Fantasy
12/30/23
8 min read
2023 NFL Week 17 DFS Main Slate Tournament Analysis
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership and Lineup Construction.
Below, we will look at some of the double stacks, single stacks and mini stacks I will take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
If you haven’t already, check out the Cover 5 show on YouTube.
WEEK 17 DFS SLATE ANALYSIS
Double Stacks
- Stack: QB C.J. Stroud WR Nico Collins WR Noah Brown
- Runback: WR Treylon Burks
The Tennessee Titans have run a lot of Cover 4 in recent weeks, and this is another spot where I’d expect them to run it at a high rate against the Texans. This time, they face C.J. Stroud, who has averaged more than nine yards per attempt against this look. The loss of Tank Dell hurts, but his role will be filled by Noah Brown and Nico Collins, who will continue to get his normal looks.
The Texans threw out of Twin Formations in their first matchup on more than 40 percent of attempts. Stroud was not the quarterback for these formations, but if they replicate that, Collins and Brown have been his top targets out of this look.
The runback in this game doesn’t need to be forced, but the salary save for Treylon Burks shouldn’t be overlooked. Burks has been a full-time route runner, with over 45 percent of his routes as deep routes. This game needs a spark for Stroud to start passing at a high rate, and Burks is that spark.
- Stack: QB Derek Carr WR Chris Olave WR Rashid Shaheed
- Runback: RB Rachaad White
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are blitzing without getting pressure at a consistent rate. When he has been blitzed and not pressured, Derek Carr averaged 8.5 yards per passing attempt, completing 75 percent of his passes with a 6-1 TD/INT ratio.
The Buccaneers will give them a lot of Single High Coverage looks while the game is competitive. Chris Olave has a 32 percent target per route run rate, one of the highest in the NFL. Rashid Shaheed is Carr's spark, and how he produces more than 300 yards passing and multiple touchdowns. On a slate of this size, you will need that from Carr to produce a GPP winning score.
The New Orleans Saints' run defense has not been good recently, and the usage of Rachaad White is impossible to ignore in this game. The idea with this runback is the Buccaneers create big plays early and take the lead through White touchdowns, and then you have the negative game script for the Carr stack. White and Olave are the way I would turn this game into a mini stack because the field is playing Shaheed at a high rate this weekend.
- Stack: QB Tyrod Taylor WR Darius Slayton WR Jalin Hyatt
- Runback: RB Kyren Williams
The primary motivation for opting for Tyrod Taylor stacks lies in the ability to afford premium players such as Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams. The Los Angeles Rams have struggled significantly in defending the deep ball, and Taylor frequently targets this weakness, often with five or more rushing attempts in the last two games.
The primary recipients of these targets are Jalin Hyatt and Darius Slayton, commanding more than 50 percent of them. Tyrod Taylor's need for explosive plays down the field suggests that the path lies through utilizing Slayton and Hyatt. While Darren Waller was considered for this build, preference was given to lineups featuring Kelce at the tight-end position.
To complete the lineup, the Rams can be paired with any of several options: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp or Williams. The choice for Williams is influenced by the Rams' tendency to run the ball when in a substantial lead, with Williams receiving usage akin to Todd Gurley's in the past. Additionally, the Giants rank among the NFL's weakest teams in defending running backs.
Single Stacks
- Stack: QB Lamar Jackson WR Rashod Bateman
- Runback: WR Tyreek Hill
The Miami Dolphins will attempt to force Lamar Jackson to stay in the pocket and throw the football. This presents Jackson with a big passing day because they will have to take someone out of their zone coverage scheme and force him to spy on Jackson.
If Jackson throws for 300 yards, that presents a massive opportunity for him to produce a high-level GPP score because he will still find ways to run. Rashod Bateman was capable of beating Xavien Howard in coverage on numerous occasions last season, and he’s the way you attack this Dolphins secondary right now.
