Expert Analysis

4/6/23

15 min read

2023 NFL Draft: The Perfect Fantasy Football Mock Draft

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fantasy football mock draft

We know you've been waiting for the perfect fantasy football mock draft. This is a mock where realistic landing spots and team fits were taken into account. We made sure all picks and landing spots were feasible, and while it would be fun to assign Bijan Robinson (scouting report) to six or seven different teams, he can only get picked once in real life — so we did the same.

Note: If a pick isn't listed, the team did not select a fantasy-relevant player. 

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>> READ: NFL Mock Draft 4.3 

Perfect Fantasy Mock Draft

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1. Carolina Panthers: QB Bryce Young, Alabama

  • The Carolina Panthers have a solid offensive line but are lacking skill-position talent.
  • Think of the Panthers' talent surrounding Bryce Young (scouting report) as the lite version of the 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars skill players, where there are no stars, but there are complementary — and competent — pieces.
  • Young is a moderate-ceiling, high-floor quarterback prospect. Mac Jones’ rookie season is a reasonable expectation in Year 1.
    • Jones had 3,801 passing yards and 22 TD passes in 2021.

2. Houston Texans: QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State

  • The Houston Texans have one of the league’s thinnest groups of pass catchers, but the addition of guard Shaq Mason significantly improves an offensive line that already had three former first-round picks.
  • That’s important for C.J. Stroud (scouting report), who is more of a traditional pocket passer and requires stable pass protection.
  • Expect an early career Dak Prescott-type season as a passer, in the range of 3,500 yards passing with 20 TDs.

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3. Atlanta Falcons*: QB Anthony Richardson

*PROJECTED TRADE WITH CARDINALS

>> Atlanta Receives: 1-3

>> Arizona Receives: 1-8, 2024 first-round pick

  • Anthony Richardson (scouting report) will have two blue-chip pass catchers on their rookie deals in tight end Kyle Pitts and wide receiver Drake London.
  • The Atlanta Falcons' solid offensive line makes the team a quarterback away from being a dangerous offense.
  • The Falcons' run-centric approach would help Richardson early in his career.
  • Falcons QB Marcus Mariota had five or more rushing attempts in 11 of his 13 appearances last season.

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7. Las Vegas Raiders: QB Will Levis, Kentucky

  • Will Levis (scouting report) brings rushing upside to the table, making him a significantly different player than current starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. 
  • Few first-round picks get to play with a top-shelf wide receiver like Davante Adams.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders are a sneaky shootout team in a difficult division.
  • It’s hard to envision Garoppolo holding off a top-10 draft pick for long in an environment where he has to go punch for punch with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert four times a year.

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8. Arizona Cardinals: OT Broderick Jones, Georgia

  • Broderick Jones (scouting report) is the highest-graded prospect on The 33rd Team's big board. 
  • QB Kyler Murray will miss at least part of the 2023 season, making it a bit of a lost year for the Arizona Cardinals.
  • Adding a premium offensive tackle prospect would give the Cardinals the foundational-type piece their mediocre offensive line needs.
  • This selection may not pay dividends early in the season with Colt McCoy under center, but it could give the offense more stability long-term.

 

9. Chicago Bears: OL Peter Skoronski, Northwestern

  • Everyone loves it when a local kid like Peter Skoronski (scouting report) gets his shot with the hometown team.
  • The Chicago Bears suddenly have a talented, well-rounded wide receiver room. The next step in supporting QB Justin Fields is upgrading the offensive line. 
  • Chicago’s offensive line is already solid in the run game, but the addition of Skoronski could help the line take a big step forward in pass protection.
  • If the Bears drafted Skoronski, it would likely be to play offensive tackle, but he could move inside to guard if he struggles on the outside.

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10. Philadelphia Eagles: RB Bijan Robinson, Texas

  • The Philadelphia Eagles most likely take a player at a high-impact position with the 10th overall pick, but this would be a fascinating landing spot for Robinson.
  • The Eagles have an elite offense with a premium offensive line.
  • QB Jalen Hurts' rushing ability likely would hurt Robinson's passing-game volume, and it has the potential to negatively impact his goal-line opportunities.
  • His absolute floor is the Miles Sanders role (1,269 yards rushing and 11 TDs) from last season, with more pass-game usage. Though, it’s tough to envision more than 350 yards through the air for Robinson in this system.
  • Robinson could lead the league in rushing yards and rushing TDs, even if Hurts vultures a few at the goal line.
    • The Eagles averaged more than 28 points and 389 yards of total offense per game last season.

