Analysis
9/23/23
10 min read
2023 NFL Week 3 DFS Main Slate Tournament Analysis
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, including DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, and Lineup Construction.
Below, we will look at some of the double stacks, single stacks, and mini stacks I will be looking to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
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Double Stacks
- Stack: QB Kirk Cousins, WR Jordan Addison, TE T.J. Hockenson
- Runback: RB Joshua Kelley, WR Mike Williams
I'm taking a contrarian approach to what's expected to be the weekend's popular game. My strategy involves stacking players from this matchup, anticipating that Asante Samuel Jr. will contain Justin Jefferson, thereby creating opportunities for big plays from Addison and touchdowns for Hockenson. Hockenson, despite his tight end price tag, is in for strong involvement as the Chargers favor two-high coverages, a scheme in which he's thrived with the Minnesota Vikings.
To complement this chalky strategy, I'm targeting two run-back options. Brian Flores' defensive approach suggests Kelly will have room to run with a strong Los Angeles Chargers' offensive line. Williams is the wide receiver I want because of his price compared to Keenan Allen and how I am targeting other $7,000 wide receivers on DraftKings.
- Stack: QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb, TE Jake Ferguson
- Runback: WR Marquise Brown
Prescott is currently one of the most overlooked quarterbacks on the slate, and it's a missed opportunity, given what he's capable of against a Jonathan Gannon defense. Prescott has a proven track record, averaging an impressive 10 yards per attempt, boasting a 78.4 percent completion rate, and an 11-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the past two years against similar defenses. Moreover, when Prescott was at the helm, former starting tight end Dalton Schultz averaged a remarkable 1.33 touchdowns per game against Gannon-coached defenses.
Currently, the Arizona Cardinals are focused on forcing quick throws and tackling underneath. Still, I believe the slot receiver has the potential to break free deep, and this role could be filled by either Lamb or Brandin Cooks, especially if Cooks is confirmed as good to go.
The absence of Trevon Diggs is a significant loss for the Dallas Cowboys' defense. If you want to balance this game out, Brown becomes a prime target. With his exceptional speed and the Cowboys' tendency to employ man coverage, Brown has the capability to make game-changing plays. While Josh Dobbs may not be the most reliable quarterback, he's shown promise early this season, making Brown an intriguing option for a game stack.
- Stack: QB Geno Smith, WR DK Metcalf, WR Tyler Lockett
- Runback: WR Adam Thielen
The Carolina Panthers' defensive scheme predominantly revolves around Cover 3, and Smith has proven himself as one of the NFL's top passers against this coverage over the past two years. His primary targets in this scheme are consistently Metcalf and Lockett, together amassing over a 50 percent target share during this period. With Jaycee Horn out, Metcalf and Lockett are poised for success against the Panthers' secondary.
As for Thielen, he's set to take center stage in Andy Dalton's passing game. The Seattle Seahawks have predominantly employed zone coverage this season, opting for a less aggressive approach from their cornerbacks, which aligns perfectly with the strengths of the Panthers' wide receivers. With his veteran savvy and knack for exploiting soft spots in the zone, Thielen is well-positioned to thrive as a key playmaker in this matchup.
Single Stacks
- Stack: QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce
The Chicago Bears struggled mightily this week, while the Kansas City Chiefs are eager to regain their offensive groove after two consecutive lackluster outings. This matchup is shaping up to be a Mahomes and Kelce showcase. Given the Chiefs' wide receiver rotation, you may not need to run it back or double-stack with Mahomes, making this a somewhat expensive stack. You'll need to find value in other positions to make it work, so I'd advise against relying heavily on popular, chalky picks when building your lineup alongside these two-star players.
- Stack: QB Lamar Jackson, WR Zay Flowers
- Runback: WR Josh Downs
The best rusher on the Baltimore Ravens right now is Jackson, and we've recently witnessed an increase in designed runs and rushing attempts for him. With some key offensive linemen sidelined, Jackson will likely face more pressure, pushing him to scramble even more. While I'm open to a double-stack with Jackson and Rashod Bateman, my primary focus is on Jackson's rushing production and targeting Flowers as the top wide receiver option.
The Indianapolis Colts' secondary, particularly on the outside, has been susceptible to attacks, and Flowers predominantly lines up there, making him a highly productive choice. It's worth noting that Flowers has been a focal point in the offensive game plan, evident in the schemed-up plays designed to get him the ball.
When Gardner Minshew stepped in last weekend, he showed a strong connection with two key targets, Michael Pittman and Downs. Downs, operating from the slot, is poised for a standout performance, especially considering the Ravens' pass rush could force quicker throws. This season, the Ravens have struggled to defend the slot, further solidifying Downs as an appealing option for this matchup.