Over the last two seasons without Jaylen Waddle on the field, Tyreek Hill has had a 37.6 percent target share and averaged 4.99 yards per route run. Hill is how this game shoots out and is the path for the Miami Dolphins to put up points to push a Jackson stack. I also don’t mind taking a chance on De’Von Achane or Raheem Mostert without Waddle because they become the two most important weapons for Mike McDaniel.
Mini-Stacks
- Carolina at Jacksonville
- WR DJ Chark Jr. RB Travis Etienne
DJ Chark Jr. is the best weapon for Bryce Young right now, and he’s getting it done down the field. The Jacksonville Jaguars have had issues defending the deep ball down the sidelines this season, and Chark has been making those plays for Young.
The Carolina Panthers' run defense has not been good this year, and Travis Etienne is one of the true workhorse running backs. C.J. Beathard, playing quarterback, will rely heavily on Etienne and Evan Engram. I worry for Calvin Ridley, who needs to be playing in rhythm with his quarterback.
- Cincinnati at Kanas City
- RB Joe Mixon TE Travis Kelce
The Kansas City Chiefs' defensive line has faced recent struggles, largely due to subpar linebacker play. Joe Mixon is crucial in providing comfort for Jake Browning and has excelled in the red zone. Despite expectations of limited playing time this weekend, I anticipate a productive day for Mixon, especially if Zamir White can run for over 140 yards in Kansas City.
On the defensive end, the Cincinnati Bengals have shown vulnerabilities in defending tight ends, making Travis Kelce poised to outscore every other tight end by a significant margin. This advantage doesn't seem as obvious in other positions.
- Arizona at Philadelphia
- TE Trey McBride RB D’Andre Swift
The Philadelphia Eagles have endured a season of struggles in their secondary, setting the stage for the Arizona Cardinals to exploit this vulnerability due to the anticipated game script. Notably, the Eagles have increasingly adopted defensive formations with two safeties deep, a situation where Trey McBride thrives, especially with the dynamic Kyler Murray at QB.
However, the Eagles hold a considerable advantage in the trenches with their offensive line, emphasizing the need to establish a potent running game led by D'Andre Swift. The team's record underscores the importance of Swift's performance; they stand at 1-3 when he finishes with under 40 yards rushing and an impressive 6-1 when he surpasses 70 yards.
On the other hand, the Cardinals have struggled in eight games against opposing running backs who breached the 100-yard rushing mark.
One-Offs
- RB Christian McCaffrey/ WR Deebo Samuel
The Washington Commanders boast the NFL's weakest defense, while the San Francisco 49ers' offense thrives. Christian McCaffrey has surpassed 100 rushing yards in four of the last five games without exceeding 20 rushing attempts. Additionally, he has seen four or more targets in seven of the last eight games.
In the past two weeks, the Commanders yielded more than 150 rushing yards to Kyren Williams and more than 90 to Breece Hall. Notably, they struggle against larger wide receivers and defending yards after the catch, allowing two players to surpass 100 yards in this category—making them the only team to do so this season.
- WR DJ Moore
The Atlanta Falcons will put A.J. Terrell on an island against DJ Moore and play a lot of Cover 1 with a spy on Justin Fields. Against Cover 1, Moore averages almost six yards per route run with fields. The Falcons will likely bracket him everywhere he goes, but with the way Fields can extend plays it won’t matter.
