Analysis
10/24/23
3 min read
2023 NFL Week 8 Betting Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills
Buccaneers (3-3) at Bills (4-3)
Spread: Bills -8.5
Total: 42
Weather: No current concerns
The Line Report
The spread for this contest opened as Bills -7.5, then jumped to Bills -8.5 early in the week.
The total has slid down from 42.5 to 42 points.
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Bills Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense
Since their Week 5 trip to London, the Buffalo Bills’ offense hasn’t looked like itself. Josh Allen’s passing attack has been unimpressive over the last two weeks. Now he faces a Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense that allows the sixth-most passing yards per game.
Tampa Bay has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to wide receivers. Stefon Diggs is second in the league in target share and air yards share. Diggs has more than 100 receiving yards in five games this year. Gabe Davis only has four receptions for 27 receiving yards over his previous two games. Before that, he caught a touchdown pass in four consecutive weeks.
Bills tight end Dawson Knox will miss several weeks due to injury. That creates expanded role opportunities for rookie Dalton Kincaid. Last week against the Patriots, Kincaid caught all eight of his targets for 75 receiving yards. The Buccaneers have been a middle-of-the-pack defense against opposing tight ends.
After explosive games in Weeks 2 and 3, James Cook hasn’t been overly productive since. Latavius Murray has supplemented Cook on the ground, but Cook is seeing more targets. The Buccaneers have been good against the run, but they’ve allowed the 11th most receiving yards per game to running backs. The Buccaneers held Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts well below expectations earlier this year.
Buccaneers Offense vs. Bills Defense
The Bills are allowing the eighth-most rushing yards and the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs. Tampa Bay has run for the fourth-fewest yards per game. Rachaad White is 31st among running backs in rushing yards, but he’s 10th in receiving yards.
Buffalo has allowed the seventh-fewest receiving yards to enemy wide receivers. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both have a 24.9 percent target share. Evans has a 38.1 percent team air yards share, while Godwin’s is 25.4 percent. Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton has more than 20 receiving yards in two of his six games.
What You’re Betting On
Since 2019 the Bills are 51-21 in the regular season. Buffalo has struggled over the past few weeks, but the Bills have been one of the league's most consistent teams for years. Early in the season, Buffalo won three games by a considerable distance, including a blowout win over Miami. If you’re betting on the Bills, you expect that they return to form in a short week. A bet on Buffalo is also a direct bet against Baker Mayfield's offense.
Tampa Bay’s offense is unreliable in both phases. Betting on Mayfield to carry the Buccaneers against the Bills is an enormous ask. He’s an NFL quarterback, so it’s possible, but it should not be the expectation. That means a bet on Tampa Bay is a bet on their defense against Buffalo’s suddenly inconsistent offense.
Score Prediction: Bills 24, Buccaneers 13
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 18-17
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 15-11
Ryan is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. Ryan has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
