Betting
1/24/24
9 min read
2024 NFL Conference Championship Matchups To Exploit With Prop Betting
This article is intended for NFL player prop betting purposes for the Conference Championship round but is applicable in DFS.
Player-specific prop bet recommendations are listed below. Statistics are drawn from SportsInfoSolutions and TruMedia databases.
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
The game sits at a 44.5-point over/under on FanDuel and DraftKings. The Baltimore Ravens are implied to score 24.0 points as 3.5-point home favorites. The Kansas City Chiefs are implied to score 20.5 points.
Baltimore’s offense ranks in the top eight in success rate (48.7 percent), expected points added (EPA) per play (0.05), points earned (PE) per pass play (0.184) and run play (0.104), explosive run play rate (9.3 percent) and explosive pass play rate (16.1 percent).
Its defense ranks in the top six in success rate (58.1 percent), EPA allowed per play (0.14), points saved (PS) per pass play (0.322), explosive pass plays allowed rate (11.1 percent) and quarterback pressure rate (39.8 percent).
Baltimore’s vulnerable run defense ranks 30th in explosive run plays allowed rate (9.6 percent) and 16th in PS per play (0.301).
Kansas City’s offense ranks 10th in success rate (45.5 percent), 11th in EPA per play (0.00), second in PE per pass play (0.204) and 13th in PE per pass play run play (0.052), explosive run play rate (8.8 percent) and explosive pass play rate (12.6 percent).
Their defense ranks in the top 10 in success rate (56.7 percent), EPA allowed per play (0.08) and PS per pass play (0.229). It allows explosive pass plays at the league’s lowest rate (10.4 percent). The pass rush ranks 11th in quarterback pressure rate (37.8 percent) and blitzes at the 13th-highest rate (27.3 percent).
Kansas City’s similarly vulnerable run defense ranks 15th in explosive run plays allowed rate (7.4 percent), 24th in PS per play (0.276) and 27th in success rate allowed (43.4 percent).
Among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 250 total passing attempts, Lamar Jackson ranks eighth in NFL passer rating (105.1), sixth in yards from scrimmage per play (7.6) and fourth in yards per passing attempt (8.5) on blitzed dropbacks.
Kansas City boasts a talented, four-deep safety corps, but S Mike Edwards’ (concussion) availability may prove pivotal, particularly in splash zone coverage. Among 80 NFL safeties with at least 15 targets thrown into their primary coverage, Edwards ranks No. 1 in catch rate allowed (26.7 percent) and yards allowed per coverage snap (0.1).
The splash zone is located between 10 yards downfield, between the painted numbers. Targets thrown into this area are worth at least 0.5 points-per-reception (PPR) points more than targets thrown between the painted numbers and the sideline at an equivalent depth.
The phenomenon was first studied by then-Rotoworld analyst Hayden Winks in 2019 and later named by Legendary Upside’s Patrick Kerrane in 2023.
Both ground games should take on featured roles given each team’s respective run-defense weaknesses.
Over/Under
FanDuel: 44.5 points (-110, over)
DraftKings: 44.5 points (-110, over)
Baltimore Ravens Prop Bets
QB Lamar Jackson
FanDuel: anytime touchdown (rushing and/or receiving, +105); 1.5 touchdowns passing (+144, over); 278.5 combined yards passing and rushing (-114, over); 64.5 yards rushing (-114, over); 9.5 rushing attempts (-114)
DraftKings: anytime touchdown (rushing and/or receiving, +110); 1.5 touchdowns passing (+135, over); 32.5-yard longest completion (-120, over pending Edwards’ availability); 17.5-yard longest rushing attempt (-105, over); player with the longest rush (+150)
WR Zay Flowers
FanDuel: 4.5 receptions (+102, over)
DraftKings: 45.5 yards receiving (-115, over); 4.5 receptions (+100, over); 18.5-yard longest reception (-120, over)
Zay Flowers is Jackson’s preferred pass catcher when blitzed. Flowers’ 25.4 percent target per route run (TPRR) rate and 2.18 yards per route run (YPRR) on blitzed dropbacks rank No. 1 among Baltimore pass catchers with at least 15 total targets.