Player Pool
| Pos | Name | Team | OPP | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| QB | Lamar Jackson | BAL | MIA | $7,700 | $7,900 |
| QB | C.J. Stroud | HOU | TEN | $7,100 | $7,800 |
| QB | Derek Carr | NO | TB | $5,500 | $7,000 |
| QB | Tyrod Taylor | NYG | LA | $4,600 | $6,700 |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey | SF | WAS | $9,600 | $11,000 |
| RB | Kyren Williams | LA | NYG | $8,300 | $9,400 |
| RB | Rachaad White | TB | NO | $7,600 | $7,900 |
| RB | Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX | CAR | $7,200 | $8,600 |
| RB | Raheem Mostert | MIA | BAL | $7,000 | $7,700 |
| RB | De'Von Achane | MIA | BAL | $6,700 | $6,900 |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | ATL | CHI | $6,600 | $7,100 |
| RB | D'Andre Swift | PHI | ARI | $6,500 | $7,600 |
| RB | Joe Mixon | CIN | KC | $6,400 | $7,300 |
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | SEA | PIT | $6,100 | $7,000 |
| RB | Javonte Williams | DEN | LAC | $5,600 | $6,500 |
| RB | Devin Singletary | HOU | TEN | $5,600 | $6,600 |
| RB | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | CIN | $5,300 | $6,500 |
| RB | Zamir White | LV | IND | $5,100 | $6,100 |
| WR | Tyreek Hill | MIA | BAL | $9,300 | $9,800 |
| WR | A.J. Brown | PHI | ARI | $8,600 | $8,500 |
| WR | Cooper Kupp | LA | NYG | $8,100 | $8,000 |
| WR | Puka Nacua | LA | NYG | $7,900 | $7,900 |
| WR | Mike Evans | TB | NO | $7,800 | $8,700 |
| WR | Deebo Samuel | SF | WAS | $7,700 | $8,800 |
| WR | DeVonta Smith | PHI | ARI | $7,300 | $7,200 |
| WR | Nico Collins | HOU | TEN | $7,200 | $7,300 |
| WR | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WAS | $7,000 | $7,500 |
| WR | Rashee Rice | KC | CIN | $6,900 | $7,400 |
| WR | Chris Olave | NO | TB | $6,800 | $7,400 |
| WR | DJ Moore | CHI | ATL | $6,600 | $7,500 |
| WR | Chris Godwin | TB | NO | $6,100 | $6,700 |
| WR | Zay Flowers | BAL | MIA | $5,600 | $6,300 |
| WR | Jerry Jeudy | DEN | LAC | $5,100 | $6,200 |
| WR | Drake London | ATL | CHI | $5,000 | $6,100 |
| WR | Rashid Shaheed | NO | TB | $4,600 | $6,200 |
| WR | Odell Beckham Jr. | BAL | MIA | $4,500 | $5,800 |
| WR | Greg Dortch | ARI | PHI | $4,200 | $5,200 |
| WR | Wan'Dale Robinson | NYG | LA | $4,000 | $5,600 |
| WR | Rashod Bateman | BAL | MIA | $3,600 | $5,300 |
| WR | DJ Chark Jr. | CAR | JAX | $3,600 | $6,000 |
| WR | Cedrick Wilson Jr. | MIA | BAL | $3,600 | $5,300 |
| WR | Michael Wilson | ARI | PHI | $3,500 | $5,100 |
| WR | Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN | LAC | $3,500 | $5,100 |
| WR | A.T. Perry | NO | TB | $3,500 | $4,900 |
| WR | Darius Slayton | NYG | LA | $3,400 | $5,400 |
| WR | Treylon Burks | TEN | HOU | $3,300 | $5,200 |
| WR | Jalin Hyatt | NYG | LA | $3,200 | $5,200 |
| TE | Travis Kelce | KC | CIN | $7,000 | $7,800 |
| TE | Trey McBride | ARI | PHI | $5,900 | $6,800 |
| TE | Evan Engram | JAX | CAR | $5,700 | $7,000 |
| TE | Dallas Goedert | PHI | ARI | $4,800 | $5,800 |
| TE | Darren Waller | NYG | LA | $4,500 | $5,900 |
| TE | Dalton Schultz | HOU | TEN | $4,300 | $6,200 |
| DST | Chargers | LAC | DEN | $2,900 | $4,000 |
| DST | Broncos | DEN | LAC | $2,900 | $3,700 |
| DST | Ravens | BAL | MIA | $2,800 | $4,100 |
| DST | Panthers | CAR | JAX | $2,700 | $3,400 |
| DST | Giants | NYG | LA | $2,500 | $3,500 |
| DST | Patriots | NE | BUF | $2,300 | $3,200 |
