Analysis
10/21/23
10 min read
2023 NFL Week 7 Betting Preview for Every Game
I’ve watched every snap of every NFL game since 2014 because I bet on football in a variety of ways. ATS tournaments, as well as survivor and winner pools, are among my favorites. Those contests don’t usually lock until the weekend, so we should make our final decisions as late as possible.
In this article, I’ll discuss how I’m treating various situations in each of those formats. I’ll also provide updates on line movement, along with notes on every game, every week. I’ll even sprinkle in the occasional daily fantasy stance.
Circa Sports Million V Pro Football Contest will be referred to as “Circa” and DraftKings Pick'Em as “DraftKings” in this column. In addition to the current market consensus lines, I’ll provide spreads from both contests, so you don’t have to research disparities.
Be sure to keep up to date on injuries with Ari Meirov's Injury Report Tracker.
Lions at Ravens
Spread: Ravens -3
Total: 43
The spread for this contest opened as Baltimore Ravens -2.5 but quickly adjusted to Ravens -3. The total first dropped from 44.5 to 42 points, before rising again late this week to 43 points. Circa has the Ravens -3, while DraftKings has the Ravens -3.5.
Expect the Detroit Lions to be used in nearly two-thirds of winner pools this week. That makes the favored Ravens a strong leverage play in the format. That’s why I’ll use Baltimore in roughly 60 percent of my winner pools. If I was in one winner pool, I’d take the Ravens for the same reason. Despite being a little Ravens-heavy in winner pools, I’ll consider Lions +3.5 in one of my DraftKings ATS entries. This contest should be completely avoided in survivor pools.
Falcons at Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers -2.5
Total: 37
The spread for this contest has stayed at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 with minor fluctuations. The total has gradually fallen from 40 down to 37 points. Both Circa and DraftKings have the Buccaneers -2.5.
Expect the Buccaneers to be used in roughly 80 percent of winner pools this week. That makes the Atlanta Falcons a leverage play in the format. To that end, I will use a 60 percent Buccaneers to 40 percent Falcons type of ratio in winner pools. If you play in just one winner pool, take Tampa if you are more conservative and Atlanta if you’re more aggressive. This contest should be avoided in survivor pools, and I have no interest against the spread here.
Commanders at Giants
Spread: Giants +3
Total: 37.5
The spread for this contest has moved from New York Giants +2 to Giants +3. The total has fallen from 40.5 points down to 37.5 points. Circa has the Giants +3, while DraftKings has the Giants +1.5.
Expect the Washington Commanders to be used in at least 75 percent of winner pools this week. That makes the Giants yet another strong leverage play as a slight home underdog. New York could be without three starting offensive linemen against the Commanders' premium front. If the Giants’ offensive line was at full strength, I’d be very Giants-heavy in this matchup. Because they aren’t, my winner pool ratio for this contest will be Commanders 60 percent and Giants 40 percent. This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Browns at Colts
Spread: Colts +3.5
Total: 39
The spread for this contest opened as Indianapolis Colts +2 before moving to Colts +3.5 late in the week. The total has moved from 39.5 points to 39 points. Circa has Colts +3, while DraftKings has Colts +1.5.
Expect the Cleveland Browns to be used in roughly 80 percent of winner pools this week. The Colts have some upside as a leverage play in the format because they are a fairly narrow home underdog. That said, I’m going to be close to all-in on Cleveland primarily because of its suffocating defense.
If Deshaun Watson plays, I will consider Cleveland as an aggressive play in one of my survivor pool entries. My primary concern there is that the Browns are coming off a big-time win against the San Francisco 49ers. This is a classic letdown spot. The second concern is that if the Colts can keep this game close enough to be very run-centric, that would reduce the impact of Cleveland’s elite pass defense. I will take Browns +1.5 in at least one of my DraftKings ATS entries.
Bills at Patriots
Spread: Patriots +8.5
Total: 40
The spread for this contest opened as New England Patriots +9 before moving down to Patriots +8.5 midweek. The total has moved down from 41.5 points to 40 points. Both Circa and DraftKings have Patriots +8.5.
Expect the Buffalo Bills to be used in roughly 95 percent of winner pool entries this week. New England has a massive injury report, so I’ll be even with the field on Buffalo in the format. Buffalo is a reasonable survivor pool option on a difficult week in that format. I’m going to avoid this game against the spread.