TE Isaiah Likely
FanDuel: TBD
DraftKings: TBD
No. 1 TE Mark Andrews appears likely to return, but Baltimore’s explosive No. 2 TE Isaiah Likely still possesses big-play potential.
Betting websites have not released Likely’s yardage-based prop bets, but his team-high 46.2 percent explosive pass plays rate on blitzed dropbacks (minimum 15 total targets) bodes positively for long-gain-based bets.
WR Rashod Bateman
FanDuel: N/A
DraftKings: 14.5-yard longest reception (-110, over)
Rashod Bateman’s 14.4-yard average depth of target (aDot) is 0.2 yards below his 14.5-yard longest reception bet.
RB Justice Hill
FanDuel: 33.5 yards rushing (-114, over); anytime touchdown (+320)
DraftKings: 32.5 yards rushing (-120, over); anytime touchdown (+310)
Justice Hill led the backfield with 13 rushing attempts last week. He handled one of three running back green zone snaps and 6 of 13 red zone snaps.
Kansas City Chiefs Prop Bets
TE Travis Kelce
FanDuel: anytime touchdown (+115)
DraftKings: anytime touchdown (+120)
WR Rashee Rice
FanDuel: anytime touchdown (+135)
DraftKings: anytime touchdown (+140)
WR Rashee Rice should take double-digit snaps against Baltimore’s slot CB Arthur Maulet. His 3.0 yards allowed per slot receiver coverage snap ties for 44th among 56 slot defensive backs with at least 15 targets thrown to slot receivers in their primary coverage.
RB Isiah Pacheco
FanDuel: anytime touchdown (+135)
DraftKings: anytime touchdown (+125); 64.5 yards rushing (-115, over); 15.5-yard longest rushing attempt (-110); player with the longest rushing attempt (+155)
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
The game sits at a 50.5-point FanDuel over/under and a 51.0-point DraftKings over/under. The San Francisco 49ers are 7.0-point home favorites on both websites and are implied to score 28.75 points and 29.0 points, respectively. The Detroit Lions are implied to score 21.75 and 22.0 points, respectively.
San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan and Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson feature splash zone-centric passing offenses and high-volume run games. 49ers QB Brock Purdy (91) and Detroit QB Jared Goff (90) finished third and fourth, respectively, in regular season splash zone-passing attempts.
San Francisco's and Detroit’s rushing offenses finished eighth and ninth in total rushing attempts, respectively.
Among 30 NFL quarterbacks with at least 35 splash zone-targeted passing attempts, Purdy ranks top 10 in completion rate (61.5 percent) and yards per passing attempt (13.4). Goff ranks top five in completion rate (72.4 percent), yards per passing attempt (17.9) and on-target rate (73.2 percent).
As detailed in 2024 NFL Betting: Recommended Plays For Divisional Round Games, San Francisco’s splash zone coverage cratered after S Talanoa Hufanga’s Week 11 ACL tear. Detroit’s splash zone coverage ranks 21st in success rate allowed (58.9 percent), 23rd in catch rate allowed (58.9 percent) and EPA allowed per play (0.49) and 29th in yards allowed per coverage snap (13.5).
San Francisco’s rushing offense ranks in the top four in yards per rushing attempt (4.8), success rate (47.0 percent) and EPA per play (0.02). Detroit’s rushing offense ranks sixth (4.5), 11th (40.8 percent) and eighth (-0.01), respectively.
San Francisco’s juggernaut rushing offense will be undeterred by Detroit’s respectable run defense.
San Francisco’s middling run-defense data is negatively skewed by DL Arik Armstead’s (foot/knee) multi-week absence, but the unit remains beatable despite his return. Their 20th-ranked 41.3 percent success rate allowed and 23rd-ranked -0.04 EPA allowed per play are particularly glaring.
San Francisco (39.6 percent) and Detroit (40.4 percent) rank top eight in quarterback pressure rate. Detroit’s 14th-ranked 27.3 percent blitz rate is a notable leverage point.
