Betting
12/15/23
6 min read
2023 NFL Week 15 Player Prop Bets: Smash This James Conner Rushing Bet
Each week, more than half a dozen analysts from The 33rd Team will discuss prop betting strategy behind the scenes. This article will encompass all the player prop bets the team believes are strong plays for that week.
The fastest way to access all our weekly player prop bets is in our FREE Discord via the prop-bets channel.
Follow the team of prop bettors behind this weekly article on Twitter:
William S. (Dr. Profit)
Patrick H. (TackleBoxProps)
We’ll link the picks articles here from Racz (Underdog), too. Also, look for betting picks videos from Tanner Kern and an article from Samantha Previte that may have another betting pick.
TOP WEEK 15 PLAYER PROPS
Jerome Ford OVER 14.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
Jerome Ford has at least three receptions and 31 receiving yards in both games playing with Joe Flacco, an immobile quarterback. The Bears have allowed the most receiving yards per game to running backs this year. Even if we only look at the past four games, since the Bears' defense is ascending, they still allow the ninth-most receiving yards per game to RBs.
Bet by: Larky
Lamar Jackson OVER 215.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
The Jaguars have given up over 300 passing yards in their last three games. C.J. Stroud had no problem in this spot, but neither did Jake Browning or Joe Flacco. Lamar Jackson is not a voluminous passer and never has been. But he beat this number against the Jaguars last year. And much like last week against the Rams, this is another high-ceiling spot against a below average pass defense, with a QB on the other side that can push the score.
Bet by: Reynolds
Matthew Stafford OVER 265.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
The Commanders have allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for 66 more yards than their season-long average, and they are the No. 1 pass defense to target. Matthew Stafford has averaged 255 passing yards per game, and adding 61 to that number gives us 321 yards. We also like Stafford to reach 300 passing yards at +210 odds on Bet365 sportsbook (implied chance of hitting for +210 is under 33 percent). If you can get anything close to +200 for him to throw for 300 yards, we recommend it.
Bet by: Larky, Reynolds
James Conner OVER 51.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
James Conner has beaten this number in seven of his nine games. He had 52 rushing yards on 11 carries earlier in the year against the 49ers in a blowout. The 49ers defense is banged up, their interior in particular. When Arizona has surged against quality opponents, it’s been driven by their offensive line — remember that Week 3 upset against Dallas.
Bet by: Reynolds
David Montgomery OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
This is already up to 69.5 yards on FanDuel. David Montgomery is over in four of his past five games, and overall, he’s 8-2 to the over. Denver allows 5.5 yards per carry and 124 rushing yards per game to RBs - both are the highest marks in the NFL. The Lions are also 4.5-point favorites against the Broncos, so that game script will most likely be in favor of Montgomery rather than Jahmyr Gibbs.
Bet by: Larky
Jayden Reed OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings
Jayden Reed had 10 targets against the Giants last week, with Christian Watson sidelined. Generally speaking, you throw against Tampa Bay. If Watson is out again, Reed is the most relevant pass-catching talent Green Bay has by a mile. I’m also a regression bettor, and Reed’s yards per reception over his last three games have been absurdly low, and he somehow only managed 27 yards on eight receptions last week.
Bet by: Reynolds
Breece Hall OVER 4.5 Receptions
Best Odds: +120 on DraftKings
Breece Hall has been over this number in his past four games, averaging 6.5 receptions per game in that span. He’s been over in six of his past eight games, a stretch where his rushing has cratered. He’s had 50 or fewer rushing yards in his past eight, and the Jets run game is completely broken. They still want to get Hall his touches each week, and they’re 9.5-point underdogs to the Dolphins. We anticipate more check downs to Hall in Week 15.
Bet by: Larky
T.J. Hockenson OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on BetMGM
The Bengals' defense has given up the most receptions and receiving yards to tight ends so far this season. The matchup is ideal, but the unknown here is his QB. Nick Mullens is starting for the first time this season. In his brief appearance last week after Dobbs was benched, T.J. Hockenson saw a 33 percent target share with Mullens and led the team with 45 receiving yards.
Justin Jefferson is expected to play, but I don't think that is a negative for Hockenson. If anything, I think it is a boost because he makes this offense significantly better, which means the offense will be on the field more, and there will be more opportunities for Hockenson.
I would play this line up to 60 receiving yards, and if you play on PrizePicks, I have some interest in the 79.5 alt line.
Bet by: Brian O’Connell
Tyler Boyd OVER 3.5 Receptions
Best Odds: +140 on Bet 365, also 3.0 on Underdog Fantasy
This line is heavily favored to the under, but I think this over is a huge value. The Vikings' defense has been terrorizing QBs recently, but there has been one way to unlock the defense: the slot. The Vikings give up the second-most slot receptions in the league, and a few teams have hammered to slot with success. In Week 4, the Chargers passed 24 times to the slot, and then in Week 6, the Chiefs had 19 targets to the slot.