Raiders at Bears
Spread: Bears +2.5
Total: 37.5
The spread for this contest opened as Chicago Bears +3 before moving to Bears +2.5 late in the week. The total has come down from 40 to 37.5. Circa has Bears +3, while DraftKings has Bears +3.5.
Expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be used in roughly 80 percent of winner pools. Both teams will start backup quarterbacks in this contest. Having seen Tyson Bagent play last week, he’ll have to be an entirely different player to run a functioning offense. I’ll be even with the field on the Raiders in winner pools this week. Taking an unreliable team such as the Raiders on the road in survivor pools is a fairly terrifying prospect. If you play survivor with some volume, the Raiders are a viable, aggressive play this week. If you only have one survivor pool, you probably want to look elsewhere.
Steelers at Rams
Spread: Rams -3
Total: 43.5
The spread for this contest has stayed at Los Angeles Rams -3 all week. The total has risen from 42.5 to 43.5 points. Circa has the Rams -3, while DraftKings has the Rams -3.5.
Expect the Rams to be used in roughly 75 percent of winner pool entries this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers coming off a bye are an interesting leverage option as long as edge rusher T.J. Watt suits up. If he does, my strongest stance of the week will be to be very Steelers-heavy in winner pools. I will avoid this game in survivor pools, but I will take Pittsburgh +3.5 with one of my DraftKings entries if Watt plays.
Cardinals at Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks -7.5
Total: 44.5
The spread for this contest opened as Seattle Seahawks -8.5, before moving to Seahawks -7.5 midweek. The total has come down from 46.5 to 44.5 points. Both Circa and DraftKings have Seahawks -7.5.
Expect Seattle to be used in nearly all winner pool entries this week. Considering that the Seahawks will also be an extremely popular survivor pool entry this week, Arizona is a leverage play in winner pools. I don’t have much confidence that the Cardinals will win this game from a pure football standpoint. That goes double because Seattle’s offense was underwhelming last week in Cincinnati in a close game. The Seahawks are talented, but I am not treating them as a reliable team. I will take them in a few of my survivor pools, but I’m not going to be heavy on Seattle. I do, however, intend to use the Seahawks in just about all of my winner pool entries.
Chargers at Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -5.5
Total: 48
The line for this matchup has stayed at Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 all week. The total has moved from 51 down to 48 points. Both Circa and DraftKings have the Chiefs -5.5.
Expect the Chiefs to be used in roughly 90 percent of winner pool entries this week. My ratio will be closer to Chiefs 65 percent and Chargers 35 percent. I’m going to completely ignore this game in survivor pools, but I will take Chargers +5.5 in at least one of my ATS tournament entries.
Packers at Broncos
Spread: Broncos +1
Total: 44.5
The spread for this matchup opened as Denver Broncos +2, before moving down to Broncos +1 early this week. Circa has Broncos +1.5, while DraftKings has Broncos +0.5.
Expect the Green Bay Packers to be used in roughly 75 percent of winner pool entries. Denver is an interesting leverage play from a pure game theory standpoint, but the Broncos are extremely unreliable. To that end, I play Green Bay in roughly 65 percent of my winner pool entries, so I’m slightly lower than the field on them in that format. If I had just one winner pool entry, I’d take Green Bay. I have not entirely ruled out taking the Packers in survivor pools, but I have little enthusiasm for them in that particular format. I will, however, play the Packers in at least one of my ATS tournament entries.
Sunday Night Football
Dolphins at Eagles
Spread: Eagles -2.5
Total: 51.5
The spread for this contest has stayed at Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 with minor fluctuations. The total for this matchup has moved down from 53 to 51.5 points. Both Circa and DraftKings have the Eagles -2.5.
Expect the Eagles to be used in right around 50 percent of winner pool entries this week. I will use them in roughly 70 percent of my own, and I’d use Philadelphia if I was in only one winner pool. I’ll be aggressive in winner pools, but I will not mess with this game in survivor pools. I will, however, take the Eagles -2.5 in at least one of my ATS tournament entries.
Monday Night Football
49ers at Vikings
Spread: Vikings +7
Total: 44
The spread for this contest has bounced between Minnesota Vikings +6.5 and Vikings +7. The total for this matchup has fallen from 45 to 44 points. Circa has the Vikings at +7, while DraftKings has the Vikings at +6.5.
Expect the 49ers to be used in roughly 95 percent of winner pool entries this week. I’m going to take San Francisco in all of my winner pool entries. I would prefer to save San Francisco in most of my survivor pool entries, but I will take them in a few during this difficult slate.
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Ryan Reynolds is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. He has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
