Analysis
10/10/23
8 min read
2023 NFL Awards Market Breakdown: Odds, Picks, Predictions for MVP, DPOY, More
Awards markets are starting to narrow five weeks into the season. We’re going to discuss the primary contenders in each race so that we can benchmark their odds and paths. We’ll repeat this process at the midseason point to see where each race stands.
Most Valuable Player Race
| Patrick Mahomes +450 | Tua Tagovailoa +475 | Josh Allen +700 |
| Jalen Hurts +700 | Brock Purdy +700 | Christian McCaffrey +1400 |
| Lamar Jackson +2000 | Trevor Lawrence +2200 | Justin Herbert +2500 |
MVP Analysis
Quarterbacks on elite teams consistently win the MVP award. Patrick Mahomes is a two-time winner who faces the Denver Broncos in two of the next three weeks. Tua Tagovailoa’s Miami Dolphins host the Carolina Panthers, while Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills face the New York Giants on Sunday night. All three quarterbacks are in potential smash spots in Week 6. And while the Philadelphia Eagles are 5-0, Jalen Hurts hasn’t been majorly productive during Philadelphia’s softest schedule stretch.
I gave out Brock Purdy as an MVP option last week at 22-1 odds. The San Francisco 49ers are the best team in football, while Purdy leads the league in passer rating and QBR. Last Sunday night, he threw for four touchdowns, the only significant area he was off the MVP pace with.
Christian McCaffrey is the rare running back with a genuine path in the MVP race. He’s been wildly productive and plays for the best team in the league.
Several other quarterbacks have a narrow path to MVP contention but are notably behind in this race. Along with the high-expectation stars Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert, players who started the year more under the radar, like Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford and Geno Smith, also warrant mention. Goff can win his division and contend for the No 1. Seed in the NFC, making him a long shot with an actual path. The dominance of the 49ers makes that a much taller task for Smith and Stafford.
Offensive Player of the Year Race
| Christian McCaffrey +175 | Tyreek Hill +250 | Ja'Marr Chase +1500 |
| Stefon Diggs +2000 | Jalen Hurts +2500 | Lamar Jackson +2500 |
| Josh Allen +3500 | Tua Tagovailoa +3500 | Keenan Allen +3500 |
OPOY Analysis
Offensive Player of the Year is the most unpredictable race, with the least defined patterns. Sometimes skill players win, sometimes the MVP double-dips and occasionally a second quarterback wins the OPOY.
McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill should be the favorites in this race through five games. Ja’Marr Chase inserted himself back into contention after a monster Week 5. Justin Jefferson will miss multiple games, which will eliminate him from contention. That helps the skill players at the top of this race. Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen have paths, but they may need injuries to both Hill and Chase to contend truly. For now, at least, we should avoid the quarterbacks for betting purposes.
Defensive Player of the Year Race
| Micah Parsons +220 | Myles Garrett +275 | T.J. Watt +300 |
| Aidan Hutchinson +1500 | Nick Bosa +2000 | Fred Warner +3000 |
DPOY Analysis
Micah Parsons continues to be the favorite, and he’ll get plenty of nationally televised games to make an impression. Team success is a potential concern for Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt. You could easily argue that Watt has been the most impactful defender this season.
I gave out Aidan Hutchinson at 30-1 odds in this market last week. He’s more aligned now with where I’d have set his odds in this race. Nick Bosa won the DPOY last year, but he’ll have to catch up production-wise to contend this year. His teammate — and our guy — Fred Warner is one of the centerpieces of the league’s best defense. However, off-ball linebackers don’t often win the DPOY these days.
Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (+3500) warrants mention, but he voluntarily missed the first game of the season. He’ll have to do spectacular things to win this race. Maxx Crosby (+3500) belongs in this conversation, but team success is a significant obstacle to his DPOY contention.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Race
| C.J. Stroud +130 | Bijan Robinson +350 | Puka Nacua +400 |
| Anthony Richardson +2000 | Zay Flowers +2200 | Jordan Addison +2500 |
OROY Analysis
This is a fantastic OROY race as C.J. Stroud, Bijan Robinson and Puka Nacua are genuine contenders who each play different positions. Stroud has been historically efficient through five games. He will be hard to beat if that phrase remains true through 17 games. Robinson entered the season as the favorite in this market. He may need Stroud to slip some, but Robinson has built a solid foundation to win this race. Nacua’s production was draw-dropping while injury sidelined Cooper Kupp. Now that Kupp is back, Nacua likely sees a long-term dip in volume. That said, Nacua had a strong enough start that he could still finish as a premium producer.
Anthony Richardson will miss multiple games, which nearly eliminates him from contention. The same goes for De'Von Achane, who was +600 before suffering a knee injury last week. Zay Flowers has been good, but it's hard to see him catching Nacua. With Jefferson out at least four games, Jordan Addison could make up ground quickly during the next month.
Defensive Rookie of the Year Race
| Jalen Carter -175 | Devon Witherspoon +300 | Will Anderson +1500 |
DROY Analysis
You can’t say that an awards race is over after five games, but Jalen Carter is the best defensive player in this class. He’s already a top-10, if not a top-five interior disruptor. Pass rushers tend to win this award, but Devon Witherspoon had a big-time night in front of a national audience in Week 4. Witherspoon’s Seattle Seahawks were on their bye last week, but he’s built a strong enough foundation to contend. Will Anderson is a difference-maker, but he’s starting to fall behind in this race.
Comeback Player of the Year Race
| Damar Hamlin -175 | Tua Tagovailoa +275 | Baker Mayfield +1500 |
| Matthew Stafford +1700 | Lamar Jackson +2000 | Cooper Kupp +2500 |
CPOY Analysis
This year’s CPOY race is unique because of what Damar Hamlin went through last season. The fact that he’s even stepping foot on an NFL field again is remarkable. That might be all it takes for awards voters to select Hamlin in this race.
Tagovailoa is among the MVP favorites for what could be a historically relevant Dolphins offense. As long as he stays healthy, it will be difficult for voters to pass on him. In a traditional race, Tagovailoa might be a minus odds favorite right now.
If Baker Mayfield’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers continue to win three out of every four games, he’ll be in the CPOY conversation long-term. Stafford has been phenomenal, but he’ll need Tagovailoa to take a step back in production. Even in that scenario, there is no guarantee the Rams will be a winning team by the season’s end. Team success plays some factor in this race. Jackson’s injury from last season falls in the gray area of what counts and what doesn’t for contention in this race. He should be the third favorite in this market if he’s eligible in awards voters’ eyes.
Kupp needs to surpass a lot of quarterbacks, not to mention Hamlin, in this race. A running back hasn’t won this race since Garrison Hearst did so in 2001.
Coach of the Year Race
| Dan Campbell +380 | Mike McDaniel +400 | Kyle Shanahan +650 |
| Shane Steichen +1000 | DeMeco Ryans +1600 | John Harbaugh +2000 |
| Todd Bowles +2000 | Arthur Smith +2500 | Sean McVay +2500 |
COY Analysis
This race is often decided late in the season, if not in the final week. Dan Campbell and Mike McDaniel had winning records last year, making them non-traditional favorites in this market. If Kyle Shanahan didn’t win COY last year, what would his 49ers need to accomplish this season? Shane Steichen and DeMeco Ryans are new head coaches who took over bottom-five teams. If either team finishes the season with a winning record, their coach fits the profile of a traditional COY winner. The same could be said of Todd Bowles and Arthur Smith, although their teams have a more straightforward path to winning their division. If the Los Angeles Rams make the playoffs, Sean McVay will also be right in the thick of this race.
John Harbaugh’s Baltimore Ravens made the playoffs last year, and they are 3-2 right now. He has no business being the sixth favorite in this race.
Ryan is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. Ryan has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
