Expert Analysis
1/16/23
10 min read
2023 NFL Mock Draft 2.1: First-Round Predictions With Major Trade Movement
NFL Super Wild Card Weekend is in the books and that means the first 24 picks of the 2023 NFL Draft are officially set. The biggest movers from the first round of the playoffs are the Minnesota Vikings and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Vikings vaulted up four slots to the 24th pick after their loss to the Giants. The Jaguars moved down from pick 21 to pick 25 after their comeback win over the Chargers. This mock draft features even more movement with trades being projected throughout the first round.
Check out our latest mock draft (2.2).
Led by T.J. McCreight, The 33rd Team Scouting Department has been hard at work evaluating the top prospects in this class. A former player personnel executive for the Philadelphia Eagles and former director of college scouting for the Indianapolis Colts, McCreight has nearly 25 years of NFL scouting experience.
He is joined in the department by three scouts:
- Kevin Cohn, a former scouting assistant for the Jacksonville Jaguars and assistant director of player personnel for the University of Connecticut.
- Justin Casey, who worked for the Arizona Cardinals in football administration and then as the senior player personnel executive for the Montreal Alouettes.
- Evan Pritt, a former scouting assistant for the Philadelphia Eagles and former player personnel assistant for the University of Maryland.
Notes:
- The draft order for picks 1-24 is set but picks 25-32 will be determined by what happens in the remaining playoffs.
- This year’s first round only has 31 picks because the Miami Dolphins forfeited their selection for tampering with Tom Brady.
The 33rd Team 2023 Mock Draft 2.1
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1. Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama (Projected Trade with Chicago)
Chicago extracts some compensation after Lovie Smith and the Texans got their Week 18 win. Houston gets its franchise quarterback to build around.
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2. Indianapolis Colts: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky (Projected Trade with Chicago)
Chicago continues to build its stockpile of draft capital by moving down, and Indianapolis finally invests in a rookie quarterback after getting burned by the expensive Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan experiments over the past two years.
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3. Arizona Cardinals: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
The Cardinals hired Monti Ossenfort as their GM on Monday, but we don't know who the coach is going to be yet. Carter can be an impact player in any scheme. He's too good to pass up here.
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4. Chicago Bears: Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama (Projected Trade with Indianapolis)
Chicago has built up a stockpile of additional selections by trading down twice, and the Bears still get the guy they would have taken at No. 1 in Anderson.
>> Joe Banner: Bears Should Pick Difference-Making QB
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5. Carolina Panthers: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State (Projected Trade with Seattle)
Carolina gets a talented passer for the new coaching staff to build around, and Seattle decides to ride with Geno Smith for another season.
6. Detroit Lions (From LA Rams): Bryan Bresee, IDL, Clemson
The Lions get an interior stuffer to improve their lagging run defense, which gave up the fourth-most rushing yards in the league this past season.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
The Raiders get an athletic book-end tackle to pair with Kolton Miller and protect a veteran quarterback they are likely to sign prior to the draft.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
The Falcons are desperate for pass-rushing help after mustering only 21 sacks this season (ranking 31st in the NFL). Murphy is a speedy edge rusher who can step in right away and do just that.
9. Seattle Seahawks (From Denver): Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech (Projected Trade with Carolina)
We had the Seahawks taking Wilson at No. 5 in our previous mock draft, and Seattle is thrilled to land him here with the ninth pick.
10. New York Jets (From New Orleans): Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State (Projected Trade with Philadelphia)
The Jets move up ahead of Tennessee to ensure that they get the best pass-protecting left tackle in this draft.
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11. Tennessee Titans: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The most talented receiver in this draft falls right into the Titans' lap, and they get a top-tier receiver to pair with Treylon Burks. Adding first-round receivers in back-to-back drafts should signal a strategy shift as Derrick Henry ages.
