Analysis

10/18/23

8 min read

2023 Fantasy Football Week 7 Projections: Jalen Hurts Primed to Thrive

By Ben Wolbransky

Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles

Using machine learning, I’ve built a model that projects player usage and fantasy performance week to week. Below, you can find the model’s 2023 Week 7 projections. Each player is listed with relevant projected stats, as well as their projected points in half-PPR leagues and projected rank.

Write-ups for interesting and notable players will be found under each position.

Disclaimer: I wouldn’t recommend using these projections for the betting markets. The model regresses outlier predictions and performances back to an average. Though this model can aid in betting decision-making, it wasn’t modeled with that in mind.

Quarterbacks

Player Att Comp PsYds PsTD Rush RshYds RshTDs FFPTs Rank
Jalen Hurts 32 22 243 1.7 9 39 0.7 22.7 1
Josh Allen 37 26 278 2.2 4 24 0.4 22.7 2
Patrick Mahomes 39 26 306 2.4 3 17 0.1 22.4 3
Tua Tagovailoa 35 25 298 1.8 2 6 0.1 20.7 4
Lamar Jackson 28 20 191 1.2 9 45 0.6 18.8 5
Justin Herbert 40 27 273 2.0 3 12 0.1 18.4 6
Matthew Stafford 38 23 283 2.0 2 1 0.1 17.5 7
Geno Smith 32 22 246 1.8 2 12 0.2 17.4 8
Sam Howell 36 24 252 1.4 3 22 0.2 17.3 9
Jared Goff 36 25 257 1.7 2 6 0.1 17.1 10
Russell Wilson 30 20 214 1.7 4 23 0.2 17.0 11
Brock Purdy 30 21 252 1.9 2 3 0.1 17.0 12
Jordan Love 30 17 219 1.8 3 16 0.2 17.0 13
Deshaun Watson 34 21 226 1.5 3 16 0.2 16.1 14
Trevor Lawrence 37 24 225 1.2 5 25 0.3 15.7 15
Daniel Jones 34 22 221 1.3 5 24 0.2 15.6 16
Baker Mayfield 33 23 214 1.7 4 12 0.1 15.0 17
Joshua Dobbs 31 20 198 1.2 4 24 0.1 14.3 18
Kirk Cousins 37 25 219 1.6 2 5 0.1 14.2 19
Kenny Pickett 35 21 215 1.2 3 12 0.2 13.9 20
Mac Jones 37 23 224 1.4 3 7 0.1 13.9 21
Derek Carr 33 22 213 1.6 0 2 0.1 13.8 22
Desmond Ridder 31 20 203 1.1 3 11 0.2 13.0 23
Gardner Minshew 35 22 214 1.0 3 14 0.1 12.7 24
Aidan O'Connell 32 20 199 1.3 2 6 0.1 12.6 25
Tyson Bagent 31 21 169 0.1 2 10 0.7 10.6 26

Jalen Hurts (QB1), Philadelphia Eagles

Yet to be projected as the QB1, Jalen Hurts finds himself in a prime position to do so in a shootout with the Miami Dolphins. Hurts is fantasy’s QB3 in points per game through six weeks, so perhaps QB1 isn’t a bold take. Still, the Philadelphia Eagles have the second-highest implied team total in Week 7 (behind just the Kansas City Chiefs) against the Dolphins, who are allowing the sixth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The Eagles have had the second-most rushing plays per game fueled by Hurts’ 10.5 rushing attempts per game. Hurts ascends to overall QB1 territory this week given his efficiency through the air (7.2 YPA, 11th best), and his high probability to score a rushing touchdown (he’s averaging 0.8 TD per game).

Matthew Stafford (QB7), Detroit Lions

Last week, Matthew Stafford had an enticing matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. He only had 13.2 fantasy points (as the QB15), and the Los Angeles Rams found the end zone just once through the air. Now with Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers expected to be sidelined in Week 7, Stafford is projected to pass the ball a bit more (38 attempts, projected third most) and score two passing touchdowns (fourth most). Stafford is a priority streamer in Week 7.

