Analysis
11/2/23
5 min read
2023 NFL Midseason Super Bowl Odds, Predictions
With only 10 weeks left in the regular season, the Super Bowl picture has started to take shape. More than half of the teams in the league have a near-zero percent chance to win, with arguably only 11 teams having a realistic path to contention.
The table below lists the odds for the contending Super Bowl teams.
Super Bowl Odds for relevant teams (from DraftKings Sportsbook):
| Bills | Dolphins | Bengals | Ravens | Jaguars | Chiefs | Eagles | Cowboys | Lions | 49ers | Seahawks |
| +1600 | +850 | +1400 | +1500 | +1600 | +500 | +600 | +850 | +1100 | +600 | +3500 |
While all 11 teams can win the Super Bowl more than two percent of the time, this futures market’s pricing is nearly efficient, and only one team has enough value to justify a wager.
Super Bowl Betting Market
Bet Worth Placing
Kansas City Chiefs to Win the Super Bowl +500 (implied odds 16.7 percent)
The Kansas City Chiefs entered the season with a price of +600 (implied odds 14.3 percent) to win the Super Bowl, but the moderate price increase should not prohibit bettors.
In the Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs have 11 wins in 14 playoff games. It is rare to see a team capable of such domination against the league’s best. The Chiefs have made the AFC Championship the past five years and advanced to the Super Bowl three times. Albeit in a small 14-game sample, the advantages Mahomes provides his team appear heightened in must-win games.
As it stands, the Chiefs are the favorite to have a bye in the playoffs. A win against the Miami Dolphins this week would effectively limit their competition to the Baltimore Ravens and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Chiefs have already defeated the Jaguars this season and do not play the Ravens.
Much has been made of the Chiefs’ wide receiver room. Specifically, many have highlighted an absence of talent, claiming it’s the team’s Achilles heel. However, just last year, an equally poor pass-catching unit did not limit the team's offense en route to a dominant regular season, culminating in the Super Bowl.
If Rashee Rice develops into an every-down pass-catcher, fears of Chiefs lacking receiving talent will dissipate, and their odds will increase. Even if Rice does not grow into a more impactful role than a rotational player this season, the Chiefs’ wide receivers will not prevent Mahomes’ brilliance from shining through.
On defense, the Chiefs have their best unit in years, ranking fifth in estimated points added (EPA) per play. Fundamentally, the 2023 Chiefs are not a discernibly different quality team than any previous iteration since Mahomes took over.
As long as Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones are healthy and the Chiefs have a shot at the AFC’s top seed, their price should be in the range of +400 (implied odds 20.0 percent) to +350 (implied odds 22.2 percent).
Situations Worth Monitoring
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas CowboysOdds: +850 (Implied Odds 10.5%)
While the Dallas Cowboys’ standing behind the Philadelphia Eagles justifies their relatively lower price, two remaining games between the NFC East foes create room for change.
If the Cowboys defeat the Eagles in both matchups, their odds would surge. If a bettor believes the Cowboys are likely to beat the Eagles once or twice in their future matchups, placing a wager on the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl now is an avenue to capture value. This speculative logic in isolation should not push bettors onto Dallas at current prices.
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore RavensOdds: +1500 (Implied Odds 6.25%)
The Ravens’ dominant Week 7 performance against the Detroit Lions was encouraging, but more is needed to buy into the Ravens as a team ready to contend with the Chiefs.
However, the market price of +1500 indicates heavy skepticism, too. The Ravens’ profile as a top-three defense and top-10 offense by EPA/play. Additionally, they are the most likely team to earn the No. 1 seed if the Chiefs fall off.
Lamar Jackson is one of the league’s few quarterbacks dynamic enough to play high-impact football for multiple consecutive games, and the Ravens’ surrounding roster has sufficient talent. Their price is more likely than not to close in the +1200 (implied odds 7.75 percent) range rather than the +1900 (implied odds 5.0 percent) range.
Still, betting on an AFC team (besides the Chiefs) to win the Super Bowl requires three or four wins, including defeating this generation's most prolific playoff performer. While +1500 is an attractive price relative to other comparable teams (like the Cincinnati Bengals and Jaguars), betting on teams to defeat Mahomes in the playoffs is usually futile.
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle SeahawksOdds: +3500 (Implied Odds 2.77%)
The weaker NFC conference presents an opportunity to hold a ticket on an intriguing long-shot committed to winning this year. The Seattle Seahawks’ deadline acquisition of pass-rusher Leonard Williams for future draft capital signals an intention to compete for the Super Bowl in 2023. The Seahawks rank eighth in offensive EPA/play and 10th in EPA/play on defense.
While the Seahawks do not belong in conversations with the NFC’s top three teams, their price is too far apart from the Lions. The Lions have a near-guaranteed divisional win, whereas the Seahawks still have an uphill battle to dethrone the San Francisco 49ers. For Seattle, missing out on a wild-card berth seems like an incredibly low-probability outcome.
If the Seahawks enter the playoffs as the fifth seed and face the winner of the NFC South, they would likely be favorites. From there, it would still take three upsets to win the Super Bowl, but it is within the realm of possibility.
In the unlikely scenario where the Seahawks win the NFC West, their path becomes more accessible, as they will host at least one playoff game. Seattle’s price should probably sit at +3000 (implied odds 3.22 percent), but this incremental difference does not justify a bet at +3500.
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