Fantasy
12/9/23
3 min read
2023 NFL Week 14: Top Underdog Higher, Lower Entries To Consider
We will evaluate the projections available on Underdog Fantasy each week and craft entries that leverage game environments and correlation to maximize value.
WEEK 14 HIGHER/LOWER ENTRIES
Roquan Smith LOWER than 10.0 tackles and assists, Cooper Kupp LOWER than 45.5 receiving yards and Matthew Stafford LOWER than 14.05 fantasy points
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The Los Angeles Rams travel to take on the Baltimore Ravens in one of multiple poor-weather games this week. Strong wind gusts and rain might create a game environment where sustained offensive success is difficult.
The Rams’ offense still runs through Puka Nacua, who has outgained Cooper Kupp in three of their past four common games. As a likely second option who still might be playing through a hamstring injury, Kupp would have difficulty clearing 46 yards against an average defense. This season, the Ravens’ defense ranks in the top three in dropback expected points added (EPA) and success rate, making this a far less favorable matchup for their passing attack.
When the Rams’ offense is more likely to fail at maintaining long drives, Roquan Smith will have fewer opportunities to record tackles. While Smith has had at least 11 tackles and assists in every Ravens’ loss this season, he has failed to register double-digit total tackles in half of their wins and has only recorded more than 10 tackles in two of their nine wins.
Geno Smith LOWER than 248.5 passing and rushing yards, DK Metcalf LOWER than 4.0 first downs and Fred Warner LOWER than 7.5 tackles and assists
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Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks visit the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of their game two weeks ago. While Smith likely will play this week at relatively full strength, a groin-muscle injury late in the week might have lingering effects that decrease the Seahawks' offensive success. Receiver DK Metcalf would require five first downs to exceed his projection, a lofty expectation given his weekly average of 3.55 receiving first downs per game.
San Francisco’s defense ranks eighth in dropback success rate and fifth in dropback EPA, making this a more difficult-than-average matchup for the Seahawks’ offense. If the Seahawks do not successfully field drives that rely on their aerial attack, Fred Warner has fewer opportunities to record tackles or assists.
Jahmyr Gibbs HIGHER than 11.25 fantasy points, Justin Fields HIGHER than 196.5 passing yards and DJ Moore HIGHER than 11.25 fantasy points
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The Detroit Lions face off against the Chicago Bears in a game with moderate to low weather effects. With Justin Fields and DJ Moore healthy, the Bears’ passing offense has run through their new No. 1 receiver. In Fields’ five starts this season with at least 197 passing yards, Moore has recorded at least 13.5 fantasy points four times.
The Detroit Lions’ passing defense is slightly below the league average, ranking 17th in dropback EPA and 23rd in dropback success rate. The Bears’ offense should not approach this matchup with much of a tendency shift from its typical approach, given the Lions’ relatively average passing and rushing defenses.
When the Lions have the ball, their running back rotation should continue to see split work between David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. If Gibbs sees his usual workload of eight to 10 carries and four to six targets, he should project for around 12.5 fantasy points, so his projection of 11.25 offers value, barring an injury.
