Fantasy
12/21/23
7 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: Targets, Fades for NFL Week 16
Welcome to the fantasy football semifinals.
Whether you got here via a knockdown-dragout in the quarterfinals or a stress-free first-round bye, the slate (for most leagues) is wiped clean heading into Week 16.
Before the hustle and bustle of the holiday season, stay abreast of news, injuries, and last-minute inactives. Every lineup decision could be the difference between advancing to the finals for a chance at the championship or ending up in the consolation bracket.
Below, we will break down one player at each position to target (love) and one player at each position to avoid (hate) for your Week 16 fantasy football lineups based on matchups, injuries, strategies and more.
Players We Love This Week
Justin Fields, QB, Bears (vs. ARI)
Justin Fields struggled – as predicted – in the Chicago Bears’ 20-17 loss to the Cleveland Browns. He completed an unimpressive 19-of-40 attempts for 166 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions and rushed seven times for 30 yards.
He mustered just 12 fantasy points and finished as the QB26 for the week.
In fairness to Fields, who has been erratic for fantasy all year, an away matchup against a top-notch Cleveland defense is not exactly a recipe for success. Fortunately, the former Buckeye will have a prime opportunity to bounce back at home against the Arizona Cardinals this week.
The Cardinals rank 28th against fantasy quarterbacks and have been lit up for 31 or more QB fantasy points in two of the last three weeks. Fields finds himself in the mid-QB1 tier for Week 16.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs (vs. LV)
Isiah Pacheco has missed two crucial weeks but should be back for the fantasy semifinals. He was sidelined with a shoulder injury requiring surgery and should return this week against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Before the injury, Pacheco was spectacular and the RB3 in half-PPR since the Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 10 bye. One of those games was against the Raiders when he tallied 89 scrimmage yards on 20 touches for two touchdowns.
Assuming Pacheco is at full strength come Christmas Day, he should be well-positioned for another RB1 performance to help hoist fantasy teams into the finals.
Jayden Reed, WR, Packers (at CAR)
Jayden Reed is having quite the rookie season. Reed is the WR10 in half-PPR since the Green Bay Packers’ Week 6 bye and has tallied seven double-digit fantasy games in that span.
He excelled last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, reeling in six-of-eight targets for 52 yards and a touchdown, his fifth in six games.
Reed leads the Packers in catches and receiving yards and appears to have surpassed Romeo Doubs within this wide receiving corps. The matchup against the Carolina Panthers is far from stellar (a sentence that sounds odd even typing out), but the Panthers have allowed some solid fantasy games to wide receivers.
Reed is a high-risk, high-reward WR3 play in Week 16.
David Njoku, Te, Browns (at HOU)
David Njoku is on fire. The Browns’ tight end has 16 catches on 22 targets for 195 yards and three touchdowns in the last two games. He finished as the TE2 in half-PPR in both weeks, is the overall TE6 and appears to be as quarterback-proof as pass-catchers come.
With the Houston Texans on deck, Njoku’s hot streak could continue just in time for the fantasy semifinals. The Texans’ defense has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points and the third-most receiving yards to tight ends this year.
Njoku is a trustworthy starter given his recent success and in this plus Week 16 matchup.
Players We Hate This Week
Sam Howell, QB, Commanders (vs. NYJ)
Sam Howell disappointed in a big way to start the fantasy football playoffs. He completed just 11 of 26 attempts for 102 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and 22 rushing yards. His nine fantasy points could’ve sunk some teams’ playoff chances entirely.
For those Howell managers still in the mix, this isn’t the week to play him. He has an absolutely brutal schedule to close out the season, facing the New York Jets on the road, then the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys at home in Weeks 17 and 18.
The Jets have an elite pass defense. It has allowed the third-fewest quarterback fantasy points, the second-fewest passing yards and has not allowed more than 14 fantasy points to a signal-caller since Week 11.
Howell is an untrustworthy start coming off of a dud in the playoff opener and this brutal matchup.
Saquon Barkley, Rb, Giants (at PHI)
Saquon Barkley has been up and down all year. He has five top 12 weekly finishes and another four outside the top 30. Last week’s performance fell into the latter category. The New York Giants had no answers for the New Orleans Saints’ defense.
Barkley tallied just 14 rushing yards, 23 receiving yards and zero touchdowns, finishing as the RB46 in half-PPR.
The Penn State product faces another uphill battle this week on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles, whom the Giants face twice to finish the year. The Eagles are the No. 1 fantasy defense against running backs, which foils nicely against their awful pass defense.
Historically, Barkley has been mediocre against Philadelphia and downright bad in the last two seasons. In three games during that span, Barkley has zero touchdowns, 100 total rushing yards, and averages 2.7 yards per carry.
He is a risky RB2 option, who many fantasy managers will not have the luxury of sitting in their fantasy semifinals.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Cowboys (at MIA)
Brandin Cooks and the Dallas Cowboys’ offense fell apart in Sunday’s crushing blowout loss on the road to the Buffalo Bills. QB Dak Prescott had his worst game of the year and threw for a season-low 134 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception.
Cooks reeled in two of his six targets for 10 yards and was the WR88 in half-PPR, which simply won’t cut it in the fantasy playoffs.
Perhaps even more concerning is Cook’s low 12.7 percent target share as the team’s No.3 option, which makes him much more touchdown-dependent. He is a low-end, boom-or-bust WR3 this week against the Miami Dolphins, who are middle-of-the-road against fantasy wide receivers this year.
Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles (vs. NYG)
The Eagles’ offense was far from its best on Monday night against the Seattle Seahawks. QB Jalen Hurts tallied a season-low 143 yards and threw zero touchdowns for the second week in a row.
A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert all had disappointing games for fantasy. Goedert saw nine targets (second-most behind Brown) but reeled in just four for 30 yards and finished as the TE29 in half-PPR for the second week in a row since returning from injury.
It is possible Goedert has not been at full strength and could still return as a viable option. This week, however, should give managers pause amid his recent struggles. Also, the New York Giants’ defense ranks in the top nine against fantasy tight ends.
Goedert is a fringe-TE1 play based solely on the offenses’ pedigree.
