Analysis
10/28/23
8 min read
2023 NFL Week 8 DFS Main Slate Tournament Analysis
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, including DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, and Lineup Construction.
Below, we will look at some of the double stacks, single stacks, and mini stacks I will be looking to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
If you haven’t already, check out the Cover 5 show on YouTube.
Week 8 DFS Slate Analysis
Double Stacks
- Stack: QB Jalen Hurts WR AJ Brown WR DeVonta Smith
The Washington Commanders have allowed four quarterbacks to average more than nine yards per attempt this season, with Jalen Hurts achieving that feat just four weeks ago. A.J. Brown stood out in that game, amassing 175 yards and two touchdowns.
While the Commanders will likely target Brown to prevent a repeat performance, it's worth noting that they prioritized containing him in their last encounter. To open up opportunities for Brown, utilizing DeVonta Smith could draw the Commanders' safety to the middle of the field, keeping their defense honest. In the previous game where Brown excelled, Smith had a quieter day with 78 receiving yards. Smith's popularity is not there this weekend, and this stack can explode.
Keep an eye on D’Andre Swift, as he can potentially disrupt this dynamic. If the Commanders employ a deep safety strategy, similar to what the Vikings did earlier this season against the Eagles, Swift's explosiveness and versatility could lead to impressive numbers.
- Stack: QB Lamar Jackson WR Zay Flowers And/Or TE Mark Andrews
On-slaught stack for the Baltimore Ravens in a game against the Arizona Cardinals on the road. Lamar Jackson is the best passer in the NFL against zone coverage, and the Cardinals are second in zone coverage usage. For Jackson to hit a ceiling performance, he will need playmakers to do their part, and the two that are important are Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. These two continue to dominate the looks against zone coverages, and I don’t mind taking one or both of these players. They have more than 50 percent of the targets against zone coverage and continue to perform at a high level against it.
- Stack: QB C.J. Stroud WR Nico Collins WR Tank Dell
- Runback: RB Miles Sanders and/or WR Adam Thielen
C.J. Stroud is my top quarterback choice this week. The Carolina Panthers use a lot of zone coverage, and Stroud ranks in the 90th percentile for yards per attempt among active starters. Without Robert Woods but with Tank Dell returning, Stroud has averaged more than 9.7 yards per attempt in their recent games together.
The Panthers' defense has struggled lately, with quarterbacks posting a high touchdown rate and only Kirk Cousins failing to hit eight yards per attempt. Explosive players such as Collins and Dell should thrive against the Panthers' zone coverage.
The Panthers will introduce a new playcaller and welcome back Austin Corbett on the offensive line, a positive sign after his 2022 ACL injury. Miles Sanders, though underperforming this season due to injuries, is a budget-friendly option after two weeks of rest.
In the receiving corps, Adam Thielen is the go-to choice, and his chemistry with Bryce Young remains strong, regardless of the new playcaller. I also don’t mind Jonathan Mingo in this spot with the change in playcalling and the price point for a player running 80 percent of the routes.
- Stack: QB Joe Burrow WR Ja’Marr Chase WR Tee Higgins
- Runback: RB Christian McCaffrey, TE George Kittle
Joe Burrow's season hasn't been outstanding, but with the benefit of a bye week and a potential return to full health, there's significant upside. The San Francisco 49ers have been vulnerable on the outside recently, setting the stage for Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to be in a great spot. Although this season's data doesn't make Burrow an obvious choice against the 49ers, the prospect of a fully healthy Burrow could spark an offensive explosion.
The 49ers are still have to decide on their starting quarterback, but their game plan will likely revolve around running with Christian McCaffrey to set up play action and targeting George Kittle. The Cincinnati Bengals have struggled against in-line tight ends this year, and Kittle is one of the best in the NFL in this role.
Mini-Stacks
- New England at Miami
- WR Kendrick Bourne RB Raheem Mostert/ WR Jaylen Waddle
The Miami Dolphins have a lot of injured cornerbacks, which benefits Kendrick Bourne, the New England Patriots' top wide receiver. He's had the most targets against the Dolphins' typical coverages and is a cost-effective, high-yield option. However, if two of Xavien Howard, Nik Needham or Jalen Ramsey return, my interest in Bourne will decrease.
In a previous game, Bill Belichick effectively contained Tyreek Hill, who comes with a high price tag. The Dolphins needed Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle to step up, and they will need that again in this one. The Dolphins are also boosted by Connor Williams returning at center, improving their offensive line. Though Mostert has seen reduced snaps recently, it's due to game circumstances. It's worth noting that Miami is a 9.5-point favorite in this match.
- Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
- WR George Pickens RB Travis Etienne
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been struggling to defend against outside wide receivers, particularly in the absence of cornerback Tyson Campbell. Their primary coverage scheme this season has been Cover 3. In this system, George Pickens has been the standout player for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Among players with at least 100 routes run against Cover 3, Pickens ranks sixth in yards per route run and holds the fifth-highest target share for the season.
On the flip side, the Steelers have yielded 125 or more rushing yards in their past three games and allow significant yardage before contact. Travis Etienne is playing 80 percent of the snaps and averaging over 20 touches per game. With this matchup against the Steelers, Etienne finds himself in an exceptionally favorable position to excel.
One-Offs
- RB Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara’s usage is through the roof, with eight or more targets in three of the four games he’s played and getting 10 or more carries in each. He’s had two games with 14 targets this season; only Puka Nacua, Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and A.J. Brown also have done that.
- RB Breece Hall
Breece Hall has back-to-back games with more than 20 DraftKings points, and that’s come because he’s finally seeing more than 50 percent of the snaps. The New York Giants have been an awful run defense this season, and the only team they limited was the Commanders, who have not been a good offensive line.
