Betting
1/19/24
7 min read
2024 Fantasy Football: Betr Picks for Divisional Round Games
Our team of analysts has created four Betr entry slips for each of the Divisional Round games. Below, they outline their reasoning behind the picks.
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Betr Picks for Divisional Matchups
Texans at Ravens
Texans at Ravens 
This Houston Texans–Baltimore Ravens entry aims to turn $50 into $950 (19x).
Nico Collins LESS than 80.5 Receiving Yards
Nico Collins faces a stout Baltimore Ravens pass defense in frigid conditions. He’s also had LESS than 80.5 receiving yards in 10 of 16 games this year. Opponents are passing the second-most times per game against Baltimore (37), yet receivers average the 25th-most yards per game (139) against the team. The Ravens' secondary has been strong all season, and even when Collins had 11 targets in the meeting between these two teams earlier this season, he was still below 80.5 yards.
C.J. Stroud LESS than 36.5 Yards Longest Pass
This season, C.J. Stroud has a completion of MORE than 36.5 yards in just seven of 16 games (44 percent). The Ravens have allowed a completion of 37 or more yards in just six of 17 games (35 percent). Only three teams have allowed fewer receptions of 37 or more yards during the regular season than the Ravens (six): the Buffalo Bills (three), Kansas City Chiefs (five) and Green Bay Packers (five).
Devin Singletary LESS than 15.5 Receiving Yards
Devin Singletary had fewer than 15.5 receiving yards in 14 of 17 games (82 percent) this season. The Ravens allowed a below average amount of receiving yards per game to running backs this year — and the fifth-lowest yards per reception (6.2) to the position.
Lamar Jackson MORE than 52.5 Rushing Yards
Lamar Jackson's rushing attempts are listed at 9.5 on Betr, so his legs are expected to get heavy use Saturday. In games where Jackson has at least nine rush attempts, he’s had MORE than 52.5 rushing yards in seven of 10 games. Generally, attempts numbers on picks apps are fairly decent barometers for usage. The Texans' strong run defense could force the Ravens to pass more, which would result in increased scramble opportunities for Jackson.
Gus Edwards LESS than 52.5 Rushing Yards
Houston allowed just 76 rushing yards per game this year (fourth-fewest) at the lowest efficiency clip (3.3 YPC). Last week, Jerome Ford ran nine times for just 17 yards, while Kareem Hunt carried the ball eight times for 26 yards. Edwards had LESS than 52.5 rushing yards in 11 of 17 games this season, too.
Packers at 49ers
Packers at 49ers 
This Green Bay Packers–San Francisco 49ers entry aims to turn $10 into $290 (29x).
Aaron Jones LESS than 16.5 Rush Attempts
Aaron Jones is riding a hot streak. He’s averaged 21 carries and 119 rushing yards per game the past month, with at least 20 carries in each of those four games. The Packers won those four contests, too. However, this is a matchups play. The 49ers' defense has often dominated their opponents, forcing them to pass more. Only one running back has reached 17 carries against San Francisco this year: Jerome Ford (with exactly 17) in a game where the Cleveland Browns won 19-17.
Jordan Love MORE than 7.5 Rushing Yards
Jordan Love has MORE than 7.5 rushing yards in 10 of 18 games this year. The 49ers' pass rush should create heavy pressure all game, forcing Love to use his legs.
Christian McCaffrey MORE than 0.5 Rushing Yard
Christian McCaffrey has never been below 0.5 rushing yard when receiving at least one carry in an NFL game.
Brock Purdy MORE than 2.5 Passing Touchdowns
This number — Brock Purdy at more than 2.5 passing touchdowns — is quite high, but our entry payout jumps from 9x to 29x when adding it into our slip. Purdy threw for at least three touchdowns five times this season, and the 49ers are expected to score 30 points via their implied team total.
Brandon Aiyuk MORE than 68.5 Receiving Yards
Brandon Aiyuk has played in 14 full games this season and has crested 68.5 receiving yards in eight of them (57 percent). This pick also correlates nicely with Purdy having a big day through the air.
Buccaneers at Lions
Buccaneers at Lions 
This Tampa Bay Buccaneers–Detroit Lions entry positions us to win $450 if all four of the picks are correct.
Jameson Williams MORE than 18.5 Yards Longest Catch
The last time the Tampa Bay Buccaneers faced the Lions, Jameson Williams had a 45-yard reception. The Buccaneers allowed the second-most receptions of 19 or more yards during the NFL regular season (4.2 per game), and Williams is the Lions’ de facto field stretcher.
Baker Mayfield MORE than 255.5 Passing Yards
Quarterbacks are averaging 268 passing yards per game against Detroit, and that number is being weighed down by two games against Justin Fields, a game against Desmond Ridder, a Bryce Young game and a Jimmy Garoppolo outing that led to most of the Las Vegas Raiders' coaching staff getting fired. Baker Mayfield has thrown for at least 283 yards in four of his past five games, too.
Mike Evans MORE than 25.5 Yards Longest Catch
The Detroit Lions have allowed the most completions of 26 or more yards this season (39), and this Mike Evans pick pairs nicely with Mayfield having a great day through the air.
David Montgomery LESS than 55.5 Rushing Yards
At first glance, this number looks low for David Montgomery. Digging in further, it’s quite high. When the Lions and Buccaneers faced off earlier this year, Detroit's running backs turned 19 carries into just 34 yards. Overall, the Buccaneers have allowed just 3.9 YPC to running backs on the season — but 7.5 yards per pass attempt.
Tampa Bay is exploitable through the air, not on the ground. We just saw how Vita Vea can anchor the Buccaneers' run-stopping unit by plugging the A-gap — he stopped the Eagles' tush push last week. Runs up the middle — Montgomery’s specialty — should result in very low yards per carry in this game.
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Chiefs at Bills
Chiefs at Bills 
This Kansas City Chiefs–Buffalo Bills entry is risking $50 to win $450 if all four picks are correct.
Dalton Kincaid MORE than 16.5 Yards Longest Catch
Dalton Kincaid has averaged seven targets per game over the past three, and he’s had a reception of at least 29 yards in each of those games. The Chiefs' cornerback duo of L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie is a formidable one, but the linebacker trio of Willie Gay, Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill is a below-average unit Kincaid should be able to win against.
Josh Allen MORE than 0.5 Rushing Touchdown
Josh Allen has run for at least one touchdown in 13 of 18 games this year (72 percent). The Bills’ implied team total is 24 points, so touchdown opportunities should be plentiful Sunday night.
Travis Kelce MORE than 62.5 Receiving Yards
Travis Kelce has reached 67 receiving yards in half his games, falling below 61 yards in his other eight contests. In what could be another bad-weather game, Kelce’s ability to get open close to the line of scrimmage should be on display. Kelce caught seven of 10 targets for 71 yards last week in frigid conditions, and Buffalo temperatures could be in the low teens for this game.
Rashee Rice LESS than 6.5 Receptions
We can look to analogs in the betting markets for this pick, where we see betting analysts are expecting Rashee Rice to fall below 6.5 receptions nearly 60 percent of the time. While Rice has at least seven receptions in five of his past seven games, seven receptions per game is a 119 reception pace.
We need to zoom out for this pick and realize just nine players have reached seven receptions against Buffalo all year, with none above eight receptions. There is little margin here for Rice to go above this 6.5 receptions, and the Bills' pass defense ranks as one of the NFL’s best against wide receivers.
