Fantasy
12/14/23
7 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: Targets, Fades for NFL Week 15
Welcome to Round 1 of the fantasy football playoffs.
For the overachievers with a Round 1 bye, sit back and enjoy the spoils of a week without the stress of start-sit dilemmas.
For those without said benefit, it is do-or-die from this point onward. Every lineup decision could be the difference between advancing to the next round or ending up in the consolation bracket
Below, we will break down one player at each position to target (love) and one player at each position to avoid (hate) for your Week 15 fantasy football lineups based on matchups, injuries, strategies and more.
Players We Love This Week
Sam Howell, QB, Commanders (at LAR)
Sam Howell is far from perfect on the field, but he gets the job done for fantasy purposes.
Through 14 weeks, he is the fantasy QB6 behind only Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy. Howell has finished as a top-10 quarterback or better in six consecutive weeks and eight of the last nine.
Howell’s impressive passing volume can be (at least partially) attributed to a Washington Commanders’ bottom-of-the-barrel defense that is allowing an NFL-high 30.4 points per game. He will be well-rested coming off of the Commanders’ Week 14 bye to face the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams' defense ranks 25th against fantasy quarterbacks and has given up three consecutive 20-fantasy-point games to signal-callers.
Howell is a locked-in top-12 play this week, given the matchup and his continuing success all year.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Titans (vs. HOU)
DeAndre Hopkins keeps delivering for fantasy managers as though it was 2020 again. Since the Tennessee Titans’ Week 7 bye, Hopkins has scored six touchdowns and is the WR9 in half-PPR scoring. He has been targeted 24 times in the last two weeks alone. Most recently, he caught seven-of-12 targets for 124 yards and a score against the Miami Dolphins.
Hopkins is a bit boom-or-bust on an unreliable offense, but he has been more reliable lately because of his target volume.
This week, he and the Titans face off against his former squad, the Houston Texans, in what should be a fun revenge game for the veteran wideout. Hopkins has only faced the Texans once — in 2021, when he reeled in seven of nine targets for 53 yards and a touchdown.
He is a solid WR2 option this week with upside against a middle-of-the-road Houston defense that was just lit up by Zach Wilson and the New York Jets in Week 14.
Jerome Ford, RB, Browns (vs. CHI)
Jerome Ford was used heavily in the Cleveland Browns’ 31-27 win against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He rushed 12 times for 51 yards and caught five-of-six passes for 31 yards and out-snapped Kareem Hunt 43 to 28, though it was Hunt who found the end zone.
This timeshare makes Ford slightly less valuable than if he were the bell cow back, but he is the running back of the two to roster in light of volume and usage in the passing game. Hunt was only targeted once last week.
Ford has tallied double-digit fantasy points in all but one game since the Browns’ Week 5 bye and in 10 of 12 games since taking over after Nick Chubb went down. Ford's consistency keeps him solidly in the RB2 tier moving forward, including this week in a favorable matchup against the Chicago Bears, who rank 20th against fantasy running backs.
Isaiah Likely, TE, Ravens (at JAC)
Isaiah Likely shined in his second game in a row as the Baltimore Ravens’ TE1. He caught five-of-seven targets for 83 yards and his first touchdown of the season — good enough to finish as the TE4 in half-PPR.
Likely has another stellar opportunity to come in clutch for the fantasy managers lucky enough to nab him off the waiver wire. The Ravens take on the Jaguars, whose defense ranks bottom four against fantasy tight ends.
Last week, the unit was torched by David Njoku for 91 yards and two touchdowns. Likely should be a solid TE1 play for at least one more game until the Ravens face the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16.
Players We Hate This Week
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins (vs. NYJ)
Tua Tagovailoa struggled in a big way in the Dolphins’ upset Monday night loss to the Titans. He completed 23-of-33 attempts for 240 yards but scored no touchdowns in the effort — his first gooseegg of the year.
Tagovailoa has had his share of good fantasy performances sprinkled in with seven finishes at or above the top-12 mark. That means, unfortunately, he has finished below that mark in about half of his starts.
He is an unreliable play from here on out, with a brutal fantasy playoff schedule ahead. He gets the Jets, Dallas Cowboys and Ravens. The Jets are a top-three fantasy defense against quarterbacks and just shut down Texans signal-caller C.J. Stroud last week.
Tagovailoa is a fringe QB1 in this brutal Week 15 matchup and beyond.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Jaguars (vs. BAL)
Calvin Ridley disappointed — once again — in Week 14 against the Browns. He caught just four of his 13 targets for 53 yards and finished as the WR41 in half-PPR. That was his third game outside of the top 36 since the Jaguars’ Week 9 bye.
Ridley is a frustrating case for fantasy, flashing moments of the vintage Ridley. Unfortunately, he could be set up for another lukewarm performance with the Ravens' defense on deck.
Baltimore has allowed the fifth-fewest touchdowns and third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. The suboptimal matchup, combined with Ridley’s inconsistency, puts him outside the WR2 tier for Round 1 of the fantasy playoffs.
James Conner, RB, Cardinals (vs. SF)
The last time we saw James Conner, he absolutely exploded for a season-high 25 carries for 105 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a revenge matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who drafted him back in 2017. It was his best game of the season, and he finished as the RB5 in half-PPR – his second top-12 finish this season.
Conner and the Arizona Cardinals will have the benefit of their Week 14 bye heading, though it may not matter given their opponent. The 49ers are allowing an NFL-low 15.8 points per game and a league-low 78.3 rushing yards per game.
San Francisco is the No. 1 fantasy defense against running backs and has only allowed a double-digit fantasy game to an opposing running back three times this year. Conner struggled in these two teams’ first meeting back in Week 4 and tallied 56 scrimmage yards. The matchup alone downgrades Conner into the RB3 tier this week.
Pat Freiermuth (at IND)
Pat Freiermuth has become an unfortunate casualty of the Steelers’ offensive struggles. The team ranks bottom six in total points scored and bottom five in passing yards. Pittsburgh has not crested the 20-point mark in four consecutive games.
Even the firing of OC Matt Canada, which gave managers a brief glimmer of hope, is not enough to make Freiermuth a viable TE1 option week-to-week. He has finished as the TE23 in back-to-back weeks after his 120-yard performance in Week 12 and could be on track for another anemic performance in Week 15.
The Indianapolis Colts’ defense is middling overall but has been relatively tougher against tight ends, having only allowed two touchdowns to the position this year.
