Analysis
10/21/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 7: Top Underdog Higher, Lower Entries to Consider
We will evaluate the projections available on Underdog Fantasy each week and craft entries that leverage game environments and correlation to maximize value.
Week 7 Higher/Lower Entries
Saquon Barkley LOWER than 3.5 receptions, Sam Howell LOWER than 227.5 passing yards and Terry McLaurin LOWER than 60.5 rushing + receiving yards
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The Washington Commanders travel to take on the New York Giants in a battle between the NFC East’s two inferior teams. This game should feature winds of up to 20 mph, with gusts approaching 30 mph. Though such winds will not eliminate the passing game’s viability, deeper throws to Terry McLaurin are likely to have slightly less success than they would otherwise.
Due to Daniel Jones’ neck injury, the Giants’ quarterback situation is still undecided. However, neither Jones nor Tyrod Taylor gives them an edge over the superior Washington team. The Commanders are likelier to have a lead, making them a candidate to depart from their lead-leading passing tendencies relative to expectation.
Despite two straight games with at least four receptions, Saquon Barkley plays on slightly less than 60 percent of the team’s long down and distance snaps. Additionally, his targets per route run (TPRR) of 19 percent is unremarkable and firmly league-average. Barkley is more likely to have three or fewer receptions than eclipse four.
Ezekiel Elliott LOWER than 8.5 receiving yards, Mac Jones LOWER than 30.5 passing attempts and Stefon Diggs LOWER than 88.5 receiving yards
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Despite the New England Patriots’ overall poor showings through six games, their defense has yet to allow a pass-catcher more than 86 yards. The weather in this game, similar to the Commanders vs. Giants game, should feature winds that may lower deep passing success. These factors make Stefon Diggs likely to have fewer than 89 receiving yards.
The Patriots’ passing offense has been dreadful through six weeks. Mac Jones’ leash as the team’s starting quarterback grows thinner with every poor performance. The chance for benching makes taking lower than 30.5 passing attempts attractive because Jones missing some of the second half makes him unlikely to attempt at least 31 passes. If both teams have to embrace a run-heavy approach due to weather, or if the Patriots do not give Ezekiel Elliott an increased role in the passing game, Elliott is more likely than not to have eight or fewer receiving yards.
Lamar Jackson LOWER than 55.5 rushing yards, Amon-Ra St. Brown HIGHER than 6.0 receptions and Kerby Joseph LOWER than 5.5 tackles and assists
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The Detroit Lions take on the Baltimore Ravens as underdogs. The season’s first six weeks have displayed two relatively equal teams, if not a superior club in Detroit. With David Montgomery missing time due to injury and with relatively high blitz rates from Baltimore, Jared Goff should look to pass the ball quickly, with targets such as Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta to help consistently move the sticks.
If the Lions successfully control the time of possession more than expected, the Ravens’ play volume will decrease. As such, Kerby Joseph will have fewer opportunities to record tackles. The Ravens should also adjust their tendencies to pass more often because the Lions have a top-six rushing defense by estimated points added (EPA) per play and defensive success rate allowed.
Kenny Pickett LOWER than 215.5 passing yards, Allen Robinson II LOWER than 2.5 receptions and Puka Nacua HIGHER than 11.5 receiving yards vs. Diontae Johnson
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After the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Week 6 bye, Diontae Johnson returns from a hamstring injury. However, his receiving yards projection sitting within 12 yards of Puka Nacua’s projection is optimistic.
The Los Angeles Rams have lost their two starting running backs, and their significantly depleted rushing game should cause an increase in pass tendency, likely benefiting Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Both players are candidates to exceed their receiving projections in a game where the market has undervalued the Rams’ overall passing attack.
With George Pickens and Johnson participating in nearly every passing play, Allen Robinson’s role should decrease; he will split snaps with Calvin Austin. In games where Nacua has more than 12 receiving yards relative to Johnson and where Robinson has two or fewer receptions, the lower selection on Kenny Pickett’s passing yards is significantly correlated.
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