Fantasy
12/11/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 14 DFS Lineup Recap: What We Can Learn From Results
In DFS, crafting the perfect lineup is an art and a science. It requires a deep understanding of player dynamics, game environments and the unpredictable nature of sports.
In the following article, we will review two of our lineups to give you insight into how we constructed them and where we went wrong.
WEEK 14 DFS LINEUP RECAP
Mark Garcia’s Review
Contest: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1 million to first]
Entrants: 5,005
There was one major aspect of this slate that set it apart from any of the previous main slates this season: information. This was the slate of information overload.
We had information regarding the weather that people were worried about, we had information regarding quarterback situations that were throwing people for a loop (e.g., Trevor Lawrence and Joe Flacco), and we had information about backfields. That led to a situation where the field was likely to struggle with identifying the top on-paper spots and to struggle to parse the information.
That led me to a roster core built around the top on-paper plays with three specific leverage situations that I knew would go overlooked mainly due to the information overload. With Flacco and Lawrence starting for their respective teams (against each other), that game environment carried more upside than if those two were sitting.
Furthermore, the elevated pressure rates from the Cleveland Browns' defense paired well with Christian Kirk's absence to form a situation where Evan Engram became a high-confidence play at minuscule ownership. Amari Cooper made a beautiful mini correlation to Engram — Cooper led the Browns in targets prior to departing with an injury with Flacco under center in Week 13.
The other major leverage pull was James Cook, who had seen elite volume in the two weeks following the offensive coordinator change for the Buffalo Bills. At that point, I knew I didn’t need to pull any other levers and could simply play some top on-paper plays at ownership.
That included my primary game stack of Jake Browning, Ja’Marr Chase and Zack Moss — in addition to DJ Moore and Rashee Rice, who were materially underpriced relative to their recent roles in their respective offenses.
The Indianapolis Colts–Cincinnati Bengals game did not disappoint from the perspective of points scored, but the bulk of that production surprisingly came through two Bengals running backs, leaving my primary stack short of GPP viability.
Either way, I was happy with the process this week, which included a solid base of information gathering. That gave me the best chances of reacting to late-week information in a +EV manner, knowing that the field was likely to struggle to react to a changing landscape due to the information overload present at the beginning of the week.
It was another profitable week, and we’re on to the next!
Jordan Vanek’s Review
Contest: NFL $250,000 Flea Flicker [$50,000 to first, 150 Entry Max]
Entrants: 59,453
I aimed to maximize the combinations of the Desmond Ridder build for the upcoming weekend, entering 150 lineups into the $5 Flea Flicker contest. The optimizer produced one of the most promising builds, centered on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers–Atlanta Falcons game, incorporating an overstack complemented by one-offs in other favorable environments. However, the points were not there for Chris Godwin or Alvin Kamara.
In hindsight, I'd have shifted from Kamara, Godwin and Kyle Pitts to Bijan Robinson, Deebo Samuel and Isaiah Likely. These adjustments would have yielded a higher point total of 226.08, securing the $50,000 prize. Importantly, this change maintains the strategy of relying on two Falcons players to support Ridder.
Reflecting on the weekend's outcomes, chalk running backs presented a challenge. Zack Moss has underperformed in back-to-back weeks, and the field continues to play him. Thinking of how he could fail should have been a bigger part of my process, and in hindsight,I could have gone with a Michael Pittman Jr. and Joe Mixon mini-stack. Acknowledging the susceptibility of running backs to game script dynamics, especially if the game takes an unexpected turn early on, underscores the importance of a nuanced approach to player selection.
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