Sam Howell (QB9), Washington Commanders

Sam Howell heard “priority streamer” and said, “What about me?” Howell is the per-game QB5 over his past three games. Week 7 presents an opportunity to continue that trend, facing the New York Giants’ defense. Debatably, Howell has exited streamer territory and can be trusted in one-quarterback leagues.

Gardner Minshew (QB24), Indianapolis Colts;  Aidan O’Connell (QB25), Las Vegas Raiders;  Tyson Bagent (QB26), Chicago Bears

With few plays to use as sample data and inconsistent performances all around, this trio of quarterbacks — Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Tyson Bagent — should only be added as bye-week fillers in two-quarterback leagues. 

Wide Receivers 

Name Targets Receptions RecYds RecTDs HPPR PPR Rank
Cooper Kupp 13 9 120 0.6 20.0 24.3 1
Tyreek Hill 11 8 116 0.6 19.2 23.0 2
Stefon Diggs 12 9 100 0.7 18.5 22.8 3
Keenan Allen 12 8 91 0.5 16.4 20.4 4
A.J. Brown 10 7 91 0.6 16.0 19.3 5
Amon-Ra St. Brown 9 7 73 0.5 14.4 17.6 6
Mike Evans 9 6 84 0.4 14.2 17.4 7
Brandon Aiyuk 7 5 72 0.6 13.6 16.0 8
Puka Nacua 11 7 76 0.3 13.0 16.3 9
DK Metcalf 7 5 70 0.6 12.7 15.1 10
Jaylen Waddle 8 5 73 0.4 12.7 15.3 11
Marquise Brown 9 6 60 0.6 12.5 15.3 12
Michael Pittman Jr. 10 7 73 0.3 12.4 15.8 13
Davante Adams 9 6 71 0.3 12.4 15.3 14
Chris Olave 9 6 71 0.4 12.3 15.1 15
Deebo Samuel 6 4 51 0.4 12.0 14.0 16
Chris Godwin 8 6 63 0.3 11.7 14.6 17
Amari Cooper 8 5 60 0.5 11.3 13.8 18
Tyler Lockett 8 5 54 0.5 11.0 13.7 19
Christian Kirk 8 6 60 0.3 11.0 13.8 20
DeVonta Smith 7 5 55 0.5 10.9 13.2 21
Jakobi Meyers 8 5 55 0.4 10.7 13.2 22
Jordan Addison 7 5 56 0.5 10.7 13.0 23
Terry McLaurin 8 5 63 0.3 10.6 13.3 24
Courtland Sutton 7 5 55 0.4 10.6 13.1 25
George Pickens 7 4 57 0.4 10.5 12.5 26
Christian Watson 6 4 51 0.4 10.3 12.2 27
Calvin Ridley 7 5 64 0.3 10.3 12.7 28
Josh Palmer 7 5 54 0.4 10.2 12.7 29
DJ Moore 9 6 69 0.0 10.1 13.0 30
Gabe Davis 6 4 58 0.4 10.0 12.0 31
Elijah Moore 8 4 53 0.3 9.6 11.9 32
Zay Flowers 7 5 53 0.3 9.4 11.9 33
K.J. Osborn 7 4 47 0.3 8.9 11.1 34
Kendrick Bourne 7 4 45 0.3 8.7 10.8 35
Jerry Jeudy 6 3 41 0.4 8.5 10.2 36
Romeo Doubs 7 4 43 0.4 8.4 10.3 37
Diontae Johnson 7 4 52 0.2 8.3 10.2 38
Josh Downs 8 5 46 0.2 8.2 10.7 39
Curtis Samuel 6 4 48 0.2 8.1 10.2 40
Drake London 6 4 45 0.3 8.0 10.0 41
Rashid Shaheed 4 3 40 0.3 7.7 9.0 42
Skyy Moore 4 3 36 0.3 7.5 8.8 43
Darius Slayton 5 3 43 0.3 7.5 9.1 44
Michael Thomas 5 3 36 0.3 7.2 8.9 45
Wan'Dale Robinson 6 4 36 0.2 7.1 9.1 46
Josh Reynolds 5 3 43 0.2 6.9 8.6 47
Jayden Reed 5 3 42 0.2 6.9 8.5 48
Jahan Dotson 6 3 36 0.3 6.8 8.6 49
Rondale Moore 5 3 25 0.2 6.8 8.5 50
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 5 4 34 0.3 6.7 8.4 51
Rashee Rice 5 3 35 0.2 6.3 7.7 52
Tutu Atwell 4 2 29 0.3 6.1 7.4 53
Parris Campbell 5 3 29 0.2 5.8 7.4 54
Trey Palmer 3 2 21 0.4 5.8 6.8 55
DeVante Parker 4 3 28 0.3 5.7 7.1 56
Michael Wilson 4 3 38 0.0 5.2 6.7 57
Darnell Mooney 5 3 34 0.0 5.2 6.9 58
Quentin Johnston 4 2 26 0.2 5.2 6.3 59

