Analysis
10/10/23
9 min read
2023 NFL Week 5 High-Value Touch Report: Rushing and Receiving Data
We’ll keep it brief with this week’s data nugget. However, it caught me off guard to find four teams with 100 percent goal-to-go (GTG) efficiency: the Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots.
Those teams scored touchdowns on all of their drives in these situations. Seeing that information, I wanted to see how it aligned for teams flashing the most explosive plays.
The graphic below shows the top 10 teams in explosive play percentage (12-plus rush yards or 16-plus receiving yards).
A couple of the top offenses have the most explosive plays while also boasting high efficiency in the red area and GTG opportunities. There could be some regression in the favor of the Denver Broncos, or the offense might not be as fantasy-friendly as we hoped. Meanwhile, we sometimes find explosive offenses making big plays and scoring long touchdowns, but those groups lack efficiency closer to the end zone.
Below, we’ll examine red zone GTG touches and opportunities. The context for these touches is important, so we’ll consider the potential game script that led to the usage. This information helps identify which players might be on the verge of scoring more touchdowns and fantasy points — and which players aren’t.
Given the small sample size, we sometimes find players don’t regress quickly or that the data becomes more noisy than meaningful. The information will be broken down by red zone and GTG rushing and receiving data to find usage patterns and expected fantasy points.
Zack Moss Dominated Colts’ Rush Share
With Jonathan Taylor active in Week 5 and a contract extension finalized, Zack Moss dominated behind a 67.6 percent rush share compared with Taylor’s 17.6 percent. Against the Titans' stout run defense, Moss rushed for 165 yards and two scores, while Taylor had six carries and 18 rushing yards. Moss garnered eight more red zone rushing attempts in Week 5, leading all rushers.
Since Mike Vrabel became the Titans' coach in 2018, they've only allowed 10 100-yard rushers. Moss and Saquon Barkley (164 yards) are the only two in the past three seasons. Many fantasy managers likely missed out on Moss' career-best game after concerns about the matchup and workload with Taylor back in the lineup.
Anthony Richardson will probably miss a few weeks with a Grade 3 AC joint sprain. The Indianapolis Colts may lean on Taylor and Moss more often or shift to a more pass-heavy approach with a capable backup quarterback in Gardner Minshew. Before Week 5, the Colts ranked 18th in pass rate at 57 percent with the highest pace of play at 23.5 seconds per snap. They also have the third-highest no-huddle rate at 22 percent behind the Cardinals, Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans.
It wouldn’t have surprised us if Taylor posted Moss' Week 5 numbers, so don’t panic about Taylor. Assuming he takes most of the workload in the coming weeks, it should bode well for him, given Moss' 17 red zone rushing attempts through five weeks, tying him for fifth, as seen in the visual below.
Trust in Shane Steichen’s offense getting one of their best offensive players, Taylor, back. That might not seem wise because of the Colts' EPA numbers — they rank 22nd in total offensive EPA/G (-2.21). No shade at Moss, but there’s a good chance opposing defenses respect the run more with Taylor, allowing the play-action game to be more effective for Indianapolis.
Is Joe Mixon a Buy Low — Again?
Jalen Hurts and Joe Mixon tied Moss with eight red zone rushes. Hurts had 44 red zone carries last season (No. 5 in the league), one behind Miles Sanders, so Hurts' usage isn't fluky. Interestingly, Desmond Ridder (3), Jameis Winston (2), Taysom Hill (2) and Kenny Pickett (2) had more than one red zone carry in Week 5.
Remember last season when Mixon kept ending up in the buy-low category? Well, that might be happening again. He has the highest rush share at 79.2 percent, and a 9.1 percent target share (No. 23). Mixon bumped up the high-value touch leaderboard after Week 5; for context, Mixon had eight red zone carries in Weeks 1-4.
Before Week 5, Mixon ranked 22nd in expected points per game (EP/G), suggesting he's more of an RB2 than a RB1 like in previous seasons. That might be because of the matchup or Joe Burrow becoming healthier. The Cincinnati Bengals put up their best offensive performance against the Cardinals. The volume is in Mixon's favor, so look to acquire him if you believe the Bengals offense bounces back. However, we should temper expectations of Mixon being an RB1 moving forward.
Breece Hall Explosive vs. Broncos
We have five more running backs tied with five red zone carries in Week 5. That list includes Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery, Christian McCaffrey, Kenneth Gainwell and Breece Hall. Hall looked explosive in a softer matchup — he had a 13.3 percent explosive rush rate (rushes of 12-plus yards). He set a career-high in rushing yards at 177 and is one of just three players to post 175 or more in 2023 (Swift and De'Von Achane).
Besides Hall, Montgomery was the only other running back among the five to finish on the explosive rush percentage list at 5.3 percent. That’s likely due to Kamara and McCaffrey playing in blowout wins.
