Fantasy
1/10/24
9 min read
2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football: Early Rookie Draft Wide Receiver Rankings
It’s impossible to not get excited about this wide receiver class, where the top two receivers are some of the best prospects we’ve ever seen.
But this class also has solid depth with players with plenty of upside scattered throughout. It’s clearly a great year to draft rookie wide receivers.
EARLY 2024 DYNASTY ROOKIE WR RANKINGS
1. Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State 
Age: 21
2023 Stats: 67 receptions, 1,211 yards, 15 touchdowns
Marvin Harrison Jr. is seen as one of the greatest wide receiver prospects of this generation, and I don’t think that’s wrong. He’s currently on pace to be a part of a prospect bucket that consists of only Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones and Ja’Marr Chase thanks to Harrison's historic last two seasons at Ohio State.
As a sophomore, he topped 3.00 yards per team pass attempt on an average depth of target of at least 12.0, which has only been done by three 20-year-old wide receivers drafted in the first round: CeeDee Lamb, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave.
Harrison then further improved his yards per team pass attempt output and other peripherals during his junior season. He is a top-five dynasty wide receiver right now.
2. Malik Nabers, LSU
Age: 20
2023 Stats: 89 receptions, 1,569 yards, 14 touchdowns
I think Malik Nabers and Harrison belong in the same tier with a very minimal gap between them. Nabers has better career highs in points per game, target share, yards per team pass attempt and yards per route run — while being a full year younger.
He’s also projected to be drafted well inside the top 10 in April. Nabers finished his junior year with a ridiculous 3.82 yards per team pass attempt and 31.2 percent target share, good for a whopping 25.4 points per game.
If this was any other draft class, he would be the clear-cut WR1.
3. Rome Odunze, Washington
Age: 21
2023 Stats: 92 receptions, 1,640 yards, 14 touchdowns
Rome Odunze is clearly an über talent at the position, but he doesn't have as spotless of a profile as the two players above him.
It took Odunze a bit longer to start posting elite peripherals; he didn't clear 1.50 yards per team pass attempt until his junior season and 2.50 yards per team pass attempt until his senior season. That senior season is one Harrison and Nabers are forgoing.
But Odunze has shown plenty of upside with his production this past season, accounting for over 30 percent of Washington’s receiving yards and posting 2.94 yards per team pass attempt. He’s being projected around the top 10 of the draft.
4. Troy Franklin, Oregon
Age: 20
2023 Stats: 81 receptions, 1,383 yards, 14 touchdowns
Troy Franklin was one of the very best wide receivers in the country last season, posting 24.4 points per game on the back of 3.07 yards per team pass attempt.
There have only been three first-round wide receivers to accomplish at least 24 points per game and 3.00 yards per team pass attempt at 20 years old: Amari Cooper, Drake London and Justin Blackmon. Even if you were to include second-round wide receivers to accomplish this, you add A.J. Brown, Elijah Moore, and Marqise Lee.
At this point, Franklin is a second-round projection at worst. There is plenty to like in his profile, and it’s not even considered a top-three profile in this wide receiver class, which just shows how strong it is.
5. Xavier Worthy (Texas)
Age: 20
2023 Stats: 75 receptions, 1,014 yards, five touchdowns
Two years ago, Xavier Worthy was considered the WR1 of this class after a dominant freshman season. His 19.4 points per game was the sixth highest by an 18-year-old freshman ever, and he accomplished it with a 29.8 percent target share, 2.84 yards per team pass attempt and a 36.3 percent receiving yard share.
Two years later, that’s still the best season of his career. Every one of his peripherals fell from his ridiculous freshman output. Granted, it was a high mark to top, and he still managed to post at least a 27 percent target share every season at Texas.
While we can be disappointed in what followed Worthy's freshman season, that season was better than the best season of most wide receivers in this class.
