Betting
8/8/24
5 min read
2024 NFL Award Predictions: Who Will Win Offensive Rookie of the Year?
The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award is one of the most fun futures bets that a bettor can make.
The options are endless, and this has traditionally been an award where quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers all have an equal chance to win. And this year, there is no shortage of options available to bettors.
Today, we will look at some of the favorites to win the award and a long shot sleeper that you should consider. Let's look at the players and their odds via DraftKings Sportsbook:
Favorites To Win 2024 Offensive Rookie Of The Year
Caleb Williams, QB, Bears: +135t
Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders: +550
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Cardinals: +650
Malik Nabers, WR, Giants: +1400
Bo Nix, QB, Broncos: +1600
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Vikings: +2000
Drake Maye, QB, Patriots: +2500
Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs: +2500
Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers: +3500
Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders: +4000
It's worth noting that only four running backs have won the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year since 2008, and no tight end has ever won the award. This award has been dominated by quarterbacks and wide receivers, which is reflected by the odds.
It's also notable that no running backs are listed in the top-10 odds, with Jonathon Brooks (+5000) and Trey Benson (+5000) tied for the same odds. Running backs fell during the 2024 NFL Draft as it was highly regarded as a weak class, making it more likely a quarterback or wide receiver will win the award this year.
The Favorite: Caleb Williams, Bears (+135)
It shouldn't surprise anyone that Caleb Williams is the favorite to be the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year. Williams is in arguably the best situation ever for a No. 1 overall pick, as the Bears have loaded up on offensive weapons this offseason. The offensive line is concerning, but it's not a bad unit with some upside.
It is a little shocking to see Williams be favored this much on the field, but most around the league expect fireworks from the Bears this season. If Williams can keep the Bears competitive and stay healthy for 17 games, his numbers should be good enough to help him win the award.
However, the expectations are so high that even modest numbers might be perceived as a letdown. Williams deserves to be the favorite, but he shouldn't be your top pick when it comes to wagering on this award.
Runner Up: Jayden Daniels, Commanders (+550)
After Williams is Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Like the top pick, Daniels will be his team's Week 1 starter on an offense with a lot of talent. The biggest difference between Williams and Daniels is his rushing ability, which should allow him to have success right away. Daniels's athleticism is off the charts, and it should lead to some pretty big performances right out of the gate.
However, given the division they play in and their very difficult schedule in 2024, it's tough to see the Commanders having a lot of team success right away. Voters tend to vote for players who play on teams that have a lot of success, and that isn't likely for Daniels. Still, he isn't a bad bet if you fade Williams as the favorite.
Sleeper: Brock Bowers, Raiders (+4000)
No tight end has won the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. That makes sense when you consider that only two tight ends have ever eclipsed 1,000 yards in their rookie season (Mike Ditka, Kyle Pitts).
Historically, tight end is a position that takes some time to learn coming into the NFL, and most teams don't load up their rookie tight ends with a heavy workload.
However, that has changed in the last several years. Kyle Pitts went for more than 1,000 yards as a rookie in 2021, and Sam LaPorta had a monster rookie season in Detroit in 2023. Even Dalton Kincaid posted solid numbers during his first season in Buffalo.
It appears the league has become more open to the idea of pass-catching tight ends playing a lot as rookies, which makes Brock Bowers an interesting long shot at 40:1.
Bowers is one of the most decorated tight ends to come out of college in some time, and he is already a focal point of the offense in Las Vegas. The Raiders are trying to find creative ways to get him the football, including lining him up in the backfield and in the slot.
Bowers should see the second-most targets in Las Vegas and is a real threat to total more than 1,000 yards. If that happens, he'll certainly be in the conversation for this award.
The Pick: Malik Nabers, Giants (+1400)
If you bet on the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, Malik Nabers is the best option. He checks many boxes, including playing in a big market and being the Giants' top pass catcher.
Nabers is also incredibly talented, and we are seeing flashes of it in training camp. The biggest question surrounding Nabers is the lackluster quarterback play, but he is so talented that it might not be a big issue. He should have plenty of spectacular plays and moments that go viral on social media, and sometimes, that's all it takes to win this award.
It's worth mentioning that we've recently seen Garrett Wilson post impressive numbers with subpar quarterback play and still go on to win the ROY award.
It actually seemed like the poor quarterback play helped Wilson's case in 2022. Nabers is a more talented player and could have an even bigger season in 2024. He is a massive value at 14:1 on most sportsbooks and worth betting on ahead of the upcoming year.
