Betting

6/19/23

5 min read

2023 NFL Betting: Analyzing Offensive Player of the Year Odds

By Daniel Racz

The Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) Award recently has been a "fantasy player of the Year award" among playoff teams. As such, non-mobile quarterbacks and players on losing teams are unlikely to win the award, even if they impact their respective teams more.

Players who offer one-dimensional production will rarely, if ever, win OPOY. Efficient average draft position (ADP) data, like the ADP at Underdog Fantasy, closely reflect a player's offensive impact and can be used to assess OPOY candidates.

Using ADP to Find OPOY Candidates

2022 Offensive Player of the Year: Justin Jefferson 

Last season, Justin Jefferson had an ADP of four. Yet, his odds to win the OPOY award lagged behind more than a dozen other position players. Jefferson was listed at +3000 when that market opened, leading yours truly and fellow The 33rd Team analyst Ryan Reynolds to place bets on him at +3000 last offseason. 

By the end of the NFL’s offseason, Jefferson’s price converged to an efficient +1000, nearing the top of the market. Jefferson’s early standing did not reflect his likely elite fantasy production or how Kevin O'Connell would improve the Minnesota Vikings' offense and playoff chances. In contrast, his Underdog ADP suggested a potential ceiling year.

Although Underdog ADP alone will not ensure finding the OPOY winner, it is a free piece of information bettors should incorporate.

2023 Offensive Player of the Year Market

While last year offered Jefferson at top-five ADP and +3000 in the OPOY market, there is no drastic value this year. However, among top players, Underdog ADP still can be used to identify the best value bets. Three players are value bets within the first round of Underdog’s ADP.

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase have the top two spots in Underdog ADP and are the favorites for the OPOY award. Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey have nearly identical ADPs (3.9 for Hill and 4.2 for McCaffrey), yet Hill has much better odds at +2000 while McCaffrey's is +1600. 

Hill presents a compelling upside case for OPOY. If Hill’s statistics with strictly Tua Tagovailoa starting were extrapolated to an entire season, he would have had 122 receptions, 1,841 yards and nine touchdowns. Since OPOY requires a ceiling outcome, Hill’s stats without competent quarterback play matter minimally.

With a healthy Tagovailoa, or even newly acquired backup Mike White, Hill should remain a leader in the OPOY market, as he did last season until Tagovailoa missed time because of injuries. If the Miami Dolphins make the playoffs, an outcome with 50 percent implied probability based on sportsbook odds, a healthy Hill could lead the league in receiving yards. Hill’s efficient price is roughly +1500, so +2000 is a worthwhile ticket to hold. 

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams 

After winning OPOY and many fantasy football leagues in 2021, Cooper Kupp entered 2022 with monstrous expectations. Before injuries derailed his and the Los Angeles Rams’ season, Kupp averaged 90.2 yards and 8.3 receptions per game.

On Underdog, Kupp has an ADP of 4.6, suggesting confidence he can repeat his success if the Rams stay competitive. Kupp lacks target competition, so he can reasonably project for at least a 30 percent target share if healthy. Yet, his OPOY price of +2200 on DraftKings does not fully capture his potential. 

There are two risk factors that explain his price. Since Kupp won the award in 2021, voter fatigue could make it more challenging to gain traction. Though there is a small sample. Only one player can win the award each year, making repeat winners in a three-year window are rare.

Additionally, the Rams have severe downside risk if the team does not contend for the playoffs. In the current OPOY landscape, making the playoffs is critical. Kupp’s +2200 price is still valuable, as an efficient market should have him at around +1900, but it may be prudent to bet Kupp at +1200 to lead the league in receiving yards. That bet would eliminate team success and voter fatigue. 

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

Bijan Robinson’s Underdog ADP of 9.6 suggests high expectations for the 2023 draft’s eighth pick. Though rookies rarely contend for the award, fellow top-10 pick Saquon Barkley’s campaign would have gained more traction had it not been for Patrick Mahomes’ miraculous 2018 season.

Quarterbacks need legendary passing seasons to enter the OPOY conversation. They have grown less likely to win the award in the past five years as the market has shifted toward position players. Robinson enters the fray as a capable candidate. The Atlanta Falcons should contend for the playoffs in a weak conference, and their hyper-efficient running game should guarantee rushing production for Robinson.

If coach Arthur Smith elects to use Robinson as a receiver, he can push for at least 2,000 yards from scrimmage. FanDuel has Robinson priced at +4500 to win the award, which holds some value for those who believe Robinson has a path to meaningful pass-game usage. An efficient market should price Robinson at roughly +4000, so his price holds value.

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Tags: Atlanta Falcons, Bijan Robinson, Cooper Kupp See More

Daniel Racz

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