Cooper Kupp (WR1), Los Angeles Rams

Cooper Kupp takes the throne as WR1 once again. He looks like the same player he’s been the past two seasons and should be treated as such. Long live the king.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR8), Deebo Samuel (WR16), San Francisco 49ers

Over the past few weeks, there has been a clear emergence of Brandon Aiyuk as the WR1 in San Fransisco. Deebo Samuel averaged just fewer than four points per game in that time frame, while Aiyuk has averaged more than 11. The injury to RB Christian McCaffrey complicates things for the San Francisco 49ers this week. The team is projected three additional passing plays and three fewer rushing plays in McCaffrey’s absence. The good news for Samuel is he’s projected three fantasy points from rushing plays. I’d feel more confident rolling out Aiyuk, but both players are worth a start against a Minnesota Vikings defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Davante Adams (WR14), Jakobi Meyers (WR22), Las Vegas Raiders

The injury to QB Jimmy Garoppolo complicates the dynamic between this duo further. Last week, Garoppolo, QB Brian Hoyer and WR Jakobi Meyers had a revenge game against the New England Patriots. Perhaps that’s why Meyers saw a 22.6 percent target share to Davante Adams’ 16.1, but Meyers has also outscored Adams 35.9 to 21.9 fantasy points over the past three weeks. Given the choice between both, you’ve got to start your stud. Still, Meyers’ current value is undeniable. My model was not high on Adams in the preseason and given the uncertainty at the quarterback position this week, it’s only fair Adams is projected outside the top-12.