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12. Houston Texans (From Cleveland): Jordan Addison, WR, USC
The Texans add the most polished receiver in this class to pair with Young. Even in a deep receiver class, Houston is unlikely to land a player like Addison later in this draft.
13. Philadelphia Eagles: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia (Projected Trade with New York Jets)
Ringo has some holes in his game, but he has the length and speed to succeed. He plays assignment-sound football and gives the Eagles depth at a premier position.
14. New England Patriots: Andre Carter, Edge, Army
Coach Bill Belichick loves the service academies, and he makes Carter the first service academy first-round pick since Tex Coulter in 1947.
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15. Green Bay Packers: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
GM Brian Gutekunst adds another weapon for Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love. Mayer is a true two-way tight end who offers coach Matt LaFleur a lot of versatility in Green Bay's offense.
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16. Seattle Seahawks: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida (Projected Trade with Washington)
Seattle moves up to make sure they get their developmental QB of the future in Richardson, who can wait behind Geno Smith for a couple of years. Richardson is ultra-talented but very raw.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
We're staying consistent with this legacy Steelers selection. His father was a linebacker for the Steelers.
18. Detroit Lions: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Lions offense was on fire to end the season, but the defense was a consistent problem. Detroit adds a lanky, athletic corner to help improve the 30th-ranked passing defense.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Tampa's interior offensive line struggles are well documented and a large part of the reason the Buccaneers' rushing attack fell off in 2022. Skoronski provides them with toughness and versatility.
20. Washington Commanders: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois (From Projected Trade with Seattle)
Witherspoon's aggressive physical play style is a good fit for the culture that Ron Rivera has built in Washington.
21. Miami Dolphins: Forfeited
The Miami Dolphins forfeit their first round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
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22. Los Angeles Chargers: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
The Chargers ran the ball seven times for seven yards in the second half of their playoff meltdown last weekend. Robinson is one of the highest-graded players in this class, and he is a do-it-all back. A backfield pairing of Justin Herbert and Bijan Robinson could be lethal for years to come.
23. Baltimore Ravens: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
Rashod Bateman missed the majority of this season because of injury, but Baltimore still needs to add additional playmakers heading into 2023. Hyatt provides instant offense to a team that struggled to put points on the board.
24. Minnesota Vikings: Brian Branch, CB/S Alabama
The Vikings went secondary heavy in the draft last year, but it didn't pay off for the 31st-ranked passing defense. Branch is a smart and versatile defense back who they will find a way to get on the field.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi St.
The Jaguars need some help opposite former second-round pick Tyson Campbell. Forbes will bring a swagger and playmaking ability to their 28th-ranked passing defense.
26. New York Giants: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
The Giants pieced their linebacker grouping together this season, and Simpson would give them a versatile building block for the middle of their defense. Playing behind Dexter Lawrence, Simpson should be free to wreak havoc.
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27. Dallas Cowboys: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
With Tony Pollard entering free agency and Ezekiel Elliott entering his eight NFL season, the Cowboys could be looking to add a running back early in the 2023 NFL Draft. Gibbs gives them an explosive playmaker out of the backfield with the versatility to line up in the slot, which is especially valuable if Pollard leaves.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
Eli Apple is a free agent and has been inconsistent. Smith is a lean twitchy corner who has shown he can perform against top level competition.
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29. Denver Broncos (from San Francisco through Miami): Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
When your quarterback is struggling, give him good tight end play. Kincaid is a true mismatch tight end who can stretch the defense.
30. Buffalo Bills: Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M
The Bills will have some questions to answer at safety in the offseason. Johnson is an athletic safety who can match up with tight ends and cover a lot of ground.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
Jones can step in for Orlando Brown if they lose him in free agency, or the two of them can form the twin towers to protect Mahomes.
32. Philadelphia Eagles: B.J. Ojulari, Edge, LSU
GM Howie Roseman loves to stock up on edge rushers and keeps the pantry full by adding Ojulari.