11. Tennessee Titans: OT Paris Johnson, Ohio State

  • During the past two seasons, offensive line play has gone from a strength to a weakness for the Tennessee Titans.
  • The addition of Paris Johnson (scouting report) would be a major step in re-solidifying that group.
  • Tennessee is signaling that it might be entering a rebuild. Selecting a player like Johnson would be a smart first step in that direction.
  • In the short term, Derrick Henry has shown he’s more immune to uneven offensive line play than most running backs. That said, he’d still benefit from the addition of a difference-making offensive tackle like Johnson.

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12. Houston Texans: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State

  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (scouting report) amassed 1,606 receiving yards during his sophomore season with Stroud at Ohio State, and now the two are reunited on a Texans team without any additional premium offensive talent.
  • Expect 75-90 receptions and 800-1,100 yards as a rookie if he's paired with Stroud in Houston.
  • Nico Collins remains on the outside, but this move would signal the end of 31-year-old Robert Woods as an every-down player.

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13. New York Jets: WR Jordan Addison, USC

  • The Green Bay Packers inexplicably never supplied Aaron Rodgers with a first-round wide receiver. The New York Jets waste no time in righting that wrong.
  • Jordan Addison (scouting report) pairs nicely with Garrett Wilson and gives the Jets a duo of high-end route runners few defenses could cover.
  • This move cements Allen Lazard as the WR3 — his most natural fit, and Mecole Hardman as a gadget player, similar to his role with the Kansas City Chiefs.
  • Addison is most likely the first rookie wide receiver off the board in a re-draft should he land here.
  • Christian Watson had a 22 percent target share and was on a 1,050-yard pace (over 16 games) once he became a starter in Week 10. Addison should have a much faster adjustment period to the NFL.
    • Watson played inferior competition at North Dakota State and underwent knee surgery in June prior to the season.

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15. Green Bay Packers: TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame

  • Michael Mayer (scouting report) put up more than 800 receiving yards as a sophomore and junior and immediately slots in as the No. 2 receiving option behind Watson for the Packers.
  • While Watson stretches the field on the outside, Mayer can work underneath, acting as a security blanket for QB Jordan Love.
  • While there isn’t much TD upside for Mayer in this offense, he has the potential for 100 targets, 65 catches and 850 receiving yards, which would be useful in PPR leagues.
  • He likely gets selected around Dalton Schultz and Pat Freiermuth in re-draft leagues as a fringe top-12 option.

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16. Washington Commanders: QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee

  • Hendon Hooker (scouting report) landing in Washington would signal the end of the Sam Howell experiment.
  • Jacoby Brissett was a less prolific runner in college than Hooker, but he would be a good Year 1 mentor.
  • We’d expect Brissett to start for roughly half the season before the Washington Commanders give the keys to Hooker.
  • While the offensive line leaves much to be desired, for a rookie quarterback, this roster is loaded with receiving weapons.

 

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Darnell Wright, Tennessee

  • The Pittsburgh Steelers' once reliable offensive line has eroded into one of the most inconsistent groups in the league.
  • The addition of a new offensive tackle in Darnell Wright (scouting report), paired with the signing of former Eagles guard Isaac Seumalo, could push this group closer to the middle of the pack.
  • RB Najee Harris would benefit immensely from an improved offensive line.
  • So would QB Kenny Pickett, whose uneven rookie year was highlighted by strong play late in close games.

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21. Los Angeles Chargers: WR Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee

  • Jalin Hyatt (scouting report) to the Los Angeles Chargers is what fantasy football dreams are made of.
  • Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have a case for being the NFL's slowest wide receiver duo.
  • Undrafted receiver Jalen Guyton put up more than 500 yards in 2020, so the floor for Hyatt is incredibly high for a field-stretcher profile if he lands in Los Angeles.
  • The Year 1 ceiling would be Henry Ruggs’ abbreviated 2021 season when he was on a 1,072-yard pace for 16 games.
  • Justin Herbert is a strong-armed, elite quarterback who would mesh well with Hyatt.

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22. Miami Dolphins*: TE Darnell Washington, Georgia

*PROJECTED TRADE WITH RAVENS

>> Miami Receives: 1-22

>> Baltimore Receives: 2-51, 2024 first-round pick

  • Darnell Washington's (scouting report) rare combination of size and speed cha should allow him to challenge for early playing time in the Dolphins’ thin tight end room.
  • Washington saw limited passing game volume at Georgia (9 percent target share last season).
  • That said, the Dolphins don’t need major-passing-game volume out of the tight end position, as wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle account for the majority of the targets.
  • Coach Mike McDaniel could script plays for a unique athlete like Washington.
  • Think of Washington as an additional offensive tackle anytime he stays in to block. Any anxiety surrounding Tua Tagovailoa's injury woes is dampened with the 6-foot-7, 264-pound Washington on this roster.

