Fantasy
12/26/23
7 min read
2023 NFL Week 16 High-Value Touch Report: Rushing and Receiving Data
Hope you all enjoyed the holiday weekend and survived into the fantasy finals. We’ll review the team-level data of leaders in goal-to-go (GTG) drives in Weeks 10-16, including the rush and pass rates with the touchdown percentages.
Among the top 12 teams, the Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins struggle to score touchdowns in GTG situations. The Los Angeles Rams have led the league since Week 10 with the most rush attempts in GTG opportunities. That bodes well for Kyren Williams and the Rams’ skill players heading into the fantasy football finals.
Below, we see the player leaders in GTG opportunities (rushes and targets) since Week 10, including their touchdown rates. Using the conditional formatting, Williams, Bijan Robinson, Zach Charbonnet, Zack Moss and James Conner seem due for touchdown regression. However, Charbonnet and Moss likely won’t get there given their team situations.
Below, we’ll examine red zone GTG touches and opportunities. The context for these touches is important, so we’ll consider the potential game script that led to the usage. This information helps identify which players might be on the verge of scoring more touchdowns and fantasy points — and which players aren’t.
Given the small sample size, we sometimes find that players don’t regress quickly or that the data becomes more noisy than meaningful. The information will be broken down by red zone and GTG rushing and receiving data to find usage patterns and expected fantasy points.
Red Zone Rushing
On Saturday, the Buffalo Bills elevated Leonard Fournette to the active roster. Fournette played 16.2 percent of the offensive snaps compared with James Cook's 73.1 percent. Fournette bested Cook in redzone rushing attempts (four to two).
Notably, Fournette earned a red zone role in his first active game. The visual below shows the Week 16 red zone rushing data.
Josh Allen also took three red zone carries, with two rushing scores. There's a chance Fournette could have taken in a short-yardage touchdown instead of Allen. Keep tabs on Cook because he fumbled the ball twice and lost it once, meaning we could see more of Fournette moving forward.
On Thursday against the New Orleans Saints, the Rams' Williams dominated with nine red zone rushing attempts, including four coming in GTG situations. Williams entered Week 16 ranking second in expected points per game (EP/G), suggesting an elite role similar to Christian McCaffrey, as seen in the chart below.
The Rams remain a consolidated offense with Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and Demarcus Robinson as their WR3.
The Green Bay Packers faced a Carolina Panthers team that ranked fifth-best in defensive rush success rate and 22nd in PPR/G since Week 10. Aaron Jones had eight red zone carries in Week 16 and put up a season-high 127 rushing yards. In his previous three games, he totaled 102 rushing yards.
Jones accounted for 78.4 percent of the team's rushing yards. The Packers played with a positive game script heading into the second half until the Panthers overcame a 13-point deficit to tie the game at 30 with four minutes left. We'll see if Green Bay stays balanced with Jayden Reed and Christian Watson injured. However, it's a positive sign toward Jones giving us the week-winning upside.
Javonte Williams and Rachaad White garnered seven red zone rushing attempts — Williams tied for the weekly lead of four. We'll discuss Williams more in the GTG section. However, White continues to struggle on the ground and makes up for it via the receiving game.
His 20 percent target share in Week 16 ranks seventh among running backs. After nine straight games with a double-digit target share in Weeks 2-11, White has only two contests with a share over 10 percent in the past five weeks, as pictured in the scatter plot above. Heading into Week 16, White ranked 10th in EP/G, suggesting an RB1 role regardless of the rushing inefficiencies.
Red Zone Receiving
Kupp and Amari Cooper tied with four red zone targets in Week 16. Kupp led the Rams in targets with 12 for a 35.3 percent target share, but Nacua stole the show. He reeled in nine receptions for 164 receiving yards and one touchdown on 11 targets (32.3 percent).
The visual above shows the red zone target leaders since Week 10. Kupp has 12 red zone targets (No. 4), while Robinson and Nacua tied with eight. We're dealing with small samples each week, so Kupp could have easily scored and boosted his fantasy scoring in Week 16, given his role.
