least a half dozen spots too low. 

James Cook, Bills

Everything coming out of Buffalo indicates James Cook is the unquestioned starter. Cook is seven spots ahead of consensus on my board as the RB25, but that could be too conservative. 

Even if Damien Harris and Latavius Murray steal early down and red zone touches, James Cook should still post RB2 numbers as the Bills’ primary rusher and receiving back. 

De'Von Achane, Miami

It seemed like Dalvin Cook signing with Miami was inevitable. However, the longer Cook remains unsigned, the more interesting De’Von Achane becomes. Regardless of where Cook signs, Achane should command quality touches on passing downs and get designed touches, allowing his world-class speed (4.32 40-yard dash time) to shine. 

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson, Steelers

Diontae Johnson saw elite volume in 2022, receiving a 27 percent target share and a 36 percent air yard share. Unfortunately for Johnson, he could not convert one of his 147 targets into a touchdown. 

Having recorded 15 touchdowns the previous two seasons, Johnson is the epitome of a “positive regression” candidate. The Steelers’ passing game should be heavily consolidated between Johnson and George Pickens, making Johnson a decent PPR floor play. 

If he can come close to replicating his 2021 statistics, where he found the end zone eight times, Johnson has the potential to flirt with low-end WR1 numbers. That makes him one of the early draft season’s most undervalued receivers. 

Zay Flowers, Ravens

The Odell Beckham Jr. signing and the uncertainty of Rashod Bateman's recovery have somewhat overshadowed the addition of rookie Zay Flowers. 

Flowers, who has looked the part of a go-to receiver, has been one of the first receivers off the board in rookie drafts. He has a realistic path to become Baltimore’s WR1 quickly. Both his ADP and ECR are half a round too low. 

Skyy Moore, Chiefs

Kansas City entered the offseason with one of the league’s most wide-open wide receiver depth charts. It looks as if Skyy Moore has taken advantage. Moore struggled early last season, but he flashed in the second half with a pair of five-reception games.

He earned more playing time as the season progressed, culminating in a 57 percent snap share in the AFC Championship Game. Reports out of Kansas City indicate Moore has rarely left the field, including playing in two-receiver sets. 

He is the favorite to be the Chiefs’ slot receiver when they go three-wide, putting him in a position for a significant Year 2 leap. Week 16 and 17 home games vs. Las Vegas and Cincinnati only add to Moore’s potential ceiling. 

Marvin Mims, Broncos

Everything seems to be setting up Marvin Mims to be a significant contributor to Denver’s offense from the start. The Broncos took Mims with their top pick, indicating a plan for the deep threat with 4.35 speed. 

Mims has reportedly established a solid rapport with Russell Wilson. With Tim Patrick lost for the season, Mims should see a significant snap share as early as Week 1. 

Justyn Ross, Chiefs

Elite ceilings win fantasy championships. Few players come with a higher ceiling in the later rounds than Justyn Ross. We all know about his injury history, which is baked into his cost. However, it seems like each day brings a new highlight reel catch or positive report out of camp. 

The range of outcomes is huge. He could not make the active roster or become the Chiefs’ WR1. The good news? It won’t cost a lot to roll the dice on Ross. 

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid, Bills

While the argument against drafting Dalton Kincaid mainly revolves around the underwhelming history of rookie tight end production, he wasn’t drafted 25th overall for his blocking ability. 

Buffalo views the talented rookie more as a ‘big slot’ receiver than an inline tight end. It’s unknown if Kincaid’s usage will come close to matching the hype coming out of camp. That said, Kincaid has a clear path to being the third option in the high-powered passing game. 

That gives him as high of a ceiling as you can find from a late-round tight end. Kincaid is eight spots ahead of consensus as a low-end TE1 on my board.

Sam LaPorta, Lions

Like Kincaid, Sam LaPorta doesn’t have much redraft hype due to rookie tight end production concerns. Also, like Kincaid, LaPorta has a clear path to a sizable Week 1 target share. 

Reports indicate LaPorta is the Lions’ clear TE1, and with uncertainty behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, LaPorta has a sneaky high floor. With an ECR of TE19, he is being undervalued. 

Taysom Hill, Saints

Taysom Hill should continue to play the same hybrid tight end/receiver/running back role for the Saints that allowed him to finish as fantasy’s TE7 overall in 2022. New QB Derek Carr should not change how New Orleans uses its offensive weapon, either. With an ECR of TE27, Hill is one of the early draft season’s most undervalued players. 

Hayden Hurst, Panthers

Although the Panthers’ wide receiver depth chart remains uncertain, what is certain is Hayden Hurst should see a high snap share and is poised to be one of Bryce Young’s most targeted players. 

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Matthew Hill

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Writing and providing draft and in-season rankings since 2014, Matthew Hill was chosen FantasyPro's “Most Accurate Expert” for 2018. In addition to his 2018 first place in-season accuracy finish, Matthew’s draft rankings are among the industry's most accurate, finishing in the top 12 for 2019 to 2021.