Analysis
10/26/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 8 Betting Preview: Las Vegas Raiders at Detroit Lions
Raiders (3-4) at Lions (5-2)
Spread: Lions -8
Total: 46.5
Weather: Indoor game
The Line Report
The spread for this contest has stayed at Lions -8 through Thursday morning.
The total has risen from its 44.5 point opening to its mark of 46.5 points.
Lions Offense vs. Raiders Defense
The Detroit Lions were just blown out 38-6 in Baltimore last week. Detroit’s offense, which is scoring the eighth most points per game, couldn’t put anything together despite trailing all game. Jared Goff’s offense is in a correction spot this week against the Raiders.
With David Montgomery out, rookie Jahmyr Gibbs saw 11 carries and 10 targets last week. If Montgomery continues to miss time, it is logical that the 12th overall pick, Gibbs, continues to lead Detroit’s backfield. The Las Vegas Raiders allow the seventh-most rushing yards per game to running backs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has missed a game, but he’s fifth in the league in receptions (51) and eighth in receiving yards (557). After catching a 45-yard touchdown in Week 6, Jameson Williams didn’t catch any of his six targets last week. The Raiders, surprisingly, have allowed the sixth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers.
Las Vegas has also been stingy against enemy tight ends so far this season. Lions rookie Sam LaPorta is fourth among tight ends in receptions (35) and receiving yards (377).
Raiders Offense vs. Lions Defense
Jimmy Garoppolo is listed as questionable after missing last week’s contest in Chicago. Even if Garoppolo plays, the Raiders have a limited offense. If he doesn’t, Brian Hoyer and Aidan O’Connell have been underwhelming, to say the least.
After a career year in 2022, Josh Jacobs is averaging 2.9 yards per carry. He’s topped out at 77 rushing yards in a game this year, which came on 25 carries. The Lions are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game to running backs.
Detroit has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards to wide receivers this year. Davante Adams is 11th in the league in receiving yards (385) and 10th in target share (30 percent). Entering Week 7, Adams publicly complained about his role despite Las Vegas coming off back-to-back wins.
Jakobi Meyers is second on the team in target share (26.3 percent) and the standalone second option in the Raiders’ passing game. No other Raiders wide receiver or tight end has a target share over 6.3 percent.
Rookie TE Michael Mayer has that 6.3 percent target share. That number is on the rise as Mayer has 15 targets on the season but 10 in the past two games. The Lions allow the fifth-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends.
What You’re Betting On in Raiders at Lions
A bet on the Lions is a bet on a contender in a classic bounce-back spot after last week’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Detroit is a tough, complete team that can beat you in any phase. That said, its running game is far less consistent without Montgomery. Therefore, if you’re betting on the Lions, you are betting on a strong outing from Goff. You’re also betting on the Lions' defense against whichever quarterback starts for Las Vegas.
If you are betting on the Raiders, you are betting on a team with a good core but a limited roster. The Raiders' defense has driven their three wins, which means a bet on Las Vegas is a bet on its defense continuing to overachieve. The real problem is that the Raiders do not have a great option at quarterback. Betting on their offense in a prime time road game is a little thin.
Score Prediction: Lions 27, Raiders 13
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 18-17
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 15-11
Ryan is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. Ryan has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
