Fantasy

1/29/24

4 min read

2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football: Senior Bowl Preview

By Ian Miller

Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) against the Michigan Wolverines during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Senior Bowl kicks off this week, and it always includes relevant rookie prospects. Those prospects can positively and negatively affect their draft stock at this event, and this year is no different.

I’ve listed five rookie prospects who are expected to have significant draft capital in the upcoming draft and will be in attendance at the Senior Bowl. Keeping an eye on how they perform can help determine how relevant they will be this May in dynasty rookie drafts.

Dynasty Senior Bowl Prospects

Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington

Of all the skill position seniors attending the Senior Bowl, Michael Penix Jr. holds the highest expected draft capital with GrindingTheMocks.com. He has a 12.2 EDP, good for the 11th highest in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Penix completed a very solid season in what was his sixth season of college football, posting 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt and a 6.5 passing percent touchdown rate.

Unfortunately, as a prospect, sixth-year-senior quarterbacks don’t typically fare well, as Brandon Weeden is the only first-round quarterback to play in at least their sixth year of college football. That doesn’t mean Penix isn’t a first-round quarterback, but the floor is a bit worrisome without rushing production on his side.

Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

Bo Nix is one of the bigger mysteries of the draft, which creates a wider range of outcomes for him. He averaged 6.3 rush points per game during his collegiate career, with an 18.4 percent carry percentage and 0.72 yards per team rush attempt.

If that level of rusher at the quarterback position gets first-round draft capital, it makes them more intriguing. Since 2006, 57.1 percent of Konami quarterbacks drafted in the first round have posted at least a 20-point per game season, regardless of their passing profile. It might not be “likely” for Nix to be a first-round quarterback, but it’s not out of the question.

Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina

Xavier Legette was awesome for South Carolina this past season, posting 19.8 fantasy points per game on the back of a 23.3 percent target share and 3.05 yards per team pass attempt. But this level of production came out of nowhere. Legette hadn’t posted 5.0 points per game prior to this past season, which was his fifth year in college football.

That doesn’t bode well in terms of being a safe prospect. But with solid draft capital attached, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside. Since 2006, of all late declares to get drafted in the first two rounds at the wide receiver position, 28.6 percent have posted at least a 16.0 point per game season, while 21.4 percent have posted at least an 18.0 point per game season.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia

Ladd McConkey is a productive player when on the field, having never posted a yards per route run below 2.00 in his collegiate career. He even posted 3.26 yards per route run in his most recent season at Georgia.

Unfortunately, we only got to see McConkey in a full-time role for one season, his junior season, but it resulted in a career-high 13.4 points per game and a career-high 16.6 percent target share.

While he still isn’t a highly regarded prospect in this upcoming class, if the NFL likes him enough to invest significant draft capital into him, which seems likely at this point, there is plenty of upside with his profile. 

North Carolina Tar Heels wide receiver Devontez Walker
North Carolina Tar Heels wide receiver Devontez Walker (9) catches the ball as Duke Blue Devils cornerback Al Blades Jr. (7) defends in the first quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

North Carolina Tar Heels logo Devontez Walker, WR, North Carolina

Devontez Walker was a productive player at Kent State before he transferred to North Carolina for his senior season, where he remained a productive player. This past season, he posted 19.4 points per game on the back of an efficient 2.47 yards per team pass attempt and 2.28 yards per route run.

He was the near leading receiver on this Drake Maye-led offense, only trailing by 12 yards, despite playing in five fewer games.

His production remaining strong despite transferring to tougher competition is a major reason he’s expected to have fringe second-round draft capital.

Tags: Dynasty Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football

Ian Miller

Ian Miller attended Washington State University, where most of the time he was building fantasy football models when he should’ve been paying attention to lectures. That’s where he first started building his process that he continue to grow today. It’s a process that gives probability of success and range of outcomes for recruits all the way to ten year NFL veterans. It’s something Ian not only shares with the readers, but also uses in his personal fantasy leagues.

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