Analysis
12/14/22
11 min read
2023 NFL Mock Draft 1.0: Bryce Young Leads Quarterback Revival
>> UPDATED: Mock Draft 1.1 (Dec. 27, 2022)
The NFL is entering the final four weeks of the season and three teams are already on the clock (Houston, Chicago, Denver), with several others who could be eliminated from postseason play this week.
And that means teams out of contention are starting to turn their attention to the 2023 NFL Draft. Led by T.J. McCreight, The 33rd Team Scouting Department has been hard at work evaluating the top prospects in this class. A former player personnel executive for the Philadelphia Eagles and former director of college scouting for the Indianapolis Colts, McCreight has nearly 25 years of NFL scouting experience.
He is joined in the department by three scouts:
- Kevin Cohn, a former scouting assistant for the Jacksonville Jaguars and assistant director of player personnel for the University of Connecticut.
- Justin Casey, who worked for the Arizona Cardinals in football administration and then as the senior player personnel executive for the Montreal Alouettes.
- Evan Pritt, a former scouting assistant for the Philadelphia Eagles and former player personnel assistant for the University of Maryland.
Unlike last year where only one quarterback was drafted in the first round — and no quarterbacks in Round 2 — this year should see an influx of talent at the quarterback position. Here is our scouting department's first crack at a 2023 mock draft:
Notes:
- The draft order was determined by current standings and using the league's strength-of-schedule tiebreaker.
- Asterisk denotes underclassmen who have yet to declare their intentions to enter the draft early.
- This year's first round only has 31 picks because the Miami Dolphins forfeited their selection for tampering with Tom Brady.
2023 Mock Draft 1.0
1. Houston Texans: Bryce Young*, QB, Alabama
We have varying opinions on Young, but he will likely be drafted near the top of this year's class. His build is a major concern, but he has rare vision, instincts and anticipation. His arm strength is sufficient, but he might not be suited to play in a cold-weather climate. Playing in NRG Stadium in Houston should be a good fit for his play style.
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2. Seattle Seahawks (From Denver): Jalen Carter*, DT, Georgia
When Seattle made the Russell Wilson trade with Denver, they probably weren't expecting a top-5 pick in return. Perhaps they were anticipating a decline in Wilson's performance given their daily exposure to him, but landing the No. 2 pick has to be a great surprise. Seattle's defense has been inconsistent this year, and they need help up front. Carter is a rare interior defender who can be an impact player against both the run and the pass.
3. Chicago Bears: Paris Johnson*, OT, Ohio State
The Bears have multiple holes, and one could argue they could look to add an edge rusher or receiver, but they need to protect Justin Fields. This is a deep receiver class, but there are only a couple of tackles that we have given first-round grades this year. With his length and athleticism, Johnson should step in on Day 1 at left tackle for the Bears.
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4. Detroit Lions (From L.A. Rams): Will Anderson*, EDGE, Alabama
The opportunity to pair Anderson with Aidan Hutchinson is too good to pass up. The Lions need help in the secondary, but there isn't a corner or safety who merits a pick this high. This is truly a best-available-player pick.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (From New Orleans): Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
The Eagles continue loading up on the defensive side of the ball and take a versatile pass rusher who can play outside and bump inside as well. Philosophically, they like to have guys who they can rotate in upfront. With potential losses in free agency, they reload by getting younger.
6. Arizona Cardinals: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
The Cardinals are desperately in need of an edge rusher and are not going to find one as talented as Murphy later in this draft. Murphy is twitchy and disruptive off the edge, using a blend of strength and speed to win.
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7. Indianapolis Colts: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The Colts have struggled to find their franchise quarterback since Andrew Luck retired. They need to put an end to the revolving door of stop-gaps, and Levis fits the bill. Levis checks a lot of the boxes with size, arm strength and athleticism. He is no stranger to adversity and could be a great fit for a Colts team who needs to rebuild its offense.
8. Las Vegas Raiders: Peter Skoronski*, OT, Northwestern
The Raiders need help on the offensive line, and Skoronski gives them position flexibility. He is smart, tough and versatile, which is everything we expect the Raiders will love.
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9. Carolina Panthers: C.J. Stroud*, QB, Ohio State
It is unclear who will be calling plays or making the decisions for Carolina next year. However, they need a quarterback and Stroud can fill that void.
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10. Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson*, RB, Texas
Cordarrelle Patterson turns 32 in March, and while Tyler Allgeier has provided some production, he's not a reason to pass on Robinson. Arthur Smith comes from Tennessee and has relied heavily on the run game in Atlanta. Robinson is a difference-maker and a fit in Atlanta's offense.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars: Kelee Ringo*, CB, Georgia
The Jaguars will be tempted to go wide receiver here but, ultimately, wind up going with Ringo from Georgia. They need help defending the pass, and Ringo has size, straight-line speed and plays disciplined football.
