Betting
11/18/23
8 min read
2023 NFL Week 11 Player Prop Bets: Smash This Dak Prescott Passing Bet
Each week, more than half a dozen analysts from The 33rd Team will discuss prop betting strategy behind the scenes. This article will encompass all the player prop bets the team believes are strong plays for that week.
The fastest way to access all our weekly player prop bets is in our FREE Discord via the prop-bets channel.
Follow the team of prop bettors behind this weekly article on Twitter:
William S. (Dr. Profit)
Patrick H. (TackleBoxProps)
We’ll also link the picks article here from Racz (Underdog). Also, look for betting picks videos from Tanner Kern and an article from Samantha Previte that might have another betting pick.
Top Week 11 Player Props
Aaron Jones Longest Rush Under 13.5 Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Simply put, Aaron Jones has yet to have a rush of 14 or more yards this season. Over the past two weeks, he’s seen the most work he’s seen all season — 20 carries and 13 carries — but his longest rush was just nine yards on those 33 carries.
As if that doesn't bode well for Jones, teams pass the ball at the sixth-highest rate against the Los Angeles Chargers, averaging 38 attempts per game, which is the third-most. Only 3.2 percent of running back rushes against the Chargers have been 14 or more yards — that's the eighth-fewest in the league.
When you have an opportunity for a 50/50 bet based on the -115 odds, where a player has 62 negative results on 62 attempts, and his opponent allows it only four percent of the time, it's probably +EV.
Bet by: Wolby, Larky
Jordan Love OVER 19.5 Completions
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Jordan Love is 6-3 on this number, including 4-0 in his past four games. All nine teams that faced the Chargers this year completed at least 20 passes (9-0 to this over).
Bet by: Larky, Reynolds
Dak Prescott Over 258.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
The Dallas Cowboys have become very pass-centric over the last month, and Dak Prescott has beaten this number in four straight and by a wide margin in each of his previous three games.
Overall, he’s 5-4 on the year on this line. One of those misses came against the San Francisco 49ers, and another was vs. the New York Giants on opening day.
This brings me to my chief concern: a defensive score or blowout is your concern here. I also bet on Prescott to win MVP at 40-1, and you can get him at a slight value on FanDuel right now.
Bet by: Reynolds, Larky
Dalton Kincaid Longest Reception UNDER 18.5 Yards
Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings
This isn’t sexy – I get that. Dalton Kincaid has been awesome this season, but on his 45 receptions, just two were 19 yards or longer, which is fewer than five percent.
Assuming statistical independence on Kincaid’s receptions, he needs 12 receptions for this line to be fair value. Granted, two of those receptions came in the last three games, and with Dawson Knox’s injury, that's relevant.
Still, with two receptions of 19 or more yards from his past 20 receptions, that's just 10 percent, meaning fair value is six receptions. Kincaid has had more than six receptions just twice this season.
You look at the other side of the ball, and the New York Jets have allowed the fewest receptions of 19 or more yards to the tight end position this season. Not just that, they’re allowing the fewest receptions of 19 or more yards in general, too.
Bet by: Wolby, Larky
DK Metcalf Over 61.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
DK Metcalf has beaten this in five of eight games and has at least nine targets in three of his last four games. His catch rate is really low.
I like to bet on regression in these types of situations, and I’m going to play this game in DFS, where I will likely same game parlay this with overs on the Los Angeles Rams side. The concern here is that Geno Smith has not been very good.
Bet by: Reynolds, Larky
D’Andre Swift OVER 13.5 Rush Attempts
Best Odds: -105 on DraftKings
D'Andre Swift didn’t really play in Week 1. Since then, he’s 7-1 on this line, with 17 carries per game on average during that span. Running back rooms are averaging 19 carries per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs.
Swift had three times as many carries as anyone else in that backfield since Week 2. The Chiefs allow the third-lowest yards per pass attempt to quarterbacks but the second-highest yards per carry to running backs as a defense.
This is a solid matchup, and the Eagles are only 2.5-point underdogs, so game script should allow for the Eagles to continue to run the ball.
Bet by: Larky, Reynolds
Sam LaPorta Over 44.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -105 on DraftKings
Sam LaPorta is 6-3 on this line this season, averaging 53 yards per game, nearly 10 more than this line. You're getting some value right off the bat because the line is 46.5 at -115 odds on FanDuel.
First, the Chicago Bears run the highest rate of Cover 2 in the NFL, and LaPorta leads all relevant TEs with a target on 42 percent of routes against Cover 2. In the games where he’s seen four routes vs. Cover 2, he’s 3-2 on this line, but in one of those losses, he saw 11 targets, and in the other, he saw five receptions.
The volume will be there for LaPorta to beat this number, and he’s emerged as one of the best tight ends over the season. The Bears also run the 13th-highest rate of Cover 3, which is statistically the most likely coverage LaPorta will see on a given play.
LaPorta ranks fourth among relevant tight ends with 2.4 yards per route run against Cover 3. Given his usage and performance, the discrepancy and value in the line on FanDuel, and his success against these coverages, I think 44.5 is an extremely beatable number at -105 odds.
Bet by: Wolby, Larky
Trevor Lawrence Over 241.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
I’ll also play some Trevor Lawrence in DFS this week, and I like him coming off a blowout loss to the 49ers.
The Tennessee Titans are giving up the 14th most passing yards per game. But they’ve also played the Atlanta Falcons, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts and Lamar Jackson — who doesn’t throw for a lot of yards.
Baker Mayfield went over, and so did Justin Herbert against the Titans. Ultimately, the situation is the same: if your offensive line can hold up to Tennessee's defensive front, you can hurt them through the air.
Bet by: Reynolds, Larky
Rachaad White UNDER 44.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -105 on DraftKings
Rachaad White has had 20 carries in the past two weeks against the Titans and Houston Texans. So, at face value, this looks like a terrible bet. But we need more context. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were always in those games.
Before that, he had nine carries for 39 yards vs. the Buffalo Bills. And 13 carries for 34 yards vs. the Falcons. Prior to that, he went 7-26 vs. the Detroit Lions. When facing the Philadelphia Eagles earlier this year, he had 14 for 38 yards, which is probably what we should expect in him this week against the 49ers.
Tampa Bay is 12-point underdogs, so I think the 9-39 vs. the Bills and 14-38 vs. the Eagles are a sign of what’s to come. White's carries could be game-scripted out of this game early, and the 49ers have the best defensive front in football now with Chase Young joining the team.
Bet by: Larky, Reynolds
Harrison Phillips (MIN) UNDER 6.5 tackles + assists
Best odds: +100 on MGM and Draftkings
Harrison Phillips has gone under this total in seven out of 10 games this season, and only over once in the last eight games. The Denver Broncos rank second to last in tackles allowed to interior defensive linemen this year at 7.0 per game.
Not one interior lineman has had more than five total tackles against the Broncos this season, and the only defensive lineman to go over this total all year was Edge George Karlaftis with a seven-tackle game in Week 8.
The Denver stat crew is neutral having given out the 13th most assists and 17th most total tackles per opportunity. My model has this going under around 79 percent of the time. I'm personally playing it for 1.5 units
Bet by: Patrick H.
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