Analysis

10/5/23

10 min read

2023 NFL Week 5: Biggest Matchups, Mismatches

By Sports Info Solutions

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Each week, Sports Info Solutions will generate a matchup comparison for the week’s NFL games based around its proprietary Total Points stat. 

Total Points takes nearly everything that happens on the field and scales it in a way that allows you to compare players, units and teams. It will enable you to pinpoint mismatches, perhaps those you weren’t even aware existed.

To learn more about Total Points, read our piece from last season. 

Here’s our look at Week 5.

Total Points Per Play ranks are based on 2023 performance to date. Fourth-down Decision Ranks are based on the head coach’s history over the last two seasons. See a brief description of the ranking methodology in this piece.

Week 5 Matchups

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Bears vs. Commanders

Fourth-down decisions: Bears 14th, Commanders 22nd

Justin Fields is coming off one of the best passing performances of his career, and he’ll be given a slightly more difficult test against the Washington Commanders' pass defense.

On the other side is a stoppable-force-versus-movable-object situation, where Sam Howell ranks 30th in Total Points per play and faces a bottom-four pass rush and pass coverage unit.

Jaguars vs. Bills

Fourth-down decisions: Jaguars 27th, Bills 11th

The Buffalo Bills firmly announced they aren’t ready to give up the AFC East crown by drubbing the Miami Dolphins last week. Look how clean those rankings read with no double-digit numbers.

Trevor Lawrence has not taken another step forward as we might have expected, but the other units on the offense rank in the bottom 10 by Total Points per play, so it’s been a below-par group effort.

Texas vs. Falcons

Fourth-down decisions: Texans first, Falcons 15th

This is the first week the rookie head coaches feature in our fourth-down decision-making rankings, and DeMeco Ryans leaps to the top. His 74 percent rate of correct decisions by our model led all coaches over the last two years.

Not only that, but he has C.J. Stroud firmly in the thick of the Offensive Rookie of the Year conversation, with a passing game that ranks among the best in the league. The Atlanta Falcons … are not doing that, but at least their pass catchers rank among the best in On-Target Catch percent and broken/missed tackles per reception.

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Panthers vs. Lions

Fourth-down decisions: Panthers ninth, Lions 17th

Carolina’s offense wasn’t expected to set the world aflame, but an 18th-ranked defense by Total Points per play was not anticipated. An immediate Jaycee Horn injury made for an immediate uphill climb, but the run defense has been a bigger problem.

The Detroit Lions’ total run production is a bit misleading because of how last week’s game against the Packers went, but that doesn’t mean the Carolina Panthers should be any less concerned about facing the thunder-and-lightning combo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Keep an eye on the Lions’ deep passing going forward. Jared Goff has gone 7 of 11 on 20-plus yard throws this year, and Jameson Williams is back in the fold.

Titans vs. Colts

Fourth-down decisions: Titans seventh, Colts 29th

The Tennessee Titans still have that throwback look, ranking among the best teams in running the ball and stopping the run. The Indianapolis Colts are not particularly good at either of those things, but will Jonathan Taylor come back to spark the Colts' running game? 

This is one of the bigger fourth-down decision mismatches based on a small sample of Shane Steichen. To his credit, he’s been fairly accurate to the SIS fourth-down model, but a few suboptimal choices in “go” situations drop him quite a bit.

Giants vs. Dolphins

Fourth-down decisions: Giants 28th, Dolphins 19th

Both teams have their tails between their legs after tough losses in Week 4, but let’s not confuse them for each other in terms of outlook.

The New York Giants rank last in both offensive and defensive Total Points per play, while the Miami Dolphins still rank first offensively, even after being curtailed a bit in the loss to Buffalo.

Of course, Miami's defense is a point of concern for their long-term prospects, but the Giants' offense isn't likely to exploit that.

Saints vs. Patriots

Fourth-down decisions: Saints 23rd, Patriots 25th

This is a matchup of two teams that started the season with reasonable confidence but have struggled the last couple of weeks. Mac Jones has not progressed, with his Passing Total Points per play dropping each year.

