Fantasy
7/25/24
7 min read
2024 Fantasy Football: 4 Players To Avoid In Your Drafts
There is no such thing as a bad NFL player, only bad prices.
At some point in every fantasy draft (if the draft is long enough), every player becomes a value. However, some players are currently being drafted way above where they should be. Using the average draft position (ADP) from live ESPN drafts, here are the four players you should avoid in your fantasy drafts.
4 Players to Avoid in Fantasy
Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles
ESPN Rank: 10
ADP: 12.2
There is no denying Saquon Barkley’s talent and upside. He is one of the most special backs to have entered the league in the last decade, and now he’ll be paired with one of the league’s top offensive lines.
Could this be like the Christian McCaffrey situation, where he goes from fantasy star to league-winner with a change of scenery? Don’t expect that to be the case.
Barkley has a significant injury history, missing at least three games in four of his six NFL seasons. His efficiency has taken a major hit, too, as he’s seen his yards per carry drop from 5.0 as a rookie to 4.0 in the last four seasons. While that could rise, running behind a better offensive line, he clearly isn’t the same athlete that he was back in 2018.
The biggest reason why you should ignore Barkley at his current ADP is the lack of goal-line work. In an offense with Jalen Hurts, it seems unlikely that Barkley will be the preferred runner inside the five-yard line.
Instead, look for the Eagles to lean on the tush-push, keeping Barkley’s touchdown upside in check. He should still be a 1,000-yard rusher, but it will be hard for him to justify his first-round ADP this season.
>> READ MORE: Deep Dive Into Barkley's Role With Eagles
Davante Adams, WR, Raiders
ESPN Rank: 18
ADP: 21.4
If you were to rank the best five wide receivers in the NFL, you would be hard-pressed not to include Davante Adams. There is nothing he can’t do at the position, and he remains the league’s top route runner. He is a true No. 1 receiver in every sense of the word, and his consistency and reliability are unmatched.
Unfortunately, his quarterback situation can’t be described that way. The Las Vegas Raiders were a mess in 2023, rotating between Jimmy Garappolo, Brian Hoyer, and eventually Aidan O’Connell. While they are hopeful it will be better in 2024, O’Connell and Gardner Minshew don’t inspire a ton of confidence. Both players are getting used to a new offense, led by Luke Getsy, and their performances in the summer left a lot to be desired.
The poor quarterback play during the 2023 season really impacted Adams, as he averaged just 57.5 yards per game in the final 13 games of the year. Adams did earn a lot of targets (175), but that could be lowered this year after the Raiders selected Brock Bowers in Round 1 and hired a run-heavy offensive coordinator.
There is no doubt Adams will see plenty of targets and post good numbers, but can he return second-round value in your fantasy drafts? Probably not.
It's also worth noting that Adams will turn 32 during the 2024 season. While that isn’t a death knell for receivers, we usually see elite players take a step back around this time. Consider passing on Adams in Round 2 for other receivers with similar upside (Marvin Harrison Jr., Drake London, Brandon Aiyuk, etc.) who are all younger and have better quarterbacks throwing them the ball.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
ESPN Rank: 19
ADP: 22.9
There are many reasons to be optimistic about Travis Kelce this season. He should be healthier than he was last season, and he remains Patrick Mahomes' No. 1 target. Plus, he is cheaper now than he has ever been in the Mahomes era, which has to be appealing for most fantasy managers.
Unfortunately, he is still overpriced on ESPN, as he is being drafted near the back end of Round 2. There are multiple reasons why you should avoid Kelce in Round 2, but let’s start with his age.
Kelce will turn 35 in October, and the list of tight ends to post elite seasons at that age or later is small. In fact, no tight end has ever produced a 1,000-yard receiving season at 35 or older. It’s also worth noting that no tight end has ever scored more than eight touchdowns in their age 35 season or older.
The good news for Kelce is he isn’t just any old tight end. He is arguably the most prolific pass-catching tight end in NFL history. But the Chiefs are a smart organization, and they will try to “pace” Kelce in the regular season.
That is why they signed Marquise Brown, drafted Xavier Worthy, and brought in another pass-catching tight end (Jared Wiley) on Day 3 of the 2024 NFL Draft. Kelce will still get his touches, but his days of earning 150 targets are likely finished.
Another reason why you should fade Kelce at his current ADP is there is a lot of depth at the tight end position. Kelce is the highest-drafted tight end in ESPN leagues, but the smart play is to wait several rounds and take Trey McBride, George Kittle, Dalton Kincaid, or Evan Engram. All four of those tight ends are significantly younger and offer similar upside to Kelce.
Kelce is still a relatively “safe” option, but he isn’t the league-winner that he was a few years ago. Avoid Kelce at his current ADP. He is just too expensive in the second round.
CJ Stroud, QB, Texans
ESPN Rank: 42
ADP: 44.3
There is no doubt C.J. Stroud is a fantastic quarterback. And by the time the 2024 season ends, we could discuss him as a top-five quarterback in the NFL.
However, this is a good reminder that not all elite NFL quarterbacks are great fantasy options. For a quarterback to be a league-winner in fantasy, they need to make plays with their legs or throw for an ungodly amount of yards and touchdowns.
The Houston Texans added Stefon Diggs to their passing attack this season, giving them one of the league's best receiver trios. Unfortunately, Stroud’s lack of mobility will likely cause him to be overdrafted.
Stroud had just 167 rushing yards during the 2023 season. While that number could improve, it still wouldn’t be enough to make a huge difference. Anthony Richardson, who never started and finished a game in 2023, had nearly the same amount of rushing yards and more rushing touchdowns (four) in just 173 snaps.
Quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen are routinely rushing for more than 600 yards in a season and often with double-digit rushing touchdowns.
Stroud just isn’t the type of player, and it’s unlikely he will see a massive rise in his overall touchdown numbers. He should have a huge passing season, but it’s hard to justify him as the fifth quarterback off the board with his limited ceiling as a runner.
For as good as Stroud was during his rookie season, he had just five games of 20 or more fantasy points. In fact, he scored 22 or more points just twice all season. Dak Prescott had seven performances last year with 22 or more fantasy points. Yet, he is being drafted two to three full rounds later. The same is true for Brock Purdy, who is being selected nearly 80 spots later.
The smart play is to pass on Stroud in the fourth round and pick another positional player instead. There are so many quarterbacks available later this year who offer similar upside at much cheaper prices.
Let your league mates buy the hype and take another young quarterback (Richardson, Jordan Love, Kyler Murray) several rounds later.
>> READ MORE: Stroud's Year 2 Leap Is Coming
