Betting
12/2/23
6 min read
2023 NFL Week 13 Player Prop Bets: Smash This Najee Harris Rushing Bet
Each week, more than half a dozen analysts from The 33rd Team will discuss prop betting strategy behind the scenes. This article will encompass all the player prop bets the team believes are strong plays for that week.
The fastest way to access all our weekly player prop bets is in our FREE Discord via the prop-bets channel.
Follow the team of prop bettors behind this weekly article on Twitter:
William S. (Dr. Profit)
Patrick H. (TackleBoxProps)
We’ll link the picks articles here from Racz (Underdog), too. Also, look for betting picks videos from Tanner Kern and an article from Samantha Previte that may have another betting pick.
Top Week 13 Player Props
Breece Hall UNDER 52.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Breece Hall has been under this number in six straight games, including under 30 in his past three. He’s also been under four yards per carry (YPC) in each of his past six. He’s averaging 11.7 carries for 30 yards (2.6 YPC) in those past six. Overall, he’s 3-8 to this under.
Tim Boyle will start again for the New York Jets, so expect the Atlanta Falcons to stack the box on defense. The Falcons are also a solid run defense, allowing the eighth-lowest YPC to RBs (3.8). Hall is also dealing with a hamstring injury.
Bet by: Larky
Keenan Allen UNDER 90.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Bill Belichick is famous for making offenses play left-handed. Making Sunday difficult for Keenan Allen is an obvious macro game plan. Allen is having a career year, but that’s been primarily built on five massive games. He’s gone under this number in the other six.
Bet by: Reynolds
Amari Cooper OVER 47.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Amari Cooper has had 14 targets, six receptions, and 50 yards in the past two games. Overall, this year, he’s only 6-5 on this line.
However, Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) has started three games this year, and Cooper has totaled seven receptions for 66 yards in that span — 22 yards per game — going 0-3 on this line. In non-Thompson-Robinson games, Cooper is 6-2 on this line. Thompson-Robinson has averaged just 140 passing yards per start this year.
Joe Flacco is starting at quarterback for the Cleveland Browns this week and should provide more stable quarterback play. Last year, Flacco averaged 262 passing yards per game for the New York Jets in his four starts. The Los Angeles Rams are just an average pass defense.
I also like 75+ yards at +310 (24 percent implied odds) and 100+ yards at +825 (11 percent) on Bet365 sportsbook. Cooper has 75+ yards in five of eight (63 percent) non-Thompson-Robinson games and 100+ yards in three of eight (38 percent) non-Thompson-Robinson games, so there’s some value there, too.
Bet by: Larky
Deebo Samuel OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
This is primarily a matchups-based play. The Philadelphia Eagles have a high-end pass rush, but they’ve allowed the third-most yards per game to wide receivers.
Now, enter the league’s toughest runner at wide receiver in Deebo Samuel. He’s beaten this in six of nine games. Samuel had goose eggs in two of his three losses, and it’s tough to see him getting minimal usage in such an important game.
Bet by: Reynolds
Najee Harris OVER 54.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
The Arizona Cardinals allow 4.4 YPC, the eighth-highest in the NFL. Teams have executed 27 running back rush attempts per game against Arizona, the highest in the league. Translating that to production, the 120 rush yards per game allowed are second-highest.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5.5-point favorites, so game script should be in their favor to run the ball. Najee Harris has been over this in three of his past four games, and the Steelers' run game has been trending up.
His last four games had stat lines of 16-69 vs. the Titans, 16-82 vs. the Packers, 12-35 vs. the Browns and 15-99 vs. the Bengals last week. In general, he’s been over this number against bad run defenses (Bengals, Packers, Texans and Raiders) and under against good run defenses (Jaguars, Ravens, 49ers and the Browns in both their matchups). He missed against the Rams’ average unit (14-53, so very close).
I also like him to hit 75 rushing yards on Bet365 at +265 (27 percent implied odds).
Bet by: Larky
Diontae Johnson OVER 47.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Diontae Johnson has beaten this in five of seven games. The two games he went under were against the Browns and Packers — two much better CB groups than Arizona. The Cardinals give up the eighth-most receiving yards per game to WRs.
The Steelers no longer have OC Matt Canada. I actually kind of like all the Steelers main components in their passing game this week. My primary concern is there could be some weather issues.
Bet by: Reynolds
Tyreek Hill Longest Reception OVER 30.5
Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings
Tyreek Hill is 7-4 on this number, averaging one reception of 31 yards or longer per game and has more receptions of 31+ than any other player in the NFL.
Washington is the the worst passing defense in the NFL and is allowing more receptions of 31+ than any other team in the NFL. Nearly 10 percent of their receptions allowed go for 31 or more yards.
Bet on the player who has done this more than any other player against the defense who has allowed it more than any other defense.
Bet by: Wolby
Christian Kirk Longest Reception OVER 21.5
Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings
Christian Kirk is 9-2 on this number, and 18 percent of his receptions have gone for 22 yards or more. That number ranks seventh most. He lines up in the slot on 66 percent of his snaps, and 20 percent of slot WR receptions vs Cincinnati have gone for 22 or more, which is also the seventh most.
Assuming statistical independence and randomness, Kirk would need three receptions for this line to be mathematically fair value; He’s had more than three receptions in all but three games this season. Simply put, this line is mispriced at -110.
Bet by: Wolby
D'Andre Swift Longest Reception UNDER 10.5
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
D’Andre Swift is 4-7 over this line and has only had five receptions of 11 or longer this season (about 15 percent of his total). Assuming statistical independence and randomness, that makes five receptions needed for Swift for this line to be fair value at random.
Swift has only topped that number twice this season. The San Francisco 49ers have a solid defense and are allowing the sixth-fewest yards per reception to running backs.
A concern is that the 49ers have allowed 13 receptions of 11 or longer to running backs, which is the seventh most, but over half of those receptions came on RB screens. Swift has only seen two screens this entire season, and those two screens totaled 4 yards.
Bet by: Wolby
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