6. Keon Coleman, Florida State
Age: 20
2023 Stats: 50 receptions, 658 yards, 11 touchdowns
Keon Coleman had a strong junior season with Florida State, but it’s possible to argue his sophomore season at Michigan State was better.
He posted at least 15.0 points per game in both seasons, but his 21.4 percent target share his sophomore season was turned into 27.7 percent of the team’s receiving yards. This season, his 22.7 percent target share was turned into just 21.2 percent of the team’s receiving yards.
When looking through his profile, there isn’t any bad production attached, but there also aren't any eye-popping peripherals. Coleman was simply solid during his time in college, and him declaring early for the draft as a likely first-round pick shows us there is upside in his profile.
7. Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
Age: 21
2023 Stats: 68 receptions, 1,177 yards, 17 touchdowns
Brian Thomas Jr. was the second part of one of the best wide receiver corps in the nation this season. He posted a 19.6 percent target share and 2.98 yards per team pass attempt, good for 21.9 points per game.
He’s projected to have late first-round draft capital after declaring early for the draft.
There is plenty to like with Thomas' profile, but there is still some concern given he hadn’t posted even a 12 percent target share or 1.00 yards per team pass attempt before his junior season. Profiles that don’t consist of early production aren’t as surefire as those that do, even if there is plenty of other good in the profile.
Thomas may not have much of a floor, but his upside cannot be ignored.
8. Adonai Mitchell, Texas
Age: 21
2023 Stats: 55 receptions, 845 yards, 11 touchdowns
Adonai Mitchell is the last player on this list currently projected for first-round draft capital after declaring early for the draft. Since 2006, there have been 40 first-round early-declared wide receivers, and 57.5 percent have achieved a season of at least 14.0 points per game.
That’s a solid hit rate, but when you add in the other factors of Mitchell’s profile, the hit rate unfortunately decreases.
Coming into his junior season, Mitchell's career-high points per game was just 6.7, while his career-high target share was 12.8 percent. Even in his breakout season this year, he failed to hit a 20 percent target share or 2.00 yards per route run. If he’s a first-round selection this April, we can’t ignore his profile.
9. Ladd McConkey, Georgia
Age: 22
2023 Stats: 30 receptions, 478 yards, three touchdowns
In 2023, Ladd McConkey wasn’t quite as productive as he was in his junior season, but that can be likely be attributed to him not being a full-time receiver. McConkey is currently projected for second-round draft capital, which at least gives us hope that a team wants to fully use him.
During his three eligible seasons, he never posted below 2.00 yards per attempt and even posted 3.24 this past season. But he also never posted even 1.75 yards per team pass attempt. The difference between yards per route run and yards per team pass attempt tell us that he wasn’t a full-time route participant at Georgia.
10. Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington
Age: 21
2023 Stats: 69 receptions, 1,159 yards, 10 touchdowns
Ja’Lynn Polk enjoyed a senior breakout season playing alongside Odunze in one of the nation’s best passing attacks. He went for 17.2 points per game on the back of an 18.5 percent target share and 2.14 yards per team pass attempt.
But the senior-year breakout is what makes Polk’s profile a sketchy one.
He failed to post even 12.0 points per game or a 12 percent target share through his first three seasons, and even in his breakout year, his peripherals weren’t eye-popping.
This isn't typically a rookie profile we chase, but if there’s second-round draft capital attached, it’s at least more interesting.
11. Xavier Lagette, South Carolina
Age: 22
2023 Stats: 71 receptions, 1,255 yards, seven touchdowns
Xavier Lagette is one of the oldest wide receiver prospects in this draft at 22.9 years old; he was a fifth-year senior this past year at South Carolina. Prior to his fifth year, he was hardly productive, failing to post even 5.0 points per game or an eight percent target share.
While he was clearly much more productive this season, a prospect waiting until his fifth year to be remotely productive isn’t typically a profile we want to bet on — even if there’s possibly second-round draft capital attached.
