Betting
12/22/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 16 Betting Preview: Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers
Ravens (11-3) at 49ers (11-3)
Spread: 49ers -5.5
Total: 47
Weather: No current concerns
The Line Report
The spread for this contest has moved from 49ers -5 to 49ers -5.5. The total has moved from 45.5 to 47 points.
49ers Offense vs. Ravens Defense
The San Francisco 49ers score 30.4 points per game, which is third-best in the league. Brock Purdy is the current MVP favorite, with 29 passing touchdowns to seven interceptions. Purdy’s offense is second in passing yards per game. The Ravens are allowing 16.1 points per game, which is the best in the league.
Purdy has the league’s best supporting cast, which includes one of the better wide receiver duos in Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. Aiyuk leads the team in receptions (59), receiving yards (1,090), target share (25.3 percent) and touchdowns (6).
Aiyuk has five 100-yard games this season, but he’s been held to 50 or less in three of his last four. Samuel is third on the team in receptions (49) and receiving yards (787). He’s tied for the team lead with six receiving touchdowns, but he’s added five more on the ground.
Over the past three games, Samuel has exceeded 100 receiving yards twice and scored seven touchdowns during that span. The Baltimore Ravens allow the 10th-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers.
Dynamic tight end George Kittle is second on the team in receptions (55) and receiving yards (865), and he’s tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns with six. Kittle’s 20.3 percent target share is third on the team. Baltimore is giving up the eighth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends.
Christian McCaffrey leads the league in rushing yards (1,292), and he leads all running backs with 509 receiving yards. The Ravens are giving up the 12th-fewest rushing yards and the 10th-fewest receiving yards to running backs.
Ravens Offense vs. 49ers Defense
The Ravens are scoring 27.4 points per game, which is fourth-best in the league. Lamar Jackson leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards by a considerable margin, but he’s 15th in the league in passing yards. The 49ers are giving up 16.7 points per game, which is second-best in the league.
Baltimore has the league’s most productive running game, primarily because of Jackson, who leads the team with 741 rushing yards. Gus Edwards is Baltimore’s primary running back with 663 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. The 49ers allow the second-fewest rushing yards to running backs. San Francisco held Jalen Hurts to 20 rushing yards in Week 13.
Zay Flowers leads the Ravens in receptions (65), receiving yards (680) and target share (23.4 percent). Flowers had been held to 25 receiving yards or less in four of his last seven games. Odell Beckham Jr. has 519 receiving yards on the season, but he’s had over 95 in two of his previous four games. Beckham has exceeded 50 yards receiving in only one other game this season. San Francisco is giving up the 16th-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
Isaiah Likely has started three games since Mark Andrews’ injury in Week 12. Likely has at least six targets in each of those contests, with at least 70 receiving yards in two of those matchups. The 49ers give up the 19th-most receiving yards to tight ends.
What You’re Betting On
The 49ers are the best, most complete team in the league. They dominate teams in every phase regularly. If you’re betting on San Francisco, you are building that bet around the 49ers having a better roster than Baltimore.
You need Purdy to continue playing with MVP-caliber efficiency against the league’s stingiest defense in Baltimore. You also need the 49ers’ defensive front to contain Jackson. San Francisco has the tools to win this game with distance, but the Ravens make few mistakes.
If you’re betting on the Ravens, you build that bet around two core concepts. The first is that the Ravens force Purdy into a few mistakes. The second is that Jackson elevates his offense against a more talented roster in San Francisco. Baltimore wins a lot of games through consistency. They’ll need more than that to knock off the 49ers.
Score Prediction: 49ers 24, Ravens 16
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 40-35
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 26-25
