Analysis
9/30/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 4: Top Underdog Higher, Lower Entries to Consider
We will evaluate the projections available on Underdog Fantasy each week and craft entries that leverage game environments and correlation to maximize value.
Week 4 Higher/Lower Entries
Deshaun Watson LOWER than 1.5 passing touchdowns, Bijan Robinson HIGHER than 65.5 rushing yards and Trevor Lawrence HIGHER than 5.5 passing attempts vs. Desmond Ridder
6x your entry fee on Underdog Fantasy.
If Deshaun Watson plays through his shoulder injury this week, he faces a difficult matchup against the Baltimore Ravens’ defense. Although it's a small sample size, looking at Watson’s performances with the Cleveland Browns supports taking the lower on his passing touchdowns.
In his nine games starting for the Browns, he has only passed for two or more touchdowns in three games. The Browns’ team total of 19.5 also suggests that recording lower than 1.5 passing touchdowns is more likely than not.
The Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Atlanta Falcons in the NFL’s first London game this season. Bijan Robinson has seen his rush attempt share and snap share increase every week. If Robinson sees 80-85 percent of the team’s snaps and nears a 60 percent carry percentage, he should record at least 66 rushing yards around 60 to 65 percent of the time. When Robinson has a successful rushing game, it will likely shift both teams’ tendencies.
As Robinson rushes for more yards, Desmond Ridder becomes increasingly less likely to throw more passing attempts. On the other side of the ball, Trevor Lawrence becomes more likely to attempt more passes as Robinson records more rushing yards.
Jason Sanders HIGHER than 2.5 XP made, Kyzir White HIGHER than 8.0 tackles + assists, Jake Moody HIGHER than 1.5 FG made, Jaylen Waddle HIGHER than 9.55 fantasy points and Tua Tagovailoa HIGHER than 18.85 fantasy points
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This entry optimizes for game environments in the Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills and Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers games. The Dolphins’ potential for yet another offensive spike appears underpriced in Buffalo. In San Francisco, the 49ers should dominate the time of possession.
If the Dolphins produce an offensive spike, it will likely come through Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle. When Waddle produces enough to exceed his fantasy points total, Tua Tagovailoa becomes increasingly likely to surpass his fantasy points total, too. When both Dolphins’ offensive pieces go higher than their statistics, Jason Sanders is more likely than not to make at least three extra points.
If the 49ers field long drives, they will have numerous possessions with the potential to end in successful field goal attempts. When the 49ers drive down the field, LB Kyzir White becomes more likely to make tackles.
Kyzir White HIGHER than 8.0 tackles + assists, Tyreek Hill HIGHER than 14.95 fantasy points, Jake Moody HIGHER than 1.5 FG made, Tua Tagovailoa HIGHER than 18.85 fantasy points and Jason Sanders HIGHER than 2.5 XP made
20x your entry fee on Underdog Fantasy.
Like the other 20x entry, this entry optimizes for game environments in the Dolphins-Bills and Cardinals-49ers games. The Dolphins’ potential for another offensive spike appears underpriced in Buffalo. In San Francisco, the 49ers appear likely to dominate time of possession.
If the Dolphins produce an offensive spike, it likely will come through Hill or Waddle. When Hill produces enough to exceed his fantasy points total, Tagovailoa becomes increasingly likely to surpass his fantasy points total as well. When both Dolphins’ offensive pieces go higher than their statistics, Sanders is more likely than not to make at least three extra point kicks.
If the 49ers field long drives, they will have numerous possessions with the potential to end in successful field goal attempts. When the 49ers drive down the field, White becomes more likely to make tackles.
Ezekiel Elliott HIGHER than 7.5 rushing attempts, Brandon Aubrey HIGHER than 1.5 FG made and Mac Jones LOWER than 214.5 passing yards
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Even without Trevon Diggs, the Dallas Cowboys’ pass defense will be a test for the mediocre New England Patriots’ passing attack. In games where the Patriots struggle to move the ball through the air, they should shift their tendencies to running more often. While Rhamondre Stevenson should see the majority of the rushing attempts share, his decrease in attempts last week to below 50 percent in Week 3 could signal more of a split than Weeks 1 and 2 let on.
The Cowboys’ offense has had tremendous success moving the ball down the field but has stagnated in the red zone due to poor schematic decisions. Their ineptitude should regress somewhat toward the league average, they could stall on the Patriots’ side of the field more than once. If this is the case, K Brandon Aubrey should see opportunities to make at least two field goals.
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