Betting
12/7/23
6 min read
2023 NFL Week 14 Player Prop Bets: Smash This Justin Fields Passing Bet
Each week, more than half a dozen analysts from The 33rd Team will discuss prop betting strategy behind the scenes. This article will encompass all the player prop bets the team believes are strong plays for that week.
The fastest way to access all our weekly player prop bets is in our FREE Discord via the prop-bets channel.
Follow the team of prop bettors behind this weekly article on Twitter:
William S. (Dr. Profit)
Patrick H. (TackleBoxProps)
We’ll link the picks articles here from Racz (Underdog), too. Also, look for betting picks videos from Tanner Kern and an article from Samantha Previte that may have another betting pick.
Top Week 14 Player Props
Justin Fields OVER 195.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
This is already up to 201.5 passing yards on FanDuel. In seven full games this year, Justin Fields is 5-2 on this line (he left one game early due to injury after only 10 pass attempts). The only quarterbacks to not go over 195.5 yards vs. the Detroit Lions are Jimmy Garoppolo and Fields. Overall, quarterbacks are 10-2 on this over.
Fields didn't hit this number when he played the Lions in Week 11, but that was a strange game script where Chicago was leading by multiple touchdowns late in the game. Fields had all 169 of his passing yards through three quarters, then only attempted one (incomplete) pass in the fourth quarter.
The Lions are favorites in this game, and I wouldn't anticipate another two-touchdown lead for Chicago, so Fields should have to throw throughout the game. The Lions' pass defense has crumbled in recent weeks, allowing 8.7 yards per pass attempt since Week 7 (second-highest in the NFL).
Also, the Lions lost DT Alim McNeill to injured reserve this past week. He is one of their second-best pass rusher behind Aidan Hutchinson. With a weaker pass rush and an already struggling secondary, Fields is a solid bet to clear 195.5 yards.
Bet by: Larky
Rachaad White UNDER 61.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on ESPN Bet
Tampa Bay’s run game has been broken all year and Rachaad White is 8-4 to the under this year. The Atlanta Falcons allow the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs at the sixth-lowest yards per carry. White is coming off a stretch of at least 14 carries in four straight games, the first time all year. He hadn’t had more than back-to-back games like that previously this year. And still, White was 3-1 to the under over his past four games. White is averaging 3.7 YPC, and the Falcons give up 3.7 YPC. At that rate, he’d need 17 carries to hit the over. He’s reached 17 carries in less than half his games this year, plus it’s a bad matchup.
Bet by: Larky
Jake Browning Under 22.5 Completions
Best Odds: +100 on DraftKings
He looked like Peyton Manning in front of a national audience and had 32 completions in that game. Jordan Vanek informed us that he’s going to be chalk this week in DFS, and I’d like to bet against that. I don’t expect him to make tight window throws at a high volume most weeks. He had just 19 completions against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Also, it could be a little windy, but that’s trending towards being less of a factor this week.
Bet by: Reynolds
James Cook OVER 48.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -105 on ESPN Bet
James Cook is 7-5 on the over, and he’s averaging 4.8 YPC. The Kansas City Chiefs coincidentally give up 4.8 YPC to RBs (second-most). Using those averages, Cook needs about 10 carries to hit this over, and he has at least 10 carries in 10 of 12 games this year. The spread is just one point, so game script probably shouldn’t be too much of an issue here. I also like 75 or more rushing yards at +450 odds on the Bet365 sportsbook.
Bet by: Larky
Josh Allen Over 261.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Josh Allen is 7-5 on this number for 2023. He’s thrown for over 300 yards against the Chiefs in each of their last three matchups. He’s 4-1 against them in his career. The Chiefs defense was shredded by Jordan Love last week, and the Bills season is on the line. The spread has moved in their favor all week even though ticket volume has been on the Kansas City side.
Bet by: Reynolds
George Kittle UNDER 4.5 Receptions
Best Odds: -160 on FanDuel
Odds of -160 implies about a 61 percent chance of this hitting, according to the sportsbook. Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle have overlapped in nine games this year, and Kittle is 8-1 to the under 4.5 receptions. Brock Purdy has attempted more than 31 passes just once this year, so there are volume concerns for receptions in this offense. Additionally, the San Francisco 49ers are 11-point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks, so they may not need to pass much in the second half. I think he hits this under in roughly 75-80 percent of his games when Samuel and Aiyuk are active, so I see some value here despite the seemingly gross odds of -160.
Bet by: Larky
Dalton Kincaid Over 38.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
He’s beat this in five of his last six games. The one that lost, he had 38 yards on the dot. The Chiefs have been very good against tight ends, allowing the fourth-fewest yards at 36 per game. However, the only TEs of note they played were TJ Hockenson (51 yards), Evan Engram (57 yards) and Sam LaPorta (39 in his NFL debut). What I like the most about this play is that Dalton Kincaid is the new wrinkle in Buffalo’s offense, a short-to-intermediate option for their passing game outside of Stefon Diggs.
Bet by: Reynolds
Jerry Jeudy OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -105 on ESPN Bet
Jerry Jeudy is 7-4 to the over this year. The Los Angeles Chargers allow the most passing yards per game (290) and the fourth-most yards to WRs (180). It’s a dome game in Los Angeles, so there’s no weather concerns.
Bet by: Larky
Rayshawn Jenkins OVER 4.5 tackles + assists
Best odds: -130 on Bet365
Jacksonville Jaguars safety Rayshawn Jenkins has gone over this total in nine out of 12 games. Two of the three times he failed to go over this number were against bottom-10 matchups for safety tackles. The Cleveland Browns have given up the 11th most tackles to safeties this year at 14.1 per game, and they have allowed 20 safeties to go over this total through 12 games.
There have been 12 safeties that have played greater than 85 percent of snaps, while also lining up 15+ snaps in the box against the Browns this year, and 10 of them have gone over this number.
The Cleveland stat crew has given out the ninth most assists and the sixth most total tackles per opportunity to road teams this year. My model has this going over around 75 percent of the time.
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