Tyler Boyd has shown the ability to pop in good matchups and is above this line in seven of 13 games this season, so it's not like four receptions is a crazy high line for him. Plus, Browning has looked like a serviceable quarterback, so that is not a reason to fade this line.
I would not play this line any higher if it moves.
Bet by: Brian O’Connell
Ezekiel Elliott OVER 19.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings
Ezekiel Elliott has fully stepped into the receiving back role for the Patriots. Last week, he had a 78 percent route participation, which was his highest of the season. He converted that route participation to eight targets, seven receptions for 71 yards, and a touchdown.
The Chiefs' defense is very good, but they have been exploited a few times by receiving running backs. Last week, James Cook had five receptions for 83 yards against this KC defense. Considering the volume Elliott should see, this line is too low.
I think this line will move into the mid-20s, so I would play this now while you can.
Bet by: Brian O’Connell
Jason Sanders OVER 1.5 Field Goals Made
Best Odds: +105 on DraftKings
One of the most consistent systems in NFL betting this season have been targeting kickers against the New York Jets, who have made their defensive identity clear; they are not immortal but they step it up in the red zone.
This season, 11 kickers have already attempted at least two field goals against the Jets with Wil Lutz (2-2), Younghoe Koo (2-2), Harrison Butker (3-3), Daniel Carlson (3-3), Jason Sanders (2-2), Tyler Bass (7-7), Cameron Dicker (2-2), Chad Ryland (2-4), and Brandon Aubrey (5-5) all making at least two.
Although Jason Sanders has attempted 2+ field goals in only five of his 13 games so far this season, some of the misses included games where he kicked 4, 6, or 10 extra points. Expect regression to hit against a potent Jets defense, giving this plus-money prop strong value.
Bet by: Ahaan Rungta
Alvin Kamara OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
The New Orleans Saints passing attack is far from trustworthy with Derek Carr at the helm and in Week 15, we expect a heavy reliance on Alvin Kamara. Chris Olave and Kendre Miller were out of practice on Thursday and Rashid Shaheed and Jamaal Williams both limited. Regardless, since Williams’ return, Kamara has still been the alpha in the New Orleans backfield, averaging 13.3 carries per game. However, we could clear this line with even less opportunity than that against a Giants defense that ranks No. 29 in run stop win rate and No. 29 in rush EPA per play allowed. It has been even worse on the road for the defense of the men in blue.
James Conner (106), Christian McCaffrey (85), James Cook (71), Josh Jacobs (98), Tony Pollard (55), Brian Robinson (73), and De’Von Achane (151) and Raheem Mostert (65) in the same game all cleared this line as home running backs against the Giants. A rare positive game script for the Saints as 5.5-point favorites should only help with a run-heavy offenses as well.
This number was given out on the Player Prop Happy Hour and has since moved; the over is playable up to 59.5.
Bet by: Ahaan Rungta
Zay Jones UNDER 42.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -102 on FanDuel
We’re headed to Sunday Night Football in an AFC battle of two teams missing key players. The Ravens defense has been elite all season and they rank No. 10 in pressure rate, No. 13 in pass rush win rate and No. 2 in PFF coverage grade. That is bad news for Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence who has already struggled all season long against pressure and is now fighting an ankle injury.
In Week 14, Zay Jones saw a season-high and team-high 14 targets but still only converted that into five receptions for 29 yards; Jacksonville has to realize that their path to a competent offense lies in the hands of Travis Etienne, Calvin Ridley, and Evan Engram, not the role player who struggles to win on the outside. Jones already ranks No. 82 among wide receivers in average depth of target and Baltimore has allowed the lowest yards per reception opposing wide receivers. We have Jones projected about 10 yards below this number and the under is playable down to 39.5.
Bet by: Ahaan Rungta
Elandon Roberts (PIT) OVER 5.5 tackles + assists
Best odds: -121 on Caesars
Elandon Roberts has gone over this total in eight out of 13 games this season. He had been a rotational player early on in the season but has stepped into a full-time role with Cole Holcomb's injury. Since stepping into that role, he has gone over this number in four of five games, with his only under being a game in which he left injured after just 15 snaps.
The Indianapolis Colts have allowed the fifth most tackles to linebackers this year at 18.2 per game and have allowed 22 linebackers to go over this number through 13 games. The Indianapolis stat crew has given out the second-most assists and second-most total tackles to road teams this year. My model has this going over around 82 percent of the time. I am playing this to win two units.
Note: This line has since moved to 6.5 and juiced pretty heavily. I am OK with taking it at 6.5 -130 on ESPN bet but with reduced risk.
Bet by: Patrick H.
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