Player Pool
| Pos | Name | Team | OPP | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| QB | Jalen Hurts | PHI | WAS | $8,200 | $9,200 |
| QB | Lamar Jackson | BAL | ARI | $8,100 | $8,800 |
| QB | C.J. Stroud | HOU | CAR | $6,300 | $7,400 |
| QB | Joe Burrow | CIN | SF | $6,000 | $7,100 |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey | SF | CIN | $9,200 | $10,200 |
| RB | Saquon Barkley | NYG | NYJ | $8,000 | $8,100 |
| RB | Raheem Mostert | MIA | NE | $7,700 | $9,000 |
| RB | Tony Pollard | DAL | LA | $7,500 | $7,600 |
| RB | Alvin Kamara | NO | IND | $7,300 | $8,300 |
| RB | Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX | PIT | $7,200 | $8,700 |
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | SEA | CLE | $7,000 | $8,500 |
| RB | D'Andre Swift | PHI | WAS | $6,300 | $7,700 |
| RB | Isiah Pacheco | KC | DEN | $6,100 | $7,400 |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | ATL | TEN | $6,000 | $7,100 |
| RB | Breece Hall | NYJ | NYG | $5,900 | $7,200 |
| RB | Gus Edwards | BAL | ARI | $5,500 | $6,600 |
| RB | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | MIA | $5,400 | $6,400 |
| RB | Dameon Pierce | HOU | CAR | $5,300 | $6,700 |
| RB | Miles Sanders | CAR | HOU | $4,900 | $6,300 |
| RB | Emari Demercado | ARI | BAL | $4,800 | $5,600 |
| RB | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | HOU | $4,800 | $6,300 |
| RB | Darrell Henderson Jr. | LA | DAL | $4,800 | $5,900 |
| RB | Devin Singletary | HOU | CAR | $4,400 | $5,400 |
| WR | Tyreek Hill | MIA | NE | $9,500 | $9,500 |
| WR | Cooper Kupp | LA | DAL | $9,000 | $9,100 |
| WR | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | SF | $8,100 | $8,500 |
| WR | A.J. Brown | PHI | WAS | $8,000 | $8,700 |
| WR | Puka Nacua | LA | DAL | $7,900 | $8,000 |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | LA | $7,600 | $7,800 |
| WR | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | NE | $7,500 | $7,100 |
| WR | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | CIN | $7,000 | $7,700 |
| WR | DeVonta Smith | PHI | WAS | $6,700 | $6,900 |
| WR | Adam Thielen | CAR | HOU | $6,600 | $8,200 |
| WR | Chris Olave | NO | IND | $6,400 | $7,300 |
| WR | Tyler Lockett | SEA | CLE | $6,000 | $4,500 |
| WR | Tee Higgins | CIN | SF | $5,900 | $6,800 |
| WR | Christian Kirk | JAX | PIT | $5,900 | $7,000 |
| WR | Zay Flowers | BAL | ARI | $5,600 | $6,500 |
| WR | George Pickens | PIT | JAX | $5,600 | $7,400 |
| WR | Nico Collins | HOU | CAR | $5,500 | $7,200 |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | WAS | PHI | $5,300 | $7,000 |
| WR | Marquise Brown | ARI | BAL | $5,200 | $6,500 |
| WR | Diontae Johnson | PIT | JAX | $5,000 | $6,400 |
| WR | Tank Dell | HOU | CAR | $4,900 | $6,000 |
| WR | Kendrick Bourne | NE | MIA | $4,700 | $6,200 |
| WR | Tutu Atwell | LA | DAL | $4,400 | $5,400 |
| WR | Jonathan Mingo | CAR | HOU | $3,400 | $4,900 |
| WR | Michael Gallup | DAL | LA | $3,400 | $5,500 |
| WR | Rashod Bateman | BAL | ARI | $3,300 | $4,900 |
| WR | Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN | KC | $3,300 | $4,700 |
| WR | DeVante Parker | NE | MIA | $3,200 | $5,000 |
| WR | Jalin Hyatt | NYG | NYJ | $3,100 | $4,800 |
| TE | Travis Kelce | KC | DEN | $8,400 | $9,000 |
| TE | Mark Andrews | BAL | ARI | $6,400 | $7,700 |
| TE | George Kittle | SF | CIN | $5,400 | $6,100 |
| TE | Dalton Schultz | HOU | CAR | $3,900 | $5,800 |
| TE | Jake Ferguson | DAL | LA | $3,600 | $4,900 |
| TE | Hayden Hurst | CAR | HOU | $2,900 | $4,800 |
| TE | Trey McBride | ARI | BAL | $2,800 | $4,700 |
| TE | Irv Smith Jr. | CIN | SF | $2,800 | $4,500 |
| DST | Eagles | PHI | WAS | $4,300 | $5,000 |
| DST | Ravens | BAL | ARI | $4,200 | $4,800 |
| DST | Cowboys | DAL | LA | $3,600 | $4,900 |
| DST | Giants | NYG | NYJ | $3,500 | $3,900 |
| DST | Seahawks | SEA | CLE | $3,400 | $4,300 |
| DST | Browns | CLE | SEA | $3,000 | $4,100 |
| DST | Falcons | ATL | TEN | $2,900 | $3,900 |
| DST | Steelers | PIT | JAX | $2,900 | $3,800 |
| DST | Jaguars | JAX | PIT | $2,800 | $4,200 |
| DST | Packers | GB | MIN | $2,700 | $3,800 |
| DST | Vikings | MIN | GB | $2,500 | $3,700 |
| DST | Bengals | CIN | SF | $2,200 | $3,600 |
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