Fantasy

12/13/23

11 min read

2023 NFL Week 15 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings

By Ian Miller

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It’s the best time of year: the fantasy football playoffs.

If your league hasn’t yet had its trade deadline, or simply doesn’t have one, it’s the perfect time to make some last-minute moves. Even if you aren’t a team in the playoffs, finding undervalued pieces for 2024 can set you up for major success next season.

Either way, enjoy this week’s dynasty rankings.

Week 15 Dynasty Rankings

Quarterback Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: 3+ Premium First-Round Picks

Tier Two

Value Estimation: 3+ First-Round Picks

Tier Three

Value Estimation: 2+ First-Round Picks

Tier Four 

Value Estimation: Early First-Round Pick

Tier Five

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

Tier Six

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

Tier Seven

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

Tier Eight

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Tier Nine

Value Estimation: Fourth-Round Pick

Big QB Movers

Justin Fields — 15th (previously 17th)

Justin Fields was one of the worst passers in the league during his first two seasons, failing to post even 12.0 passing points per game in either season. This season, while Fields still isn’t one of the better passers in the league, he has at least shown himself to be a capable one. He’s currently posting a career-high 15.4 passing points per game on the backing of 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt and a 5.1 percent touchdown rate.

What this has done is make it more likely that Fields will garner a starting gig in 2024, even if it’s not with the Chicago Bears. This would allow him to continue putting up high-end rushing production, likely leading to back end QB1 production again.

Jake Browning — 28th (Previously 31st)

Jake Browning has now started three games since Joe Burrow went down, and Browning is averaging 23.1 points per game in them. It clearly helps that he's surrounded by weapons such as Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but that shouldn’t diminish the strong peripherals Browning has been able to put up. In a very small sample, he’s holding an adjusted yards per attempt of 9.2, which would only trail Brock Purdy this season.

He’s also throwing touchdowns at a solid 4.9 percent rate. Again, it’s a small sample, and he’s a fourth-year undrafted free agent who hasn’t shown us anything before. But he is at least worth monitoring in the following weeks.

Running Back Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: 2+ First-Round Picks

Tier Two

Value Estimation: Early First-Round Pick

Tier Three

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

Tier Four

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

Tier Five

Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick

Tier Six

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

Tier Seven

Value Estimation: Late Second-Round Pick

Tier Eight

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Big RB Movers

Rachaad White — 12th (previously 15th)

Rachaad White is currently the RB9 on the season with 15.6 points per game through the first 14 weeks. He’s doing this by being one of the best receiving backs in the league. In fact, he’s one of just five running backs posting at least a 12 percent target share and 0.90 yard per team pass attempt, joining: Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Austin Ekeler and Breece Hall.

While White hasn’t been efficient as a rusher, he’s still just one of just eight running backs handling at least 60 percent of the carries. In the world of fantasy football, volume still reigns king. Even if, further down the road, White were to lose carries to a more efficient rusher, his strong receiving ability should give him a high production floor.

Kenneth Walker III — 15th (previously 12th)

Kenneth Walker III has never been a strong, or even adequate, receiver out of the backfield. In his rookie season, he posted just a 6.9 percent target share, which actually bested his collegiate career-high (which was just 4.3 percent). To be productive with that level of receiving work, you have to be a very high-volume rusher with strong efficiency, and that just hasn’t been the case this season for Walker.

He may be handling the sixth-highest carry percentage among all running backs, but his yards per team rush attempt rank 13th. Perhaps even scarier, and it could be due to his return from injury, he was out-carried by Zach Charbonnet this week. The path to elite production for Walker is a very narrow one.

Austin Ekeler — 17th (previously 14th)

Not only has Austin Ekeler’s rushing efficiency been abysmal this season, he just lost his quarterback who had the Los Angeles Chargers top 12 in passing yards and passing touchdowns for the remainder of the season. For a running back who’s getting nearly half of his production as a receiver out of the backfield, this is a major blow.

While you still shouldn’t expect a complete fall-off in production over the rest of the season, he’s clearly headed toward his lowest point-per-game season since his second year in the league. Combine that with the fact that he’ll be 29 years old by the time the 2024 season starts and Ekeler is trending in the wrong direction.

Wide Receiver Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: 3 First-Round Picks

Tier Two

Value Estimation: 2 First-Round Picks

Tier Three

Value Estimation: Early First-Round Pick

Tier Four

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

Tier Five

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

Tier Six

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

Tier Seven

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Big WR Movers

DJ Moore — 13th (previously 18th)

As funny as it is, the best quarterback that DJ Moore has played with since his rookie year is Fields. While Fields isn’t a world beater as a passer, posting just 15.4 passing points per game, Moore has still been able to produce a career high 17.8 points per game through the first 14 weeks.

He’s doing this on some of the league’s best peripherals — a 25.9 percent target share and 2.69 yards per team pass attempt on an average depth of target of 11.7. But despite being 27 years old when the 2024 season starts, we should only expect his value to increase over the offseason because the Bears seem positioned to draft Caleb Williams.

Drake London — 20th (previously 24th)

Drake London became just the fourth wide receiver this season to score at least 28 fantasy points in a week without scoring a touchdown, which has become a far too common theme in the Atlanta Falcons' offense. While it’s been a disappointing year for London, it’s nearly impossible for any receiver in an offense that’s posting a negative 9.9 passing rate over expected to have strong production. For reference, the next closest team to Atlanta in passing rate over expected is the Cleveland Browns at negative 5.8 percent.

London posted some of the best peripherals we’ve seen from a rookie receiver, and he is still posting strong peripherals this season. But without an offensive philosophy change, it’s hard to achieve elite production.

Rashee Rice — 29th (previously 39th)

There are still some flags in Rashee Rice’s profile — such as his average depth of target of just 4.9 — but what we’ve seen from him when on the field has been quite impressive. Rice has been able to post 12.2 points per game despite having just 50.9 percent route participation. For reference, that’s the highest points per game in the league of any wide receiver with less than 70 percent route participation.

He’s been able to accomplish this thanks to a very strong 26.6 percent target rate and 2.35 yards per route run. While there is still that flag in his profile, there are tons of data points that suggest Rice is a quite good player. He's likely a player you don’t want to be too low on because he's in a Patrick Mahomes–led offense.

Tight End Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

Tier Two

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

Tier Three

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

Tier Four

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Big TE Mover

Evan Engram — Ninth (previously 11th)

After a whopping 38-fantasy-point performance in Week 14, Evan Engram is now up to TE3 on the season with 16.2 points per game. This wouldn’t even be Engram’s highest scoring season; he’s always been a solid target earner at the tight end position.

This would be his fourth season with at least a 20 percent target share, and his 22.1 percent target share in 2023 is the third-highest among all tight ends — only trailing Travis Kelce and T.J. Hockenson. Attached to a Trevor Lawrence–led offense that is now without Christian Kirk, Engram has massive upside heading into the fantasy playoffs.

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Ian Miller

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Ian Miller attended Washington State University, where most of the time he was building fantasy football models when he should’ve been paying attention to lectures. That’s where he first started building his process that he continue to grow today. It’s a process that gives probability of success and range of outcomes for recruits all the way to ten year NFL veterans. It’s something Ian not only shares with the readers, but also uses in his personal fantasy leagues.