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23. Minnesota Vikings: WR Quentin Johnston, TCU

  • Quentin Johnston (scouting report) is a raw, high-ceiling prospect who would greatly benefit from playing alongside Justin Jefferson.
  • Adam Thielen averaged 9.8 TDs per game from 2018-2021, and Johnston could flirt with 8-10 TDs as a rookie.
  • The Minnesota Vikings have a top-5 passing offense if Johnston adjusts quickly. Kirk Cousins would be throwing to Jefferson, Johnston, K.J. Osborn and last year’s breakout tight end, T.J. Hockenson.
  • Johnston is a threat to lead all rookie wide receivers in receiving yards and TDs with this landing spot. He should go no later than Round 7 in redraft leagues.

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25. New York Giants: WR Zay Flowers, Boston College

  • Zay Flowers (scouting report) played 51 percent of his college career out of the slot, showcasing his versatility.
  • Wan’Dale Robinson put up 11 or more PPR fantasy points in three of his final five games before tearing his ACL, and Flowers is better than Robinson in nearly every facet.
  • The speedy product out of Boston College is a nightmare in space, and the New York Giants roster is sorely missing a versatile speedster who can move across the formation.
  • Darius Slayton, Parris Campbell, Darren Waller, Saquon Barkley and Flowers would be the fastest collection of skill players when the Giants are in 11 personnel (one tight end, one running back).

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26. Dallas Cowboys: TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah

  • Schultz averaged 42 yards per game and 5.7 TDs per 16 games during the past three seasons in Dallas. This is probably a reasonable expectation for Dalton Kincaid (scouting report), who is an athletic, pro-ready pass-catcher.
    • For context, Dallas Goedert averaged 50 yards per game in his past four seasons as a starter.
  • Kincaid likely leapfrogs fellow rookie Mayer in re-draft ADP should he land here. Kincaid's general upside is 65 receptions, 800 yards and 6-8 TDs for 2023.
  • Kincaid would begin the season as a fantasy bench stash, with the upside to be a mid-range TE1 like Schultz as he becomes more integrated into this high-powered offense.
  • Because of the importance of TDs at the tight end position, Kincaid likely gets drafted in a similar range to Dawson Knox in re-draft.

27. Buffalo Bills: WR Josh Downs, North Carolina

  • Outside of Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen has an average supporting cast on the Buffalo Bills' offense.
  • Josh Downs (scouting report) is a slot-heavy player with difference-making speed and surprising contested-catch ability.
  • There is an opening for a slot-heavy role in Buffalo.
  • Cole Beasley saw significant volume in that role, getting at least 106 targets and 67 receptions in three straight seasons from 2019-2021.

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28. Cincinnati Bengals: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama

  • Joe Mixon is already on thin ice with the Cincinnati Bengals, making it unlikely he sticks around if the team takes a running back in Round 1.
  • Joe Burrow is a pocket passer — behind an improving offensive line — who runs an efficient, high-scoring offense.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (scouting report) has 10-touchdown upside here, even if he’s not the primary goal-line back.
  • The Bengals' strength at wide receiver could limit Gibbs’ target upside. He’d be behind Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and possibly Tyler Boyd.
  • Boyd’s role has the potential to be severely reduced in this scenario.

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31. Kansas City Chiefs: WR Rashee Rice, SMU

  • Rashee Rice (scouting report) has started creeping into the last first round in many mock drafts. The SMU receiver caught 96 passes for 1,355 yards as a senior in 2022. No other SMU player caught more than 37 passes.
  • Rice has adequate size, above-average athleticism and will immediately push Marquez Valdes-Scantling for the team’s WR2 role behind Kadarius Toney — when he’s healthy.
  • This is quietly a weak wide receiver depth chart, with an opportunity to play alongside Patrick Mahomes.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster had middling efficiency last season and still finished with 78 receptions for 933 yards, demonstrating what playing in the Chiefs' offense can do for a player’s production.
  • We'd expect around 700 yards in Year 1. Though, there’s a real chance he cracks 900 yards if anything happens to Travis Kelce, Toney and/or Valdes-Scantling.

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Tags: 2023 Fantasy Football, Mock Draft, Rookie Analysis

Josh Larky

Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

Ryan Reynolds

Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

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