Analysis
11/9/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 10 Betting Preview: Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
Broncos (3-5) at Bills (5-4)
Spread: Bills -7.5
Total: 47
Weather: No current concerns
The Line Report
The spread and total for this contest only saw brief fluctuations early this week.
Bills Offense vs. Broncos Defense
The Buffalo Bills’ offense was destroying opposing defenses early in the season. It has become an uncharacteristically inconsistent group since its Week 5 trip to London against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Stefon Diggs continues to be the centerpiece of Josh Allen’s passing attack. Diggs leads the league in receptions (70), and he’s top five in receiving yards, receiving touchdowns and target share.
Gabe Davis has been an asset this season, but his production is inconsistent. Khalil Shakir is the distant WR3, but most of his productive games have been in the past two weeks. The Denver Broncos are allowing the 10th-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers.
The Broncos are giving up the most receiving yards to tight ends this season. Dalton Kincaid has at least seven targets and 65 receiving yards in his past three games. Kincaid is a major part of Buffalo’s passing attack, but he’s been more of a short passing game target earner.
Denver is giving up the second-most rushing yards and the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs. A lot of that rushing production came early in the year when the Dolphins hung 70 points on Denver.
James Cook is 11th in the league in rushing yards and 17th among running backs in receiving yards. Latavius Murray has been the primary supplement behind Cook, but Leonard Fournette could start cutting into Murray’s role.
Broncos Offense vs. Bills Defense
Russell Wilson has 16 touchdown passes and just four interceptions this season. He’s also thrown for fewer than 200 passing yards in each of his past four games.
Injuries have reduced Buffalo’s secondary, but it is giving up the 18th-most receiving yards to wide receivers. Jerry Jeudy narrowly leads the team in target share (22.7 percent) over Courtland Sutton (21.6 percent).
Sutton has six touchdown receptions to Jeudy’s one, but otherwise, both receivers have similar roles with comparable production. Marvin Mims Jr. has been impressive in limited action. With Denver coming off its bye, there’s a reasonable chance he sees some role expansion.
Javonte Williams had 27 carries and three targets in Denver’s last game: a win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Williams has double-digit carries in six of his seven games this season.
Rookie Jaleel McLaughlin is explosive, but he’s only serving as a supplement to Williams. The Bills give up the 10th-most rushing yards and the third-most receiving yards to running backs.
What You’re Betting On
A bet on Buffalo is on Allen’s Bills returning to form against a volatile opponent. Buffalo is suddenly in a desperate position at 5-4, a positive for Bills’ bettors. The other angle you have on a Bills bet is it’s a direct bet against the Broncos version of Wilson. Ultimately, if you’re betting on the Bills, you are betting on Allen.
If you’re betting on Denver, you build that bet around a few core concepts. The first is that the Broncos’ defense played its three best games of the season before the bye. Two of those outputs came against the Chiefs.
If a team can limit Kansas City, it can potentially limit Buffalo. The second is Denver is coming off its bye to face an uncharacteristically inconsistent Bills team. The third is even if Allen carries Buffalo, we should not count on Wilson keeping pace, but he’s at least capable.
Score Prediction: Bills 27, Broncos 17
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 24-21
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 18-15
Ryan is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. Ryan has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