Mini-Stacks
- Denver at Miami
- RB Javonte Williams, WR Tyreek Hill
The rationale behind selecting Williams centers on his expected increase in touches as the season progresses. Through two weeks, he's already had 31 touches, which is remarkable considering his injury last season. Facing the Miami Dolphins' vulnerable run defense presents a prime opportunity for Williams to have a breakout game.
With Jaylen Waddle's absence from the lineup, Hill will remain the focal point of the passing game, virtually guaranteeing him a minimum of ten targets. While Waddle did participate in Friday's practice and remains questionable for the game, I still have a favorable outlook on Hill's performance. Even if Waddle plays, Hill's appeal remains high, and his popularity might be lessened, making him an even more attractive option.
- Atlanta at Detroit
- TE Kyle Pitts, RB Jahmyr Gibbs
The Detroit Lions have shown vulnerability to tight ends operating from the slot position this season, precisely where Pitts lines up for the Atlanta Falcons. Pitts is priced attractively, requiring only a modest output to justify his cost, and the tight-end position offers great potential for a top-tier finish. While Bijan Robinson remains an excellent choice, I'm opting for the positional value provided by Pitts and the salary savings that allow for other high-impact picks.
The Falcons have showcased a formidable interior run defense, among the league's best. However, teams have found success attacking their defense on the outside, where Gibbs excels, displaying electrifying off-tackle runs. Although Craig Reynolds will get his share of snaps, Gibbs is emerging as the go-to option in the passing game, and a full week of practice suggests he'll see an uptick in carries, further enhancing his appeal.
- Houston at Jacksonville
- WR Tank Dell, RB Travis Etienne
Dell stepped up into a larger role when Noah Brown was out, and he delivered an impressive performance. He's forged a strong chemistry and trust with quarterback C.J. Stroud, and his ability to separate from the Jacksonville Jaguars' defensive backs will be on display.
As for the Houston Texans' defense, they'll be missing some key starters in their secondary. Calvin Ridley is poised to exploit these vulnerabilities, but I anticipate that DeMeco Ryans will prioritize keeping two safeties deep to protect against big plays. This move should create opportunities for Etienne to establish a ground game. Additionally, the Texans seem vulnerable in the trenches near the goal line, setting the stage for potential scoring opportunities.
One-Offs
- TE Taysom Hill
As we approach the final week before Alvin Kamara's return, it's clear that Kendre Miller and Tony Jones are not the ideal goal-line backs. However, Hill's versatility is set to shine, as he's expected to step into the wildcat quarterback role and make the most of his opportunities. He had nine carries for 75 yards rushing last weekend.
Defenses
- Patriots
The defense against Zach Wilson will be in play every single week. The New England Patriots will get after Wilson and force him to throw the ball.
- Packers
The Green Bay Packers' defense has been really good to begin the year, and Derek Carr has been under pressure quite a bit to begin the year. The coverage scheme of the Packers is also something Carr has struggled with, and if he does in this one, we can expect some turnovers.
- Titans
The Tennessee Titans are my favorite defense on the slate because I believe they can have multiple turnovers and sacks against Deshaun Watson. The Cleveland Browns will not be able to run at all in this game, and Watson has been awful when he has dropped back.
- Saints
This is the first real test for Jordan Love; this is a defense that will play man coverage and force tight window throws. The New Orleans Saints can also get pressure very fast, and it will be a contrarian play.
- Jets
The New York Jets are a chalk defense this week, and it’s for a good reason because the Patriots do not have the weapons to move the ball against them.
- Commanders
A tropical storm is forecasted for this game, setting the stage for a matchup where the Washington Commanders' defensive line is poised to assert dominance over the Buffalo Bills' offensive front.