On the other side, Derek Carr has played less and worse than the New Orleans Saints had hoped. With both defenses performing well against the pass, don’t expect too many fireworks in this one.

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Ravens vs. Steelers

Fourth-down decisions: Ravens 24th, Steelers 32nd

Get excited for the Wile E. Coyote v. Roadrunner aesthetic of T.J. Watt coming after Lamar Jackson. The former has the third-most pressures in the league this year, and the latter eludes tackles like no one else.

The Baltimore Ravens' pass rush has been pretty good this year, and the combination of a bottom-ranked Pittsburgh Steelers line with a nearly-bottom-ranked passer should make for an exciting watch in a different way.

Bengals vs. Cardinals

Fourth-down decisions: Bengals 18th, Cardinals second

Before the season started, this would have been a bloodbath on paper. From a Total Points per play angle, these teams have basically Freaky-Friday-ed, with the Cardinals’ offense on the upswing and the Cincinnati Bengals looking even less formidable after Tee Higgins’ rib injury. 

There’s something in the water with these new head coaches, as Jonathan Gannon enters the fourth-down decision rankings at No. 2, making a lot of good calls even if he’s not the most aggressive in going for it.

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Eagles vs. Rams

Fourth-down decisions: Eagles 3rd, Rams 12th

Speaking of being aggressive, Nick Sirianni has the highest rate of going for it when the SIS model recommends it. That’s not just when the Philadelphia Eagles can shove Jalen Hurts across the line. 

Although the Rams look a lot feistier and the Eagles a lot less explosive than expected, this is still a mismatch. Philadelphia's pass rush could prove the biggest problem for the Los Angeles Rams in this matchup. Rookie defensive tackle Jalen Carter ranks among the best pass rushers in the NFL in Pressure% +/-, which adjusts pressure rate based on alignment and game situation.

Jets vs. Broncos

Fourth-down decisions: Jets 21st, Broncos sixth

Russell Wilson isn’t “back,” but the Denver Broncos’ offense ranks fifth in Total Points per play. Despite that, the Broncos are 1-3 because their defense has given generously to the Dolphins and Bears the last couple of weeks.

The most interesting storyline is whether that generosity will be extended to Zach Wilson after his dramatically improved Week 4.

Chiefs vs. Vikings

Fourth-down decisions: Chiefs 26th, Vikings 10th

With the reputation the Kansas City Chiefs have built in the Patrick Mahomes era, we know all too well not to doubt the Chiefs at this point. This is an elite quarterback facing a 30th-ranked pass coverage unit, so Kansas City will be putting the “red” in “red zone.” 

Justin Jefferson is again on pace to set records, but he might not be making a playoff run this year. Sigh, this is why we can’t have nice things.

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Cowboys vs. 49ers

Fourth-down decisions: Cowboys 13th, 49ers fifth

How convenient that the game of the week is both a primetime matchup and a historically relevant one. The San Francisco 49ers have a top-five quarterback (Brock Purdy) and WR (Brandon Aiyuk) plus a top-10 RB (Christian McCaffrey) in Total Points per play. However, they still have some meat on the bone when it comes to their defensive efficiency. 

The Dallas Cowboys have had some weird swings in recent weeks, but the consistent thing they’re bringing is defensive chaos. Micah Parsons is second in the league in pressures, and cornerback DaRon Bland has three interceptions, picking up where Trevon Diggs left off. Those turnovers will assuredly taper off, but they’ll need them to keep up against San Francisco.

Packers vs. Raiders

Fourth-down decisions: Packers fourth, Raiders 30th

This is the biggest fourth down-decision-making mismatch of the week, with Matt LaFleur’s confidence in going for it being a major strength against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Jordan Love hype train was derailed last Thursday against the Lions, but the Packers are still in a better spot than Las Vegas, even if Jimmy Garoppolo returns. 

If we’re still making railroad puns, the Josh Jacobs train has gotten more on track the last two weeks, and a matchup against one of the weaker run-stopping fronts should only help, as long as the game doesn’t get away from them. You know, kind of like a runaway train. I’ll stop now.

This story was authored by Alex Vigderman.

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Sports Info Solutions

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