Running Backs

Name Rushes RushYards RushTDs Targets Receptions RecYds RecTDs HPPR PPR Rank
Bijan Robinson 14 65 0.5 5 3 25 0.3 15.1 16.8 2
Austin Ekeler 14 47 0.4 6 4 44 0.2 14.7 16.9 3
Kenneth Walker III 14 64 0.9 3 2 18 0.0 14.5 15.5 4
Josh Jacobs 14 55 0.7 4 3 24 0.2 14.2 15.9 1
Raheem Mostert 14 66 0.7 3 2 15 0.1 14.1 15.1 5
Travis Etienne 17 71 0.5 4 3 21 0.1 14.0 15.6 6
D'Andre Swift 14 67 0.4 4 3 20 0.2 13.9 15.5 7
Alvin Kamara 12 47 0.4 6 5 29 0.2 13.8 16.3 8
Saquon Barkley 16 70 0.4 4 3 20 0.1 13.8 15.2 9
Brian Robinson Jr. 14 59 0.6 3 2 17 0.1 13.1 14.1 10
Jordan Mason 13 54 0.5 4 3 21 0.2 13.1 14.5 11
James Cook 15 65 0.2 4 3 27 0.1 12.7 14.2 12
Rhamondre Stevenson 13 71 0.3 4 3 22 0.1 12.6 13.9 13
Rachaad White 15 53 0.5 4 3 16 0.1 12.0 13.4 14
Isiah Pacheco 13 61 0.4 3 2 15 0.2 12.0 12.9 15
Jonathan Taylor 16 62 0.5 2 1 12 0.1 11.8 12.5 16
Jahmyr Gibbs 13 49 0.2 5 4 24 0.2 11.7 13.5 17
Alexander Mattison 12 43 0.3 6 4 25 0.1 11.3 13.3 18
Najee Harris 12 49 0.6 3 2 14 0.1 11.2 12.2 19
Zach Evans 12 48 0.4 3 2 15 0.2 10.7 11.5 20
Aaron Jones 12 55 0.3 3 2 12 0.2 10.5 11.4 21
Jerome Ford 13 46 0.4 3 2 16 0.1 10.3 11.3 22
Roschon Johnson 12 58 0.5 2 1 7 0.0 10.1 10.7 23
Jaylen Warren 7 30 0.4 3 2 19 0.1 9.4 10.6 24
Tyler Allgeier 11 43 0.4 2 1 11 0.1 9.0 9.7 25
Jeff Wilson Jr. 9 33 0.4 2 2 13 0.1 8.5 9.3 26
Javonte Williams 7 27 0.3 3 2 15 0.2 8.1 9.1 27
Ezekiel Elliott 9 41 0.2 3 2 12 0.1 8.1 9.1 28
A.J. Dillon 9 36 0.4 2 1 8 0.1 8.1 8.6 29
Zack Moss 9 36 0.5 2 1 9 0.0 8.0 8.6 30
Keaontay Ingram 10 39 0.4 2 1 6 0.1 7.8 8.4 31
Cam Akers 8 29 0.2 5 3 17 0.1 7.7 9.3 32
Jaleel McLaughlin 7 31 0.3 2 1 12 0.1 7.4 8.1 33
Kenneth Gainwell 8 33 0.2 2 1 11 0.1 7.2 8.0 34
Antonio Gibson 4 15 0.2 3 2 22 0.2 7.2 8.4 35
Justice Hill 7 26 0.5 2 1 9 0.0 7.1 7.8 36
Gus Edwards 12 46 0.3 1 0 2 0.0 7.1 7.3 37
Craig Reynolds 10 39 0.3 1 1 5 0.0 7.0 7.3 38
Kareem Hunt 6 20 0.2 3 2 19 0.1 6.9 7.8 39
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 5 22 0.2 2 1 14 0.1 6.5 7.2 40
Zach Charbonnet 5 21 0.3 2 2 14 0.1 6.5 7.3 41
Elijah Mitchell 8 24 0.3 2 2 11 0.0 6.4 7.2 42
Jerick McKinnon 2 6 0.2 3 2 18 0.2 5.8 6.8 43
Samaje Perine 3 10 0.1 2 2 16 0.1 5.0 5.9 44

Kenneth Walker III (RB3), Seattle Seahawks

I noted on Twitter earlier this week that Kenneth Walker is going to be on a lot of fantasy football championship rosters. Walker was a fourth-round fantasy pick and is currently the RB7. He has scored a touchdown in four consecutive games (six total) and has a 69.2 percent rush share of the ninth-best rushing offense by success rate. 

Sure, Zach Charbonnet is in the picture for the Seattle Seahawks, but you’ve gotta imagine Walker’s performance is holding off the rookie. There are very few running backs I’d want for the remainder of the season more than Walker.