12. Houston Texans (From Cleveland): Brian Bresee*, IDL, Clemson
The Texans have holes just about everywhere, but they rank 32nd against the run. They will need to address that issue early. Bresee can pierce the pocket and cause disruption in the backfield due to his hand usage and play strength. His ability to shed blockers is an asset in the run game.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
The Steelers carry on the family lineage (Joey Porter played and coached for the Steelers) and fill a hole on defense. Porter Jr. is long with excellent movement skills. He is excellent in press-man coverage but needs to play with more consistency.
14. Green Bay Packers: Quentin Johnston*, WR, TCU
The Packers finally draft a wide receiver for Aaron Rodgers in the first round right as they prepare to hand the baton to another quarterback. Johnston is the most physically gifted receiver in the draft, and his grade merits a much higher selection.
15. Detroit Lions: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Lions continue to load up on defense. Gonzalez has length, speed and production. He needs to finish plays at the catch point more consistently, but he has all the tools NFL teams are looking for.
16. Los Angeles Chargers: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
The Chargers have Keenan Allen and Mike Williams already. However, they do not have a player who can take the top off a defense. Hyatt checks that box, but he is also a complete receiver who can line up anywhere and make a difference.
17. Seattle Seahawks: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
If Seattle can re-sign Geno Smith, they can afford to give Richardson time to develop, which he is going to need. Richardson is extremely raw, but he has tons of upside. He has a rare combination of arm talent and athleticism.
18. New York Jets: Broderick Jones*, OT, Georgia
The Jets can't count on Mekhi Becton anymore. Whether it's Zach Wilson, Mike White or someone else under center, their quarterback isn't going to survive if they can't solidify their pass protection.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Tampa adds a reliable slot receiver for whoever is playing quarterback next year. Smith-Njigba opted out of the Buckeyes' CFP semifinal and barely played this year, but he was a massive producer last season, putting up 95 receptions for 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns while competing for targets with Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson.
20. Tennessee Titans: Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina
Tennessee drafted a big, physical target last year in the first round with their selection of Treylon Burks. Downs is a smaller, explosive receiver who can win vertically as well as make plays after the catch.
21. New England Patriots: Andre Carter, EDGE, Army
Belichick loves the military academies and Carter has a massive frame and upside. He is raw but has a 6-foot-10-inch wingspan. He wins with talent over technique. He could develop into the type of versatile defender the Patriots love.
22. Washington Commanders: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Witherspoon is not the biggest or most physically talented in this class of corners, but he plays a tough disciplined style that should fit right in with Ron Rivera.
23. New York Giants: Jordan Addison*, WR, USC
The former Biletnikoff Award winner fills a major position of need for the Giants. He doesn't wow you on tape, but he will be a very reliable player for Daniel Jones and the New York offense.
24. Miami Dolphins: Forfeited
25. Denver Broncos (From San Francisco): Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Last year, the Broncos drafted Greg Dulcich, who has shown flashes, but Mayer is the best tight end in the draft. Twelve-personnel is tough to handle with defenses today, and having two quality tight ends on your roster is a big advantage when facing 220-pound linebackers in sub-packages, which has become more of the norm. Mayer has mismatch qualities in the passing game with this size and ball skills. Having a pair of go-to tight ends would be huge for Denver.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
Forbes leads the FBS with six career interceptions returned for touchdowns. He has rare ball skills and production. He agitates opposing receivers and will not back down from any opponent — traits the Ravens could use in their secondary.
27. Cincinnati Bengals: Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M
Both of the Bengals' starting safeties are free agents. Johnson is an excellent athlete who can align all over the field. He moves well enough to line up over the slot and plays big enough to play in the box.
28. Dallas Cowboys: Jahmyr Gibbs*, RB, Alabama
It will be difficult for the Cowboys to keep Tony Pollard in free agency. If they lose him, they would miss his explosiveness. Gibbs would fill that void and provides slot versatility as well.
29. Kansas City Chiefs: Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland
Both left tackle Orlando Brown and right tackle Andrew Wylie are scheduled to be free agents. Mahomes can cover up some deficiencies, but they need to fortify the edges. Duncan has the athletic tools to play left tackle in the NFL. Drafting this late, they are fortunate to get a player with his talent at a premier position.
30. Minnesota Vikings: Cam Smith*, CB, South Carolina
The Vikings rank last in passing yards allowed per game and per play. Smith is a fluid athlete with quick feet and burst to mirror and match receivers.
31. Buffalo Bills: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Flowers is a small but explosive receiver, who would give Josh Allen yet another weapon. With a team as complete as the Bills, they have the luxury to stock up on playmakers.
32. Philadelphia Eagles: Jaylon Jones*, CB, Texas A&M
The Eagles come out of the first round with a pair of extremely talented players at two of the hardest-to-fill positions. Jones has good length and movement skills and would be a good fit if James Bradberry is lost in free agency.
