2023 Quarterback Season-Long Betting Lines to Target

We want to find every edge we can in fantasy football and betting. That’s why we constantly look for ways to blend the two of them together. In season-long prop markets, you’ll find significant discrepancies between the lines on DraftKings Sportsbook and Underdog Fantasy’s best ball average draft position (ADP).

Underdog’s flagship tournament, Best Ball Mania, is the world’s most popular fantasy football tournament, with more than 230,000 entries through mid-July of 2023. The wisdom of the crowd concept can be applied here, as ADP has been set by thousands of the most hardcore fantasy players out there.

Each drafted team provides insights into how players' 2023 production is valued by many of the sharpest minds out there. We can use that to make more informed season-long bets, as explored throughout this article.

Others in Series: WR Betting Lines | RB Betting Lines

Note: Quarterbacks with significant rushing upside have been removed from the visualization so as not to skew the data. Given their rushing ability, these quarterbacks have higher ADPs and aren’t expected to throw for as many yards. Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson, Deshaun Watson, Justin Fields and Desmond Ridder were removed.

Kirk Cousins UNDER 4300.5 Yards Passing

Kirk Cousins has the fifth-highest line on DraftKings behind Patrick Mahomes (4800.5), Justin Herbert (4450.5), Joe Burrow (4425.5) and Josh Allen (4350.5).
- Cousins is being drafted as the QB13 on Underdog.
- Three quarterbacks (Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott) have higher ADPs despite a lower DraftKings Line.
A 4,300-yard season is worth more than QB13.
- Since 2018, just three of the 46 quarterbacks to pace for 4300.5 yards during a 17-game season have finished below QB12.
  - On average, those 46 quarterbacks finished as the QB6.
  - Last season, Cousins totaled 4,547 yards as the QB 7 in total points (11th in PPG).
  - If fantasy drafters believed in Cousins’ passing upside, he would be drafted in the QB7-11 range.
Discrepancies between the betting and fantasy markets can be attributed to the following:
- Cousins’ ADP is already skewed higher due to those stacking him with Justin Jefferson. Individuals are likely to reach if they have already drafted Jefferson.
  - Daniel Jones and Geno Smith are both being drafted after Cousins despite having more fantasy points per game last season.
    - Neither have a WR/TE with an ADP in the first three rounds.
- Cousins has little rushing upside. His 5.7 yards rushing per game ranked 25th out of 32 starting quarterbacks despite finishing top 10 in yards passing per game (267.5). Every quarterback being drafted ahead of him (except Tagovailoa) had more yards rushing per game last season.

Trevor Lawrence OVER 3975.5 Yards Passing

Lawrence has the largest negative difference between the line-of-best-fit, his Underdog ADP and DraftKings yards passing line.
- Based on where Lawrence is being drafted, we expect him to pass for about 279.5 more yards than 3975.5. That number is the largest among quarterbacks.
Lawrence lacks elite rushing upside, meaning his ADP is rooted in his passing ability.
- Lawrence finished with 3.36 rushing fantasy points per game. This number ranked 10th among starting quarterbacks.
  - His rushing numbers are top-heavy. Lawrence had two rushing touchdowns in the Jacksonville Jaguars’ second-highest-scoring game of the season. Lawrence scored six or more rushing fantasy points in only three of 16 other games.
    - For comparison, Allen scored six or more rushing fantasy points in eight of 16 games.
Finishing with 4,113 yards passing in his first year with head coach Doug Pederson, Lawrence figures to take another step forward with the addition of Calvin Ridley.
- Carson Wentz’s efficiency improved in his second year under Peterson.

	Carson Wentz Splits in…
	AirYards/Target	Yd/Att	TD/Int	PsrRt
Pederson's 2nd Season (2018)	9.91	7.5	4.71	101.9
Pederson's 1st Season (2017)	7.44	6.2	1.14	79.3

- Matt Ryan’s 2019 and 2020 efficiency improved in splits with Ridley.

	2019 - 2020 Matt Ryan Splits with…
	AirYards/Target	Yd/Att	TD/Int	PsrRt
Calvin Ridley on field	8.71	7.4	2.24	93.3
Calvin Ridley off field	7.21	7	1.75	90.9

Don’t forget to line shop, as this line is posted at 3900.5 on FanDuel.

>> READ: Other Passing Line Bets to Consider

Kenny Pickett OVER 3300.5 Yards Passing

Three quarterbacks are being drafted after Kenny Pickett with similar lines. Bryce Young (3500.5), C.J. Stroud (3400.5) and Mac Jones (3300.5).
- The Houston Texans (60.8 percent) and New England Patriots (57.8 percent) both passed at a higher rate than the Pittsburgh Steelers (54.9 percent) last season.
- Pickett’s 220 total YPG was in the 53rd percentile among rookie quarterbacks since 2002. Both Young and Stroud should not be above Pickett’s line.
Pickett was on pace to pass for more than 3,500 yards last season.
- With an improved offensive line and top receiving core of Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, George Pickens and Allen Robinson, the Steelers' passing offense should take a step forward.
- Pittsburgh finished with 3,411 yards passing last season. A full, healthy season of Pickett in an improved offense should yield more than that.
At his ADP, we’d expect Pickett to finish around 3,500 yards.
- Consider that Pickett’s ADP is skewed downwards. He’s being drafted as the QB23 in one-quarterback formats, but his ADP moves from 166 to 52 in Superflex (two-quarterback) formats.
- Russell Wilson and Derek Carr, last year's QBs 22 and 23, finished with more than 3300.5 yards passing despite missing several games each.
Don’t forget to line shop, as this line is posted at 3125.5 on FanDuel.