Fantasy
1/6/24
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 18: Top Underdog Higher, Lower Entries To Consider
We will evaluate the projections available on Underdog Fantasy each week and craft entries that leverage game environments and correlation to maximize value.
WEEK 18 HIGHER/LOWER ENTRIES
Nico Collins HIGHER than 73.5 receiving yards, Zaire Franklin HIGHER than 9.5 tackles and assists and Jonathan Taylor LOWER than 92.5 rushing and receiving yards
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The Houston Texans travel to take on the Indianapolis Colts in a must-win game with playoff implications for both teams. While the game has a spread only slightly favoring the Texans, correlating based on the Texans’ offensive success provides value.
Without Tank Dell and Noah Brown, Nico Collins looks to lead the Texans in targets again. When the Texans’ passing attack succeeds, Collins will have at least 74 receiving yards more often than not. In these games, Zaire Franklin becomes more likely to have tackle opportunities. In the Colts’ seven losses with Franklin healthy, he has recorded at least 11 total tackles in six games.
When Houston does not have a disadvantage in time of possession, touches for Jonathan Taylor become less plentiful. After multiple weeks without backfield competition, Zack Moss returns from a forearm injury, possibly eating into Taylor’s base workload. Additionally, the Texans’ rushing defense ranks first in success rate and third in expected points added (EPA).
T.J. Edwards LOWER than 7.5 tackles and assists, Kyler Gordon LOWER than 4.5 tackles and assists and Jordan Love LOWER than 250.5 passing yards
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Perhaps quietly, the Chicago Bears have developed a strong defense since their Week 13 bye. In the past four games, the Bears’ pass defense ranks second in dropback EPA and fourth in dropback success rate.
On the other side of the ball, the Bears’ defense faces a strong Green Bay Packers’ passing game. This season, the Packers rank sixth in dropback EPA and 12th in dropback success rate. Even against a formidable Packers’ aerial attack, the Bears might be able to limit explosiveness from Jordan Love.
In the Bears’ seven victories, linebacker T.J. Edwards has only recorded at least seven tackles twice. In the Bears’ six victories that Kyler Gordon has played in, he has recorded five or more tackles three times. As the Packers’ offense has fewer completions, both Edwards and Gordon stand to have fewer tackle opportunities.
Bobby Wagner LOWER than 10.5 tackles and assists, James Conner LOWER than 86.5 rushing and receiving yards, Kenneth Walker III HIGHER than 54.5 rushing yards, Krys Barnes HIGHER than 6.0 tackles and assists and Leonard Williams LOWER than 4.5 tackles and assists
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With the Seattle Seahawks vying for a playoff game against the already-eliminated Arizona Cardinals, a game script where the Seahawks take control of the game and dominate the time of possession provides opportunity.
After linebacker Kyzir White went down with a season-ending injury, Krys Barnes has stepped in and played at least 99 percent of the snaps the past two weeks. As a full-time linebacker, a projection of six tackles and assists is too low. Barnes will also have more plays to record tackles as Kenneth Walker III rushes for more yards, as the Seahawks’ offense will ideally rely on their running game when they can sustain long drives.
When the Cardinals are on offense, fewer yards for James Conner correlate with fewer tackle opportunities for the Seahawks’ defense. If the Seahawks force the Cardinals to play from behind, Arizona will abandon the run and reduce Conner’s usage.
The overall play volume for the Arizona offense will decrease when it faces a deficit, as Seattle will attempt to burn as much clock as possible via its rushing game. These factors make linebacker Bobby Wagner and defensive lineman Leonard Williams candidates to have fewer tackle opportunities.
