Fantasy
11/18/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 11: Top Underdog Higher, Lower Entries to Consider
We will evaluate the projections available on Underdog Fantasy each week and craft entries that leverage game environments and correlation to maximize value.
Week 11 Higher/Lower Entries
C.J. Stroud LOWER than 267.5 passing yards, Dalton Schultz LOWER than 50.5 receiving yards and Marquise Brown LOWER than 57.5 receiving yards
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The Arizona Cardinals visit the Houston Texans in an unexpectedly exciting game, with the emergence of C.J. Stroud as a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback and the return of Kyler Murray.
That said, the Texans’ poor rushing defense might lead Arizona to capture more time of possession than expected. If the Cardinals feature a heavy dose of their rushing attack via James Conner or Murray, they could field long drives that drain the clock.
Within the Arizona passing attack, Trey McBride and Michael Wilson should have opportunities relatively as often as Marquise Brown, as the former two players succeed more often against zone coverage, which the Texans run almost as much as any other team in the league.
Yet, Brown's receiving projection is significantly higher than Wilson’s and higher than McBride’s, offering a valuable opportunity on Brown’s lower than 57.5 receiving yards.
Fewer plays for the Texans’ offense should translate to fewer opportunities for Stroud passing yards. With Nico Collins returning from injury and Tank Dell healthy, tight end Dalton Schultz looks to be the third target if Noah Brown does not play. On a slightly above-average offense, a projection of 50.5 receiving yards for a third option is too lofty.
Dak Prescott HIGHER than 259.5 passing yards, DeeDee Lamb HIGHER than 82.5 receiving yards and Frankie Luvu HIGHER than 9.0 tackles + assists
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Since the Dallas Cowboys’ week 7 bye, their offense has featured CeeDee Lamb on the outside more often, relative to his previous slot-heavy usage. Lamb has recorded 150 or more yards in their three post-bye games, while Dak Prescott has thrown for at least 300 yards on every occasion post-bye.
When Lamb eclipses 83 receiving yards, it likely means that the Cowboys’ passing attack has successfully moved the ball down the field. Accordingly, this entry correlates with Prescott throwing for at least 260 yards. In the five games Prescott has thrown for at least 260 yards, Lamb has hauled in at least 83 yards four times.
When the Cowboys move the ball, the Carolina Panthers’ defense will have to stay on the field longer, making Frankie Luvu a candidate to outperform his tackle and assist projection.
Tyreek Hill HIGHER than 88.5 receiving yards, Aidan O’Connell LOWER than 31.5 passing attempts and Tua Tagovailoa HIGHER than 262.5 passing yards
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The Miami Dolphins come off their bye week and face the Las Vegas Raiders. Head coach Mike McDaniel has had tremendous success facing teams outside his division, averaging 2.3 yards more per passing attempt.
While some of this success comes from the relative strength of the defenses of his AFC East foes, much comes from the inability of the defense to adequately prepare for the Dolphins’ aerial attack in their first matchup.
In five of the Dolphins’ first nine games, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 263 or more yards. In four of those games, Tyreek Hill had at least 110 receiving yards (with one game of only 58). When the Dolphins’ passing game succeeds, Hill is a significant contributor.
In games where the Dolphins successfully move the ball through the air, they are likely to field multiple long drives and presumably try to run the clock out toward the end. The Raiders’ available play volume will significantly decrease in this game script, making it difficult for quarterback Aidan O’Connell to record at least 32 passing attempts.