Among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 250 total passing attempts, Purdy ties for third in completion rate (66.7 percent), ranks 11th in yards per rushing attempt (7.6) and ranks first in both yards per passing attempt (9.8) and NFL passer rating (126.7) on blitzed dropbacks.
San Francisco WR Deebo Samuel appeared to re-injure his left shoulder against the Green Bay Packers last weekend. His immediate availability remains unknown.
San Francisco 49ers Prop Bets
QB Brock Purdy
FanDuel: anytime touchdown (rushing and/or receiving, +600); 7.5 yards rushing (-114, over)
DraftKings: anytime touchdown (rushing and/or receiving, +450); 20.5 completions (-115, over)
TE George Kittle
FanDuel: anytime TD (+110); alternative 70.0 yards receiving (+116, over)
DraftKings: anytime TD (+105); 60.5 yards receiving (-115); 24.5-yard longest reception (-110, over); alternative 69.5 yards receiving (+135, over)
Among San Francisco pass catchers with at least 15 total targets, George Kittle’s blitzed-dropback receiving data ranks as follows: third in TPRR (21.8 percent), second in explosive pass plays rate (34.4 percent) and first in targets (32), YPRR (3.29) and explosive pass plays (11).
Among 52 NFL players with at least 95 total targets, Kittle’s aforementioned 34.4 percent explosive pass plays rate ranks No. 1.
WR Brandon Aiyuk
FanDuel: anytime touchdown (-110); 5.5 receptions (+124, over); 80.5 yards receiving (-114, over)
DraftKings: anytime touchdown (-115); 5.5 receptions (+130, over)
Brandon Aiyuk tees off against Detroit CB Cameron Sutton, who ranks 45th or worse in catch rate allowed (60 percent) and yards allowed per coverage snap (3.3). That's among 74 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 20 targets thrown to perimeter wide receivers in their primary coverage.
WR Jauan Jennings
FanDuel: TBD
DraftKings: TBD
Jauan Jennings’ receiving lines have yet to be posted but his part-time field stretching role (10.3-yard aDot) could result in a fruitful long gain.
RB Christian McCaffrey
FanDuel: San Francisco’s first touchdown scorer (+165); two-plus anytime touchdowns (+170); 128.5 yards from scrimmage (-114, over); 35.5 yards receiving (-114, over), 14.5-yard longest reception (-114, over)
DraftKings: San Francisco’s first touchdown scorer (+150); two-plus anytime touchdowns (+145); 18.5-yard longest rushing attempt (-105); player with the longest reception (+2,500)
Detroit allows 6.5 yards per coverage snap to opposing running backs, the fourth-most in the NFL.
Detroit Lions Prop Bets
QB Jared Goff
FanDuel: 255.5 yards passing (-115, over); 1.5 touchdowns passing (-102, over); 35.5-yard longest completion (-114, over)
DraftKings: N/A
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
FanDuel: anytime touchdown (+135); 84.5 yards receiving (-114, over)
DraftKings: anytime touchdown (+130); 7.5 receptions (-105, over)
Among 56 slot defensive backs with at least 15 targets thrown to slot receivers in their primary coverage, San Francisco's Deommodore Lenoir ranks 43rd in catch rate allowed (59.1 percent) and 26th in yards allowed per coverage snap (1.9).
TE Sam LaPorta
FanDuel: N/A
DraftKings: 17.5-yard longest reception (-115, over)
RB Jahmyr Gibbs
FanDuel: anytime touchdown (+145); 11.5-yard longest reception (-114, over); 3.5 receptions (+102); 15.5-yard longest rushing attempt (-114, over)); 74.5 yards from scrimmage (-114)
DraftKings: anytime touchdown (+120)
RB David Montgomery
FanDuel: 5.5 yards receiving (-114, over); anytime touchdown (+175)
DraftKings: N/A
WR Josh Reynolds
FanDuel: 17.5-yard longest reception (-114, over)
DraftKings: N/A
