Fantasy
11/20/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 11 DFS Lineup Recap: What We Can Learn From Results
In DFS, crafting the perfect lineup is an art and a science. It requires a deep understanding of player dynamics, game environments and the unpredictable nature of sports.
In the following article, we will review two of our lineups to give you insight into how we constructed them and where we went wrong.
Week 11 DFS Lineup Recap
Mark Garcia’s Review
Contest: $100 Spy
Entrants: 4,444
The theme of this week was getting back to my roots and identifying spots for smart leverage. I entered $750 worth of contests in the three variations of the Spy and the mid-range Power Sweep ($150 entry, 1,481 entries, $50,000 to first). Overall, I had a relative break-even week with a slight profit. My best-performing roster in the 4,444-entry, $100 Spy.
On that roster, I anchored with a Brock Purdy double stack of Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, adding in Trey McBride for the dreaded double-tight-end with a correlated mini-stack, including Tank Dell. I knew Purdy would garner ownership. His pass-catchers came in relatively under-owned, meaning I didn’t have to be worried about the expected ownership on McBride and Dell because my roster construction was already unique.
I saw an opportunity to pivot off the ownership on Devin Singletary with Jerome Ford, who surged to an early touchdown before being phased out of the offense in the second half. Looking back, it was fine to play Singletary at ownership knowing the Purdy double stack would come in with low ownership.
Raheem Mostert was projected for under five percent ownership in the sub-elite tier of running back pricing. Still, the Miami Dolphins were implied for 30 points, and there were significant ambiguities with that backfield.
I saw that as an opportunity to gain access to an elite offense at low ownership, which also altered the way salary was being spent away from the chalk build on the week. The backs on the roster didn’t pan out — I was happy with one decision (Mostert) and upset at the other (Ford over Singletary).
DJ Moore had gone over 100 receiving yards in three of five games with a fully healthy Justin Fields, making Moore one of the top salary savers on the slate. He hit 96 yards and a touchdown through the first three quarters before going untargeted in the fourth, as the Chicago Bears collapsed into grind-out mode.
Surprise: They lost with that game plan. The New York Jets' defense was the top on-paper option below $3,000 and fit this construction because I knew I didn’t have to be worried about ownership.
Overall, my rosters included two Purdy stacks, two Jordan Love stacks (went over 300 passing yards for the first time in his career), one Fields stack and one Justin Herbert stack. I was happy with that dispersal and allocation of stacks across my rosters because each carried significant leverage. Austin Ekeler completely failing in a solid spot kept me from making serious money.
Jordan Vanek’s Lineup
Contest: NFL $75K Spy Single Entry
Entrants: 833
The lineup heavily relied on pricey running backs for premium points, but they fell short. To improve, I could have substituted Ekeler with Jahmyr Gibbs for a mini-stack with Moore, capitalizing on a favorable game environment.
Instead of De’Von Achane, I could've opted for Singletary. Achane is an unknown because he was injured and we did not get a chance to see how he would have performed.
The next step would be to pair Singletary in a mini-stack with Rondale Moore instead of playing Jayden Reed because we got off of Ekeler and are always chasing correlation. This gives us an extra bit of salary and a clear path to be unique.
We could've diversified by swapping Pat Freiermuth with Kittle at tight end. Change Deebo Samuel to Brian Robinson Jr. in the flex for both differentiation and increased potential. These strategic adjustments could have secured a $8,000 second-place finish in the contest.
The biggest miss of was being worried about the Jacksonville Jaguars after their recent performances and lack of creative usage for their premier players. Zay Jones adds the flexibility the team's offense has been lacking, and Calvin Ridley can now play a much better role.