Player Pool
| Pos | Name | Team | OPP | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| QB | Patrick Mahomes | KC | CHI | $8,300 | $9,200 |
| QB | Lamar Jackson | BAL | IND | $7,700 | $8,200 |
| QB | Kirk Cousins | MIN | LAC | $6,900 | $7,800 |
| QB | Dak Prescott | DAL | ARI | $6,600 | $7,600 |
| QB | Geno Smith | SEA | CAR | $5,700 | $7,200 |
| RB | Tony Pollard | DAL | ARI | $8,000 | $9,400 |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | ATL | DET | $7,800 | $9,000 |
| RB | Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX | HOU | $6,900 | $8,000 |
| RB | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | NYJ | $6,700 | $6,500 |
| RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | ATL | $6,600 | $7,000 |
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | SEA | CAR | $6,200 | $7,600 |
| RB | Miles Sanders | CAR | SEA | $5,700 | $6,700 |
| RB | Javonte Williams | DEN | MIA | $5,500 | $6,100 |
| RB | Joshua Kelley | LAC | MIN | $5,400 | $6,100 |
| RB | Isiah Pacheco | KC | CHI | $5,400 | $5,700 |
| RB | Gus Edwards | BAL | IND | $5,300 | $6,200 |
| RB | Roschon Johnson | CHI | KC | $4,700 | $4,700 |
| RB | Jerick McKinnon | KC | CHI | $4,500 | $5,000 |
| RB | Kendre Miller | NO | GB | $4,300 | $4,600 |
| RB | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | CHI | $4,100 | $4,900 |
| WR | Justin Jefferson | MIN | LAC | $9,300 | $9,700 |
| WR | Tyreek Hill | MIA | DEN | $9,000 | $9,600 |
| WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | ATL | $7,900 | $7,900 |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | ARI | $7,700 | $8,500 |
| WR | Keenan Allen | LAC | MIN | $7,600 | $8,800 |
| WR | Calvin Ridley | JAX | HOU | $7,200 | $7,500 |
| WR | DK Metcalf | SEA | CAR | $6,900 | $7,400 |
| WR | Tyler Lockett | SEA | CAR | $6,400 | $7,300 |
| WR | Michael Pittman Jr. | IND | BAL | $6,200 | $6,700 |
| WR | Mike Williams | LAC | MIN | $6,000 | $7,200 |
| WR | Amari Cooper | CLE | TEN | $5,700 | $6,200 |
| WR | Jordan Addison | MIN | LAC | $5,500 | $6,800 |
| WR | Zay Flowers | BAL | IND | $5,400 | $6,300 |
| WR | Christian Kirk | JAX | HOU | $5,400 | $6,500 |
| WR | Brandin Cooks | DAL | ARI | $5,200 | $6,000 |
| WR | Drake London | ATL | DET | $5,000 | $6,500 |
| WR | Marquise Brown | ARI | DAL | $4,900 | $6,200 |
| WR | Elijah Moore | CLE | TEN | $4,700 | $6,100 |
| WR | Rashod Bateman | BAL | IND | $4,600 | $5,600 |
| WR | Skyy Moore | KC | CHI | $4,400 | $5,600 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | CAR | $4,300 | $5,300 |
| WR | Josh Reynolds | DET | ATL | $4,200 | $7,000 |
| WR | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC | CHI | $4,200 | $5,400 |
| WR | Donovan Peoples-Jones | CLE | TEN | $4,100 | $5,900 |
| WR | K.J. Osborn | MIN | LAC | $4,000 | $5,600 |
| WR | Adam Thielen | CAR | SEA | $3,900 | $5,700 |
| WR | DJ Chark Jr. | CAR | SEA | $3,800 | $5,600 |
| WR | Michael Gallup | DAL | ARI | $3,700 | $5,300 |
| WR | Tank Dell | HOU | JAX | $3,600 | $5,400 |
| WR | Josh Downs | IND | BAL | $3,500 | $5,000 |
| WR | Michael Wilson | ARI | DAL | $3,400 | $4,800 |
| WR | Jonathan Mingo | CAR | SEA | $3,400 | $4,500 |
| WR | Alec Pierce | IND | BAL | $3,400 | $4,100 |
| WR | Dontayvion Wicks | GB | NO | $3,300 | $4,000 |
| WR | Rondale Moore | ARI | DAL | $3,200 | $3,700 |
| WR | Nelson Agholor | BAL | IND | $3,200 | $3,000 |
| TE | Travis Kelce | KC | CHI | $7,200 | $3,000 |
| TE | T.J. Hockenson | MIN | LAC | $6,500 | $3,000 |
| TE | Sam LaPorta | DET | ATL | $4,000 | $3,000 |
| TE | Kyle Pitts | ATL | DET | $3,900 | $3,000 |
| TE | Dalton Schultz | HOU | JAX | $3,700 | $3,000 |
| TE | Jake Ferguson | DAL | ARI | $3,600 | $3,000 |
| TE | Taysom Hill | NO | GB | $3,300 | $3,000 |
| TE | Adam Trautman | DEN | MIA | $3,000 | $3,000 |
| TE | Josh Oliver | MIN | LAC | $2,500 | $3,000 |
| DST | Patriots | NE | NYJ | $3,500 | $3,000 |
| DST | Browns | CLE | TEN | $3,300 | $3,000 |
| DST | Packers | GB | NO | $3,100 | $3,000 |
| DST | Titans | TEN | CLE | $3,000 | $3,000 |
| DST | Saints | NO | GB | $2,900 | $3,000 |
| DST | Jets | NYJ | NE | $2,800 | $3,000 |
| DST | Panthers | CAR | SEA | $2,600 | $3,000 |
| DST | Commanders | WAS | BUF | $2,400 | $3,000 |
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