Though Kupp posted a solid day, Cooper blasted the home and road splits for a week-winning performance of 11 receptions, 265 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Only four players scored 40 or more PPR in a single game in 2023, including Cooper (40.5), De'Von Achane (47.3), McCaffrey (41.7) and DJ Moore (41).
On the road before Week 16, Cooper averaged 10.5 PPR, eight targets and 58.3 receiving yards. At home, Cooper averaged 14.6 PPR, eight targets and 79.5 receiving yards.
Cooper falls into a similar bucket to Calvin Ridley, because the latter sometimes underdelivers based on expectations. Ridley, Colby Parkinson and Garrett Wilson had three red zone targets in Week 16, while Ridley scored two, and Parkinson finished with one touchdown.
The top three in red zone targets since Week 10 include CeeDee Lamb (17), Ridley (15) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (14). Ridley was due to score, especially against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' weaker pass defense. And he scored two touchdowns in Week 16. The data supported Josh Larky's take on Ridley smashing in Week 16.
Goal-to-Go Rushing
The Broncos trailed the New England Patriots for most of their thrilling Sunday night contest. Williams punched in a short score on his four GTG rush attempts but faced one of the most challenging rush defenses.
In Weeks 10-16, the Patriots' defense ranked second in defensive rush success rate, second in yards before contact per attempt and fifth in explosive rush rate allowed (percentage of rushes of 12 or more yards), as seen below.
If fantasy managers started Williams, they lucked out because he struggled besides the short-yardage touchdown.
In Weeks 10-15, Devin Singletary, Williams and Travis Etienne seemed due for touchdown regression. Williams ranked tied for fifth with 113 opportunities (113) with the third-lowest touchdown rate per opportunity at 1.8 percent among 87 qualified running backs, wide receivers and tight ends.
Due to the lack of touchdowns, Williams remains one of the most inefficient running backs. He averages -1.9 fantasy points over expectation (FPOE/G), ranking 127th and having 12.6 EP/G (No. 22) before Week 16.
Jonathan Taylor, A.J. Dillon, David Montgomery and Breece Hall had three GTG rush attempts, scoring one touchdown each. Bijan Robinson had three GTG carries but failed to score. Dillon stole a short-yardage touchdown from Jones, but we can't complain about the dominant rushing role for Jones.
In Weeks 10-15, the Jets ranked 23rd with five GTG drives, so Hall's opportunities remained limited and New York's offense. However, in Week 16, the Jets had five GTG drives, matching the total from the previous six games.
Goal-to-Go Receiving
The only two pass catchers with two GTG targets in Week 16 and a touchdown were Ridley and Jason Brownlee (who?). Interestingly, three Jets receivers had two GTG opportunities: Tyler Conklin, Wilson and Brownlee.
There have been four games where Hall and Wilson earned eight targets each, showing glimpses of the team using its best skill players most often. That's an ideal situation against a middle-of-the-pack matchup for running backs and receivers in Week 17 against the Cleveland Browns.
Monday, the Kansas City Chiefs trailed the Las Vegas Raiders for most of the game and lost. The Raiders scored on back-to-back defensive touchdowns, causing the Chiefs' offense to struggle. Against Las Vegas, Kansas City ran 74 plays compared with 67 in Weeks 10-15, tied for seventh.
We provide that context because Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice had two GTG targets in Week 16 — neither scored.
The team leaders in GTG targets since Week 10 are Clyde Edwards-Helaire (four) and Justin Watson (three). The Chiefs have 14 GTG drives since Week 10, tied for fourth.
Though Kansas City has scoring opportunities, the Chiefs are middling to below-average on offense since Week 10. They average -3.37 Offensive Total EPA/G (No. 19), 5.2 yards per play (No. 19) and 20.8 offensive points scored per game (No. 15), as seen in the visual above.
Give credit to the Raiders' defense. It has ranked fifth in Defensive Total EPA/G (9.88), fourth in rush defensive success rate (68.9 percent) and seventh in pass defensive success (68.1 percent) since Week 10.
