Analysis
4/29/23
6 min read
2023 NFL Betting: Analyzing Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
With the first two days of the 2023 NFL Draft now in the books, it’s time to take a look at the Offensive Rookie of the Year market. Let’s dive right in.
>> READ: Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
Offensive Rookie of Year Bets
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Bijan Robinson +300
Bijan Robinson +300Bijan Robinson opened as high as +500 days before the draft began, which is when we bet on Robinson in this market. He is now the standalone favorite at +300 just a day after the Atlanta Falcons selected him with the eighth overall pick.
You don’t take a running back with the eighth overall pick to plug them into a 50/50 timeshare, so we can reasonably expect Robinson to have a significant workload in his rookie season. There is little value in his current odds, but Robinson is the favorite in this market for a reason.
Bryce Young +475
Bryce Young +475Bryce Young opened between +450 and +500 in the days before the draft started. His odds haven’t fluctuated much post-draft because he was already expected to be the first overall pick. Young has a pretty clear path to early playing time with the Carolina Panthers, but his supporting cast on offense is very mediocre.
Young will either need to do a lot on his own to be productive enough to win this race, or the Panthers will have to contend in the NFC South. If you’re betting on Young at +475, you should build that bet around the Panthers winning the NFC South.
C.J. Stroud +700
C.J. Stroud +700The Houston Texans' offensive line has enough talent to be a top-10 group in a best-case scenario, which is a major positive for a pocket passer like C.J. Stroud. On the downside, Houston may have the league’s thinnest wide receiver room. It’s hard to envision Stroud having an exceptional season given his supporting cast.
Stroud will either have to elevate one of the worst offenses in the league, or he will need his primary competitors to underwhelm to contend in this race.
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba +700
Jaxon Smith-Njigba +700If Jaxon Smith-Njigba landed in Houston with Stroud, where he’d begin his career as the primary pass catcher with his college teammate as his quarterback, he’d be in good shape in the OROY race. The Seattle Seahawks are a strong long-term landing spot for Smith-Njigba, but he’ll have significant target competition in his rookie season.
If Smith-Njigba gets off to a slow start while seeing significant playing time, he could become an interesting OROY if his odds dip.
Anthony Richardson +900
Anthony Richardson +900If Anthony Richardson starts on opening day, he likely becomes the co-favorite in this race, alongside Robinson. Richardson has a concerning floor due to his lack of experience, but he’s a dynamic athlete with an enormous ceiling. He’ll also begin his career with a better-supporting cast than Young or Stroud. If Richardson doesn’t start on opening day, he’ll have to take over within the first month of the season to be a factor in this race.
FanDuel has Richardson at +700 in this market. If I were setting these lines, he’d be closer to FanDuel’s +700 mark than DraftKings' +900 option.
Jahmyr Gibbs +900
Jahmyr Gibbs +900Jahmyr Gibbs is an electric player that could be an immediate factor for the Detroit Lions. The question is will he see enough volume to outproduce Robinson? We have our doubts there. Gibbs is available at +1600 on FanDuel, which is the first major odds disparity between books in this market. The Lions did trade D'Andre Swift to the Philadelphia Eagles on Saturday, opening up the running back room a bit.
Jordan Addison +1700
Jordan Addison +1700Jordan Addison is a sneaky mid-range longshot as he will rarely, if ever see extra attention from defenses because he plays on the same team as Justin Jefferson. Addison is worth monitoring in the OROY race.
Zay Flowers +1800
Zay Flowers +1800Lamar Jackson has never had a voluminous season as a passer, topping out at 3,127 yards passing during his MVP season in 2019. Todd Monken’s new offense will put Jackson in a position to blow that meager figure out of the water this season.
Still, even if Jackson breaches 4,000 yards passing, Zay Flowers has to compete for targets with Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr. Flowers has to jump a lot of premium prospects to contend in this race, and there is suddenly a lot of target competition in Baltimore.
Quentin Johnston +2000
Quentin Johnston +2000Quentin Johnston is in an interesting position with the Los Angeles Chargers. If Keenan Allen and especially Mike Williams were to miss time, Johnston could be thrust into a significant role with one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Justin Herbert. That’s not a reason to bet on Johnston to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year in May, but it makes him someone to monitor as we inch closer to opening day.
Zach Charbonnet +2000
You can get Zach Charbonnet at +2800 on FanDuel, but that still isn’t enough to make a bet since he’ll compete for touches with Kenneth Walker. For Charbonnet to contend in this race, he’ll need Walker to miss significant time.
Will Levis +2500
Will Levis +2500As long as Ryan Tannehill remains with the Tennessee Titans, you shouldn’t bet on Will Levis in this race, especially not at these odds. If Tannehill gets traded before the start of the season, that becomes a different decision.
Dalton Kincaid +3500
Dalton Kincaid +3500You can actually get Dalton Kincaid on FanDuel at +5000. The downside there is a tight end has never won the Offensive Rookie of the Year. We’d suggest staying away from this one, even with the expectation Kincaid could see notable work in the slot in Josh Allen’s high-powered offense.
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