Kamara garnered 72.4 percent of his carries in the first three quarters (No. 6), with McCaffrey close behind at 62.1 percent (No. 10). They each only had one carry in the fourth. While Gainwell's five red zone carries seem interesting, they all came in the fourth quarter when the Philadelphia Eagles rested D'Andre Swift. Keep stashing Gainwell as the clear backup to Swift, though we know Hurts will continue eating into the team's rushing share.
Red Zone Receiving
The top five leaders in red zone targets scored a touchdown in Week 5. Ja'Marr Chase scored on two of his four opportunities. Adam Thielen, Jaylen Waddle and Chase tied with four targets in Week 5. That brings Chase's season total to nine, tying him for third with Stefon Diggs and Garrett Wilson.
The visual below shows the leaders in red zone targets.
In Week 5, Thielen (6) and Waddle (5) garnered most of the Dolphins' season-long red zone looks. Before the season, I avoided Carolina Panthers wide receivers. However, Thielen remains Bryce Young's top option. He has a 24.9 percent target share (No. 19) and a respectable 1.89 yards per route run. Shoutout to The 33rd Team's Jordan Vanek for touting Thielen in the offseason after many, including myself, thought he lacked fantasy value.
Goal-to-Go Rushing
Mixon's rushing inefficiency showed up in Week 5 with six GTG carries for zero touchdowns. He led all rushers in these situations, with Kamara and Hall tied at four. The game script likely came into play because Mixon garnered six of his nine carries on the season in Week 5 but still had zero touchdowns in GTG situations.
The graphic below shows the season-long rushing leaders in GTG situations, indicating Mixon is due for regression.
While we laughed about Kamara's receiving inefficiencies last week, he dominated the rushing game in a positive game script. Kamara had 72.4 percent of the team's rush attempts in the first three quarters while rookie Kendre Miller had 13.8 percent. Then, Miller had 61.5 percent of his team carries in the fourth compared with Kamara's 7.7 percent.
Continue stashing Miller as the New Orleans Saints' primary backup. Though Miller closed out the game, he flashed his receiving abilities with a 15.4 percent target share and two receptions for 44 yards in the first half.
Achane deserves a ton of buzz, but the Miami Dolphins looked toward Waddle and Raheem Mostert in GTG situations. That's partly because Achane and Tyreek Hill tied with 33.3 percent of their plays being explosive. TruMedia defines explosive plays as rushes of 12-plus yards and receptions of 16-plus yards. And that aligns with Achane and Hill's film.
Through five weeks, Mostert and Achane each have six GTG rushes, yet Mostert has double the number of touchdowns (four vs. two). The Dolphins continue to be a well-balanced offense that's dangerous from all areas of the field. On Tuesday morning, Adam Schefter reported Achane could be heading to injured reserve with a knee injury. Hopefully, he doesn't miss a lot of time and comes back down the stretch, given his week-winning abilities.
A.J. Dillon Inefficient, Isn't Evading Tacklers
On Monday night, A.J. Dillon garnered a hefty workload because Aaron Jones sat out with a hamstring injury for the third straight game. Dillon finished with an 80 percent rush share (No. 4) but only one target. He punched in a short-yardage score on four GTG rushes in Week 4, tying him for the second most.
Dillon matched his previous total on the season, adding up to eight through five weeks. The Green Bay Packers lean pass-heavy. They have the 12th-highest pass rate at 61 percent.
The visual below shows the running backs averaging less than two yards after contact per attempt (YAC/Att) in Weeks 1-4 with a minimum of 25 carries. We included other metrics relevant to rushers to provide context on how they're creating their production.
Unfortunately, Dillon has been inefficient as a rusher. He has the fifth-worst rushing fantasy points over expectation per game (FPOE/G) at -3.8, tied with Dameon Pierce. Though Dillon creates yards after contact (No. 33 out of 45 qualified rushers), he ranks 61st out of 69 in broken plus missed tackle rate at 4.5 percent. That indicates he isn't evading many tacklers, so it's potentially inefficient volume without Jones. The phrase "volume is king" matters until we witness brutal efficiency without results.
Goal-to-Go Receiving
While Cole Kmet and Jordan Addison don't pop in the numbers, let's touch on them. They both had three GTG opportunities and scored one each. Kmet now has four, and Addison had three coming in Week 5. That could indicate Week 5 being a bit noisy, so keep that in mind.
The Chicago Bears' tight end appears like the second-best option behind DJ Moore and serves as a safer tight end with boom potential.
Hopefully, Addison earns a better role, though K.J. Osborn leads the Minnesota Vikings in routes per game (40.6), ahead of Justin Jefferson (39.8). Jefferson (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve on Tuesday, so Addison should earn more playing time.
When Jefferson left the game in the fourth quarter, Osborn and Addison each ran for a team-leading 22 routes as Minnesota trailed the Kansas City Chiefs. That indicates Addison moves into two receiver sets with Jefferson out, though the entire offense will take a step back.
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