Jordan Mason (RB11), San Francisco 49ers

If Christian McCaffrey’s injury sidelines him for more than a few weeks, Jordan Mason could become a huge asset. The 49ers had a clear preference for Mason over Elijah Mitchell after McCaffrey went down with his oblique injury. Though my model projects both running backs near equal, Mason figures to be in line for more goal-line work. Given that McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in 15 consecutive games, I’m optimistic Mason has those opportunities as well. Mitchell figures to split work with Mason, which is why Mason isn’t projected among the top 10, but I’d fire him up with no hesitation.

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB17), Craig Reynolds (RB38), Detroit Lions

None of us want to hear it, but Jahmyr Gibbs just isn’t a safe RB1 — even in David Montgomery’s absence. Gibbs saw 17 carries for 80 yards in Week 3 for the Detroit Lions when Montgomery last missed time — but Gibbs saw little work at the goal line and nearly no receiving work for a total of 8.7 fantasy points. If Gibbs is used like Montgomery in his absence, Gibbs becomes an instant top-10 RB. Because we know how Lions OC Ben Johnson likes to run his offense, that’s just not likely. Craig Reynolds is projected for 11 total touches and as much goal-line work as Gibbs, making him a low-floor flex option.

Tight Ends

Name Targets Receptions RecYds RecTDs HPPR FPPR Rank
Travis Kelce 9 6 75 0.7 15.0 18.2 1
T.J. Hockenson 10 7 56 0.5 12.3 16.0 2
Mark Andrews 6 4 48 0.4 9.6 11.8 3
Sam LaPorta 7 5 51 0.3 9.6 12.1 4
George Kittle 5 4 42 0.5 8.9 10.8 5
Darren Waller 7 4 50 0.2 8.6 10.8 6
Evan Engram 7 5 43 0.1 7.5 9.9 7
Kyle Pitts 6 3 40 0.2 7.0 8.7 8
Gerald Everett 5 4 34 0.3 6.9 8.7 9
Logan Thomas 5 3 35 0.3 6.8 8.5 10
Luke Musgrave 5 3 33 0.3 6.7 8.2 11
Pat Freiermuth 5 3 38 0.2 6.6 8.2 12
Zach Ertz 7 4 30 0.2 6.6 8.8 13
Dallas Goedert 6 4 32 0.3 6.5 8.3 14
Hunter Henry 5 3 33 0.3 6.5 8.1 15
Dawson Knox 4 3 25 0.4 6.4 7.9 16
Durham Smythe 4 3 27 0.3 6.0 7.5 17
Dalton Kincaid 4 3 31 0.2 5.9 7.6 18
Jonnu Smith 4 3 32 0.2 5.5 6.9 19
Tyler Higbee 4 2 26 0.2 5.3 6.5 20
David Njoku 4 2 22 0.3 5.0 6.2 21
Cole Kmet 5 4 30 0.0 4.9 6.7 22
Juwan Johnson 4 2 20 0.2 4.7 5.9 23
Taysom Hill 2 1 7 0.1 4.7 5.3 24
Mike Gesicki 3 2 23 0.2 4.5 5.7 25
Noah Fant 3 2 21 0.2 4.5 5.4 26
Cade Otton 4 3 20 0.2 4.4 5.9

Darren Waller (TE6), New York Giants

The New York Giants have done a good job getting the ball to Darren Waller in recent weeks, but he’s not an exciting option in this offense. Though Waller is projected for the TE6, the limited touchdown upside that comes from this offense makes me think you’re better off with a high-risk, high-reward option. 

Pat Freiermuth (TE12), Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers offense hasn’t been great lately, but WR Diontae Johnson and TE Pat Freiermuth returning from IR might inspire some spark. Freirmuth was one of Kenny Pickett’s favorite targets last season, leading to Freirmuth being drafted as a top-six tight end. Much like the Giants, this offense leaves much to be desired, but Freiermuth proved he can be a top tight end even in a poor offense last season. Keep your eye on him if he’s on your waivers.

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Ben Wolbransky

Ben Wolbransky is a data scientist with a passion for sports analytics. Wolbransky is also a featured writer for BettingPros.

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